http://www.mortgagegrp.com/site/SK/rates.asp

I suspect these low rates combined with continued economic stabilization will cause us to continue to set sales records well into fall. However, much as I like to stay positive I do think that the weakness in the high-end market is telling and would seem to signal that we’re overpriced.

http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/11092009/2/biz-finance-canadians-jump-ei-premiums-gov-t-works-balance.html

“Currently, earnings up to $42,300 are taxed at a rate of 1.73 per cent for employment insurance, and the government is allowed to increase that rate by 0.15 percentage points each year.

This means that by 2014, anyone earning $42,300 or more will likely be paying $1,049.04 per year at a taxation rate of 2.48 per cent – $317.25 more or a 43 per cent increase from the current maximum premium of $731.79. “

Thank you.

By default, I thought that a “pumper” was someone who is misrepresenting the facts for selfish intentions, and that to be called a “pumper” would be an assault on one’s character.

I agree with your thoughts on “advice” and all of that. My point, is that I took a pretty good shit kicking for suggesting to you, and you only, that buying stock might not be a bad idea back then. I got it from several directions and was called reckless, foolhardy, etc. “If you want to piss your money away Norm, you just go ahead, but please don’t try to convince others to go down with you.” It turns out that my thinking was actually correct.

Over time, I have actually become quite reluctant to share my opinions about the future. I’m sure it’s easier for those who don’t have a name attached to their comments but I’m really no longer prepared to publicly express my gut feeling about where the market is headed, up or down. If there are others who feel the way I do, I just think that’s too bad.

George, “But paying down debt is never a bad thing…” I couldn’t agree more. Some might consider this way of thinking ‘old school’, but it served the last few generations well. “And most would say I have lost out on making a bunch of money.” (‘the glass is half empty’). A few of us might say you didn’t lose any money in the market, either (‘the glass is half full’).

As for 10 months ago when the financial world was crashing, I thought when oil hit 30 it would be good buy, if it hit 20 a great buy. I thought TSX would hit 5000. I was wrong both times and along with the amount of government intervention. Honestly I am still not in the market today for a few reasons. And most would say I have lost out on making a bunch of money. But paying down debt is never a bad thing because in the long term debt is NEVER cheap. Hindsight is twenty twenty and a person can only gather all info, make the best decision they can and then be able to live with it.

Maybe I wrong about this but if someone asks for advice on a blog from unknown posters about stock picks and goes ahead with what these people say without talking with a financial advisor, should this person be in the market in the first place? We can all recommend some stock or position and there is nothing wrong about that but at the end of the day what are our credentials about the stock market? None of us do this for a living. I come here not because I am smart but to surround myself with smart people so I can learn. I am a homeowner ( actually still a mortgage owner), others are renters, landlords, bulls and bears. There is a wide range of good people who post here and an even wider range who just read the comments.
“There is nothing inherently righteous about a bearish view of the future, and there is nothing evil about a bullish view. That said, a little humility might be in order”
100% agree and thanks for the wake up. Sometimes I need a good kick.

I’d hazard a guess that, for many, whether they were able to buy (and the circumstances) or priced out of the market largely determine their perspective. That being said, there are still many opportunities that present themselves in any market. Timing is everything.

If I’ve learned anything from this most recent economic turmoil it’s that flexibility and open-mindedness are your friends. I do apologise about any perceived dogmatism on my part in the past. If it occurred, it certainly wasn’t motivated by a desire to hurt anyone or take advantage of them. Norm, you’re absolutely right- one should always be aware of the motivation of the person behind any particular view, be it positive or negative.

New Housing Price Index: July 2009
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/090911/dq090911b-eng.htm
“Contractors selling prices increased 0.3% in July following a 0.2% decline in June. This was the first increase at the Canada level since September 2008.”

Continued declines in the New Housing Price Index in Western Canada
“Year over year, the New Housing Price Index was down 3.2%. The largest declines remained in Western Canada, where prices continued to fall from previous highs. In the Prairie region, 12-month declines were recorded… Saskatoon (-10.6%).”

Suffice it to say, it didn’t get as bad as some of us thought it might, but we didn’t see the market return to zealous overbidding like it did in 2007 and early 2007, either. Then again, less than a year ago we were looking at a $15-billion surplus and now we’re staring into the abyss of a cumulative $164-billion+ deficit. We still went into recession despite the stimulus, and now we’re set to inherit a new range of problems in the form of massive government program and spending cutbacks, increased taxes and repeals and potentially higher interest rates with inflation.

The only thing sustaining the current housing bubble is low interest rates and long amortization periods. Change one and/or the other and it’s an entirely different market.

George is a very decent man. I’m bothered that the mere suggestion that prices may rise at some future point brings character attacks. It’s probably completely unintentional but i think that it discourages open discussion.

I was just thinking the other day that it is amazing that some of our most bearish commentators, whose predictions for this year have turned out so, so wrong, still manage to be self-righteous about their ‘better informed’ beliefs about what is really going on.

“And while the TSX may be up 40%, do keep in mind that some stocks have never truly recovered – and in fact some have dropped even further in value or have been delisted altogether (GM anyone?)”

Yah, you must be thanking your lucky stars you stayed in cash through all that.

And while the TSX may be up 40%, do keep in mind that some stocks have never truly recovered – and in fact some have dropped even further in value or have been delisted altogether (GM anyone?)

“And maybe they are right that prices will climb higher.”

He didn’t say that George! He said prices are “still trending lower, modestly” which would suggest that there may be better prices ahead for those who wait. His comment about prices heating up was clearly qualified with an “if this level of activity is sustained.”

Frankly, and with all due respect, I find the attack on this economist to be a rather rude display of arrogance. As one of the more outspoken and opinionated contributors to this blog you seem completely tuned out to the fact that markets go up and down, and that some people get hurt regardless of the direction it moves. You seem oblivious to the fact that spin is spin, regardless of what direction the market is being spun in.

If Robet Hogue (the author of this report) believed that prices may trend higher, should he not say so? Wouldn’t failing to say so be a misrepresentation? Wouldn’t that be an attempt to manipulate? Wouldn’t that be spin? Would there be some righteousness to that because he would be trying to manipulate down instead of up? Does that feel nice to you? Warm, fuzzy, for the little guy? If motives must be questioned for believing the market will go up, shouldn’t the motives of those who predict a decrease be questioned? Shouldn’t they be accountable when they’re wrong?

Let me remind you of a certain discussion that occurred here some time back in December or January. Someone suggested that perhaps the North American stock markets were close to bottoming out and that it might be a good time to consider getting back in. Many people stepped forward to let that person know how reckless he was being in making such a suggestion. Markets were going to go far lower before they improved. Oh, yes! If my memory serves me correctly, someone actually implied that he was a fool. Today, the TSX is about 40% higher than it was on that day. A bearish forecast that misses the mark can be every bit as costly as a bullish forecast that misses the mark. Oh, on little guys, did you ever get the impression that perhaps one or two of them were swaying by the pessimism about the stock markets. Remember how Armoth was working overtime and pouring his money into the markets certain that he’d benefit from a turnaround? Remember how, before the markets took off again, he wondered if maybe you guys were right? He was second guessing if he should just sell everything and pay off some debt? I wonder if he actually did that. Did he sell those cheap stocks to pay off debt that was costing him nothing? Hmmm.

Let’s assume for a moment that Armoth did sell everything he had, paid off some cheap debt, and lost tens of thousands of dollars at the end of this game based entirely on your advice. Should you be accountable for that? Is it your fault? Of course not! Armoth is a big boy, a full grown adult. Armoth is responsible for Armoth.

There is nothing inherently righteous about a bearish view of the future, and there is nothing evil about a bullish view. That said, a little humility might be in order, especially since RBC has been pretty much right up to this point.

$300k is the desirable price point right now, so it’s entirely possible houses in that range will see a slight increase due to lack of inventory (several months at best) and demand (most first-time homebuyers fall into this range). Over $400k and especially over $500k, not so much – in fact we could see further price reductions there as more properties come on the market and people look to downgrade.

Question: how accurate is it that most new homebuyers are opting for variable-rate mortgages (ie: prime + x%) rather than fixed rates?

Jason,
just think, last year Harper said they would never go back into deficit. Fast forward, one year and we may have 6 years of deficits. And when 2015 rolls around we may have another recession. (It is possible it seems like banks and governments creat recessions quicker than in the past) Sorry Norm, I just had to get a shot in at the banks

The shortfall last fiscal year hit $5.8-billion, and is now expected to reach $55.9-billion this fiscal year — up from the $50.2-billion shortfall anticipated in June and the $33.7-billion in last year’s budget. The deficit is to swell to $45.3-billion next fiscal year, up from a previously expected $29.8-billion.”

So, we’re only $22.2-billion over budget this year and an anticipated (hold breath) $15.5-billion next year. Just to put this in ‘real’ terms, $164-billion is almost $55,000 for every person living in this country. I like this quote the best – it sums everything up (translation: taxes!):

“Most of the restraint will be in program spending, it said, even though recent history indicates this has not proved successful.”
……….

In other news, the Bank of Canada sees a quicker recovery…

Bank of Canada holds rates, sees quicker recovery
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1979270

The examples you’ve cited are of marketing. Last time I checked encouraging business and profit was still allowed.

These reports are written by people, not banks. By the way, Scotiabank’s Adrienne Warren said this back in September 2007, “Saskatoon and Edmonton are the most overvalued real estate markets in Canada.” As far as I know, Scotiabank was still issuing mortgages here though. Shame on them!

“Not surprised that affordability is better with low rates and price drops.”

Yes, that seems to be the way it works.

I think you’re being unfair.

Given RBC’s history of research and reporting, it seems to me that they call it as they see it. Flip back through past posts and you’ll be hard to make an arguments that they’re “pumpers.”

Our more bearish readers thought RBC was walking on water when they proclaimed that Saskatoon was “overvalued” and later when they said Saskatoon would follow Calgary and Edmonton into price declines.

It is almost like wolves ( banks) in sheeps clothing telling the sheep ( buyers who are scared of being priced out) to come into the playpen ( housing market). The problem is that the sheep trust the farmer ( government) in that the farmer is looking after the sheeps best interest. What the sheep do not know is that the wolves and farmer are back door best buddies. Poor sheep.