A closer look at the Saskatoon real estate statistics for March 2009
The Saskatoon Region Association of Realtors recently reported March results for the entire residential category of Saskatoon real estate, which includes single-family homes, condominiums, semi-detached properties, duplexes, mobile homes and vacant lots. Unit sales totaled 283 properties across all of these property types, and an average sale price of $266,720. Let’s have a look at how houses (single-family detached homes) and condominiums did in comparison to the entire residential category.
The inventory of Saskatoon homes for sale continued on an upward path through March. Active listings of detached houses grew by just over 100 units on a month-over-month basis and settled at 867 by month’s end. That’s a fair bit higher compared to March of 2008 when just 470 houses were available for sale on the local MLS system. On the positive side, the number is up by less than 100% over the previous year for the first time in many months. Unit sales of single-family homes came in at 193 properties, down about seventeen percent from 233 sales in March of 2008 but still reached their highest level since July of last year when 228 houses were sold.
Available Saskatoon condominiums also came in higher on a month-over-month basis climbing from 412 units at the end of February to finish at 461 properties a month later. Sales picked up over the previous month to 66 units, just half the number that traded in March of last year.
Based on current sales and inventory, condo sellers are faced with a seven-month supply of inventory while single-family home owners have just four and one half months of supply to contend with. There are some bright spots on the inventory front though. Overall, we have about a five-month supply of residential real estate in Saskatoon, which is the lowest it has been since July of 2008. From August through December, the supply hovered between seven and eight months.
The average selling price of a detached house fell from a lofty $305,130 last month, and finished March at $286,634, about 12.5% lower than the average sale price of $326,633 from March of last year. The median price had a shorter fall on a month-over-month basis, down just $5,000 to $275,000, but about fourteen percent lower than last March’s number of $320,000. The three-month average managed a small gain over February and finished at $293,973, down just over six percent compared to the same month last year.
The average price per square foot for single-homes also edged down in March, falling to $238 from $252 the month before, and finishing about fifteen percent off of the near peak number of $279 that we saw last March. Areas four and five both managed a small month-over-month gain but all five Saskatoon real estate areas took a bath compared to last year with area three falling most sharply at twenty-one percent and area 2 fairing most favorably, down just twelve percent from last March.
At first glance condos seem to have performed somewhat better then single-family homes on a year over year basis, at least as far as averages and medians are concerned. The average selling price of a Saskatoon condo declined just over $10,000 from February and was down just $4,700 from the same month last year when it reached $219,975. The median price of a condo fell $13,000 from $212,500 in February to $199,450 in March, down just five percent from March of 2008. The three-month average fell nearly $8,000 from the month before but actually finished higher on a year-over-year basis at $220,182, up from $215,822 last year.
When you’re talking about just 66 sales, across all five real estate areas, some crazy stuff can start to happen, so let’s dig a little to see what’s really happening here.
First of all, the average size of condo that traded in March 2009 was 1,007 square feet compared to 908 square feet for condos selling during the same month last year. Some of strength in condo prices can be attributed to that. Larger units should fetch a higher price. Secondly, there is a real shift in the location of the units that are selling this year. Last year, 22 of 130 condo sales, or seventeen percent of sales, occurred on Saskatoon’s more affordable west end. This year, we see 2 of 66 units, or about three percent of condo sales occurring on the west end. If we compare apples to apples (at least as closely as we can) here’s what we find. The average price of an area 1 condo was $241,447 last March and fell to $207,293 this year. Area 2 came in at $288,721 during March of 2008 and fell to $229,733 this year. Area 3 took some huge year-over-year gains climbing to $240,488 from just $186,859 last year but the average size of the units traded also grew from 698 square feet to 1,057 square feet. Area 4 hasn’t seen a condo sale for darned near a year, and finally, area 5 fell from $189,670 last March to just $169,000 this March.
Once again, average price per square foot numbers probably paint a slightly more accurate picture of Saskatoon condo prices. After seeing a healthy upward bump in January, the average cost per square foot for a condo slid to $214 from $223 the month before, and down about twelve percent from March of 2008 when it hit $242. On a year-over-year basis the average cost per square foot fell fifteen percent in area 1, thirteen percent in area 2, sixteen percent in area 3, and just four percent in area 5.
Remember, averages and cost per square foot numbers can provide some useful insights into pricing trends but they’re not as useful when engaging in an actual transaction. If you’re buying or selling you should be seeking current information on active listings and recent sales, which are most comparable to your property in terms of location, size, features and amenities.
See a Google map displaying the boundaries of Saskatoon real estate “areas” here
Data collection and calculation for our statistical reports
I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions. All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.
Follow our daily updates on Twitter @Norm_Fisher.
Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate
33 comments so far. We'd love to hear your thoughts.
April 25th, 2009 at 12:08 PM
I suppose the fact that condos are now roughly two thirds the cost that they once were doesn’t make them a good deal today but they’re certainly now in the range of “less than you can rent one for,” at least in some cases. I’d also point out that these stats on the graph include everything in the “condo” category, both apartments and town homes. If you look strictly at apartments, prices are already well under $200K, on average. A good townhouse is selling between $210,000 and $225,000 at the entry level. However, I noticed yesterday a couple of decent looking east side single family homes sold yesterday in the $250K range (1100′ish, with a garage).
Still, the units (especially apartments) appearing on the MLS are but a small fraction of what’s actually available right now. I’d agree that there could be more bleeding before this is over.
April 25th, 2009 at 12:09 PM
Norm, “…less than you can rent one for”. Only while interest rates remain at these levels, and only while rent remains artificially high. Add 2-3 points of interest and it’s an entirely different scenario altogether.
April 25th, 2009 at 12:11 PM
There’s a real difference between a large purpose-built unit (the ones on the river, for example) and a converted rental in a three-story walkup.
The purpose built ones will probably hold their values somewhat — although I don’t know how many 500K apartments the city can absorb!
The rental conversions will be a bloodbath: the only reason rents are high is because conversion removed those units from the rental market. Because no-one actually wants to live, permanently, in a 50 year old walk-up, they’ll come back onto the rental market, and rents will fall again.
April 25th, 2009 at 12:11 PM
Thanks Norm – excellent analysis, as usual. I visit this site regularly because of the excellent resource and because there are some individuals who provide some excellent discussion about Saskatoon real estate. (whether I agree with them or not)
April 25th, 2009 at 12:12 PM
I second Pam’s comments.
Way to go Norm!
April 25th, 2009 at 12:12 PM
Wow, this just in… Alberta to post staggering $4.7B deficit (no return to surplus until 2012-2013; will need to cut $2B next year)
http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/fp/Alberta+post+record+deficit/1474448/story.html
April 25th, 2009 at 12:12 PM
Hey Norm –
We all appreciate the vast amount of work that goes into the posts, and particularly the stats!
But I don’t think that people will be driven away from Saskatoon by blog comments, somehow.
April 25th, 2009 at 12:13 PM
“But I don’t think that people will be driven away from Saskatoon by blog comments, somehow.”
True, but that’s not the point. People may be driven away from the blog, though, and that would be a real shame, because there’s alot of great discussion going on here.
Thanks again to Norm for providing a place for us to hang out, and for all your hard work too.
April 25th, 2009 at 12:14 PM
jrochest,
Thanks.
“But I don’t think that people will be driven away from Saskatoon by blog comments, somehow.”
I don’t either. I simply meant to state that this is the obvious intent. Whether it’s realistic or not I don’t feel obligated to accommodate the effort any longer.
It is quite possible that this kind of sarcastic rhetoric, expressed rather liberally, over and over again through numerous posts might drive people away from this blog, and more importantly (at least where I’m concerned), drive prospective clients from my business.
To be clear, I’m not suggesting for a moment that it’s not okay to say “it’s cheaper to live elsewhere” or “young people will really have to consider the higher incomes being offered elsewhere,” or even, “house prices are still way too high in Saskatoon.” I respect that people have these opinions, and truth be told, I would be more inclined to agree with many of renters concerns than to disagree with them. It’s not substance that I’m talking about, but rather, style. Or lack of it.
Quite simply, it’s just plain rude to pepper my posts with propaganda by repeating oneself over and over. It’s called spamming and this has just become a spam free zone.
April 25th, 2009 at 12:14 PM
Norm:
I really like your new rules about discussion in your blog
I real got lots of information from your blog.
Jason Liu
April 25th, 2009 at 12:15 PM
Good call on the rules Norm. There has been a lot of informative posts on here that I’ve read but also a lot of “The Sky is Falling/Saskatoon is Terrible/NDP convention minutes” comments on here. Less spam the better in my opinion.
On a real estate topic: I think the timing of buying will be an interesting one. I plan to buy late summer or later but its looking like real estate prices are heading down. On the flip side interest rates really can only go up……
April 25th, 2009 at 12:15 PM
Jason,
Thank you.
Potential Buyer,
“but its looking like real estate prices are heading down.”
How dare you! Just kidding.
Excellent points, and I’m feeling the same way. I think there’s a wave of sellers who are just figuring out that this is spring. Perhaps not the spring that they’d hoped for but the only one we’re getting.
captcha: briefs change (where do they come up with this stuff?)
April 25th, 2009 at 12:16 PM
I’ve always tried to tie in with subject matter offered by other posters.
I also have direct experience with living, loving and leaving Saskatoon.
This is all strictly in my own defense: But just so you understand, it isn’t NDP convention minutes, just as much as that remark *is* Conservative persuasion.
Most of what I say is in fact constructive, encouraging people to help Saskatoon grow from within. I think I’m 100% on calling out the bad & the good ideas too.
It might take some digging but I have expressed just as long a list of compliments for Saskatoon as I do complaints. I think it was only this weekend that my wife and I were craving three specific restaurants in Saskatoon.
As far as listing and buying with Norm, I’d say anyone has the best interest in doing so. If I had to buy a home in Saskatoon, there’s no other person I would consider.
Norm’s openness and honesty are rare commodities all their own. This blog is evidence of that and it doesn’t take a genius to see how he puts his neck out with it.
April 25th, 2009 at 12:16 PM
Here’s an interesting couple of related articles this morning:
New home construction rebounds
http://tinyurl.com/c9fdg8
“Most of the increase stemmed from a large increase in condominiums in Ontario and Quebec, a market segment that some experts warn is volatile and in danger of being overbuilt.”
TD’s new housing report adresses overbuilding specifically:
‘Overpriced and Overbuilt: Canadian Housing Market Returns to Fundamentals’, TD Economics
http://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing.pdf
Saskatchewan specific information is on pages 15 and 16. If you can, also take a look at the existing and projected average home price table on page 8. The projections look too bearish to me- I get the feeling that our employment and immigration numbers will be stronger than they’re projecting. What say ye?
April 25th, 2009 at 12:16 PM
As a long time fan of the blog, I admit to finding the utter negativity from some posters regarding this city we all choose to call home incredibly inappropriate. I don’t think we need to be all sunshine and roses but continuous posts about how much better another city is from one who recently moved truly screams more of bitterness than anything else making it not informative but rude.
I appreciate very much all of this information and would certainly be calling on your expertise for our upcoming purchase (’tis possible we already have).
April 25th, 2009 at 12:17 PM
I would agree with Jason, as of today in some isolated cases it may be cheaper to own then rent, but I think rent lags behind buying prices on the way up and for sure on the way down. For the big property managers, some have already thrown in the towel and lowered prices or offered other incentives, yet others have started to employ other strategies such as cleaning up the debrie and trash on their property’s which they never used to worry about, even know of a westside property that has enlisted telemarketers to see if prospects have found accomadation yet. For expieranced property managers they know their fate but their not going to lower without a fight.
April 25th, 2009 at 12:17 PM
A big thanks to Crikey for locating and posting the url for the TD housing report. Looks like an interesting read when one has a moment. I have a son who would like to enter as a first time buyer, into the rowhouse market, and is watching/waiting to try to get a feel on when this type of housing has reached a stable price that truly represents the market for 2009, 2010 and onwards.
April 25th, 2009 at 12:19 PM
Alex,
You were just in the wrong place at the wrong time and caught a bit of my shrapnel. Thank you.
SoonToBeBuying,
Thank you.
“I don’t think we need to be all sunshine and roses…”
I agree, and I certainly don’t want a bunch of spin but there can be spinning from both courts and this kind of “talking point” commenting is a good example. One only has to look to people like Crikey, George, jrochest and Bookrat to know that a bear can earn a high degree of respect on this blog. These are all people I admire (not to exclude anyone else, but these four people all have a fairly lengthy history of contribution here and have made no secret of the fact that they think prices are on the way down).
I have noticed though that a bullish spinner sure does attract a lot more attention. If this same guy was dropping sunshine and roses talking points he’d have been digitally drawn and quartered well back in the archives.
I think that fairness is the key here, and as I said to a friend just this morning, “I need to be fair to all participants in this real estate market.” I definitely want to be fair to this community where I was born and where I am raising my own family.
Rick,
“others have started to employ other strategies such as cleaning up the debrie and trash on their property’s which they never used to worry about”
Lol. Pretty bad when “cleaning” has to become part of the new strategy.
Yes, with any luck renters will see a a break in the future. Some of them have been whipped pretty badly over the past two years.
I think the key factor for buyers will be interest rates. While I agree that there is little risk of imminent increases catching them at this low point will be a huge advantage assuming you’re prepared and want to buy. A 50% increase in the cost of financing (4% to 6%) requires one big price correction just to break even.
Crikey,
Thanks for the link. I’ll check it out later, but it’s also Royal LePage House Price Survey day. Oh yay! What the heck did I say this time from my tightrope?
April 25th, 2009 at 12:19 PM
Crikey
‘Overpriced and Overbuilt: Canadian Housing Market Returns to Fundamentals’, TD Economics
http://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing.pdf
I am following the same attitude as that TD report. It certainly contradicts what Garth Turner is saying (falling sky). Time will reveal who is correct and I look forward to see how the next few years go.
April 25th, 2009 at 12:20 PM
Not all sellers are getting the message regarding reduced prices.
For instance, there are these two particular listings, to which I refer, but will not specifically cite. They are located in the same building – a “newer” development. Hint: Look no further than Norm’s sidebar for the listing. The comparative listing is not on Norm’s site – might want to check another site with an “interactive map” (wink wink)
One of them is a better unit than the other. The better of the two units is priced 100K dollars less than the lesser quality unit. This is simply mind-blowing.
This major price disparity is very scary. It says to me that the market is unsure what price to ask for the goods. This means that the value is hard to discern, and likely wildly variable. In my opinion, it is still not the time to buy for those of us waiting on the sidelines – although the market activity this spring seems to indicate not all share my opinion.
April 25th, 2009 at 12:20 PM
Crikey, re: the TD Economics study.
“If you can, also take a look at the existing and projected average home price table on page 8. The projections look too bearish to me- I get the feeling that our employment and immigration numbers will be stronger than they’re projecting. What say ye?”
I say they’re bang-on with the average price estimates for 2009-2010, and they may not be bearish enough. I believe there is potential for the average numbers to fall back to 2007 or even late 2006 levels.
April 25th, 2009 at 12:21 PM
James P.,
Hmmm. Could you give us another hint?
“Not all sellers are getting the message regarding reduced prices.”
There will never be a time when all sellers are getting the message, and I agree that a correction period is a time when far fewer are getting it. However, there is a definite sweet spot for every listing that will bring a willing buyer in a reasonable period of time. If you’re far enough away from that spot no amount of time will fix your problem (at least no reasonable period of time).
The property you’ve pointed to is a good example and I would be willing to bet that almost everything for sale in that “new development” has a better chance of selling that they do. Sadly, they are offering it “at the price they paid last year.” Probably someone that has very few options right now.
I would also say that the type of property you’re interested in should factor in to the decision. It’s conceivable to me that we could find ourselves in a position where we actually have a bit of a shortage of good single-family homes, say, for less than $300K, perhaps even this year. With housing starts through the floor that inventory is getting whittled away. East side bungalows under $300K amount to 146 units with 61 sales in the last 30 days. That’s just over 2.5 months of supply, and technically, a seller’s market.
Currently, there’s about a twelve year supply of condos.
Kidding, of course, but it’s not real pretty.
April 25th, 2009 at 12:21 PM
Crikey,
“If you can, also take a look at the existing and projected average home price table on page 8. The projections look too bearish to me- I get the feeling that our employment and immigration numbers will be stronger than they’re projecting. What say ye?”
I gotta go with Jason on that. Doesn’t 224.6 to 196.4 amount to just a 12.5% decrease? In Saskatoon we’re beyond that in some categories and awfully close even in some of the more prime housing types.
Look out rural Saskatchewan (with some odd exceptions). There was no shortage of buyers that must have been on glue last year buying property in places I never heard of because the future was in Saskatchewan. They’ll be lucky to sell them at half the price. ultimately.
April 25th, 2009 at 12:22 PM
Crikey,
I read that TD report as well this morning. Suprisingly, I think it’s fairly accurate. I don’t agree with the timelines, however their prediction of a 24% drop in home prices nationwide isn’t off base. We’re already down between 10 – 15%. Another 10% is certainly probable. I think it will be more than that. I see this effecting us less than other areas of Canada though.
The immigration point you bring up is an interesting one. I can’t tell you how many immigrants have applied to my business over the past 6 months. They’re all coming from Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal. They’re coming to Saskatchewan because of our immigrant nominee program. If they’re here for 2 years they can bring all of their family to Canada.
This reason in conjunction with our fundamentally solid economy will make Saskatchewan one of the best places to be (economically) during this *** storm. Although we’re still bound to get a little poop on us.
April 25th, 2009 at 12:22 PM
House prices going down, while wages are still ineffective.
Stagflation is going to hit Canada hard.
April 25th, 2009 at 12:23 PM
Careful Norm, it will be a delicate balance. The more you moderate and limit discussion, the less discussion and viewers you might end up with. Just a thought.
April 25th, 2009 at 12:23 PM
“The immigration point you bring up is an interesting one. I can’t tell you how many immigrants have applied to my business over the past 6 months.”
I’m seeing that too, Northstar. I work in the medical field, and there still seems to be quite an influx of physicians and nurses (as well as other health specialties) that we’re continuing to recruit from other countries (and other provinces within Canada). I realize that I’m seeing a very small slice of the employment picture here, but it’s encouraging nonetheless. Whether or not it’s sustainable remains to be seen, I suppose.
Norm,
“Doesn’t 224.6 to 196.4 amount to just a 12.5% decrease?”
You’re absolutely right, and like you say in some markets we’ve seen declines greater than that already. I must have a mental barrier at any average below 200K. I did move here from Vancouver!
April 25th, 2009 at 12:24 PM
L.oki,
Thanks. I think I’ll worry about my clients first, my potential clients second, and then whether or not the guys who would like to be anywhere but here will come back or not.
We’ve had thousands of comments and I could count those I’ve removed on a couple of sets of hands. People won’t come back if they think it’s an unfair environment but I’ve had enough feedback to realize that I am allowing damage to occur if it’s a completely anything goes environment.
April 25th, 2009 at 12:24 PM
Northstar,
“I don’t agree with the timelines, however their prediction of a 24% drop in home prices nationwide isn’t off base.”
Hey, it’s great to see you back here man.
Am I missing something here? According to their chart, TD is predicting a nationwide decline from $303,600 to $254,800. That looks like just over 16% to me, and not 24.n
April 25th, 2009 at 12:24 PM
Norm, it’s your board and at the end of the day you’re the one that has to generate a living from this; the rest of us are merely tourists.
Please continue with the great effort and call them as you see fit (you’ll have my unconditional support).
Crikey, I have observed this firsthand as well, but there are also a lot of healthcare professionals planning to retire in the near future and we may just be replacing existing jobs as they are naturally phased-out. Also, being predominantly government jobs, this isn’t exactly expanding the private sector, and the funding for this usually comes in the form of one tax or another.
captcha: Sniffin the
April 25th, 2009 at 12:25 PM
Norm,
On page 8 of that report it says:
“Indeed, as of February, the (seasonally –adjusted) average nation-wide price had already declined from its peak of $324,000 to $282,000 – a drop of 13%.”
Then it goes on to say this:
“we nonetheless forecast further declines over 2009-10, anticipating a peak-to-trough plunge of 24%.”
“Stagflation is going to hit Canada hard.”
I’ll put my money on hyperinflation… Especially if I was a U.S. resident.
April 25th, 2009 at 12:26 PM
Thank you Northstar
April 25th, 2009 at 12:26 PM
Thanks for moderating out those comments Norm. I have no idea why people who hate Saskatoon want to spend time on a blog about Saskatoon real estate anyway. I love this city and I was tired of seeing the random attacks too.
I keep waiting for those condo conversions to come back to the rental market so that rents go down. I have several friends renting right now who are being squeezed by all the rent increases.