Saskatoon home sales soften in July: SRAR
The Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS® (SRAR) released the residential real estate statistics for July of 2010 today, accompanied by this release.
Home buying activity was down slightly in the month of July with 357 homes selling, a decline of 18% from July of 2009 when 438 homes sold. Year to date, unit sale numbers are down 4% with 2217 homes having sold compared to 2304 by this time of the year in 2009. The majority of the sales activity remained in the $300,000 to $350,000 price range.
Click the image for a larger version of the graph.
The average selling price remained strong at $289,715, up 2% from July 2009 when it was $283,531. Year to date, the average selling price is $290,515, up 5% from 2009 when it was $277,490. The higher average selling price indicates continued strength in the mid-price range homes. In July it took an average of 39 days to sell a home.
Click the image for a larger version of the graph.
Home buyers had 1334 properties to select from at the end of July. Inventory levels decreased from the close of June when 1412 homes were on the market. Listing inventory continues to balance with REALTORS® listing 550 properties in the month of July, down 7% from the same month last year when 594 homes were placed on the market. Year to date, listing numbers are on par with 2009 at 4389.
Click the image for a larger version of the graph.
Softening sales and listing trends were also seen in the areas around Saskatoon (e.g. Martensville, Warman, Clavet and Dundurn). 71 properties sold, down 34% from July 2009 when 108 properties changed hands. The average price increased to $284,158, up 12% from July 2009 when it was $254,123. Listing numbers were down 15% with 230 properties being placed on the market. Year to date, 1643 have been placed on the market in these outlying areas.
Market demand remains strong, interest rates are favorable and job growth continues. Similar market conditions are expected through the remainder of the summer.
I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions. All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.
Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate
11 comments so far. We'd love to hear your thoughts.
August 3rd, 2010 at 10:12 PM
Thanks for this, Norm.
I still continue to be surprised how similar the listing numbers are to last year… it looks like they might continue trending this way too. Sales are about what I expected, but it’s interesting to see how similar sales numbers have been for July in the last five years (with the obvious exception of 2007). There’s such a big divergence in August.
Thanks ever so much for inserting the 5-year average into the price and listings graphs, as well- very nice!
August 3rd, 2010 at 10:39 PM
Jen,
Great observations.
The units sale numbers certainly are pretty clumped together for July. Next four months, they really are all over the place. Any predictions for August?
The 5-year averages weren’t a problem. We’re putting in some long days right now but if we can find the time I’ll try to have them crunched back to January to complete the line.
August 3rd, 2010 at 11:25 PM
An 18% drop in sales seems more than “slight” include the 34% drop in surrounding areas and more than I would have expected.
Now where are all the newspaper headlines letting us know that Regina and Saskatoon sales are down?
Funny, there was often daily coverage of every bit of positive news – typically headline, TV and newspaper , from month over month, to year over year sales increases, but no coverage of all these drops in sales. Just seems fair that if an increase in sales of 18% was Front Page each month on the way up, a balanced newspaper, would cover just as much an equivalent drop in sales.
May slow the drop in prices, but sure they’ll end up at the same place.
Just disappointing how biased coverage has been.
Makes Norm’s site invaluable.
August 4th, 2010 at 6:59 AM
Nick,
“Slight” also struck me as an odd word for this situation. Perhaps the writer was thinking in terms relative to longer term averages since four of the last five July’s were pretty much about equal for unit sales.
This release only came out at about 3:00 PM yesterday. Here’s the story from this morning’s Star Phoenix.
While sales do appear to be fairly “typical” for July, I would add one other point that wasn’t really touched on in the release or the SP story. Inventory is currently about 10% higher than it was last year when demand was 18% higher. Active listings are roughly 30% higher than it “typically” is in July. This factor does create a very different market for sellers.
August 4th, 2010 at 9:16 AM
“Any predictions for August?”
I’d say a 2006-type level of activity would be a safe bet- perhaps slightly lower unless sellers get a bit more agressive with price adjustments. What say ye? Can you see anything that may increase sales in the next month or so?
August 4th, 2010 at 10:39 AM
I see that “One-Source” Cassandra Kyle’s write-up is buried on page C8 with no front-page story banner, unlike most of the coverage on the way up. Typical of the StarPhoenix’s stenographic “journalism.”
Of course, what’s one to expect when SRAR’s membership buys so much advertising from the SP?
August 4th, 2010 at 2:33 PM
Jen,
That’s pretty much where I was too (350-ish), using the SWAG prediction method.
J Tramiel,
I suppose when one considers that unit sales were roughly at the five-year average, it’s not quite as interesting a story as “housing prices double.”
August 4th, 2010 at 9:09 PM
Hey guys. It’s been a long time. Like the new look Norm. I gotta hand it to the bulls, the market “did its thang” as we say in the southern US. I didn’t expect governments around the world to flood the system the way they did.
“Now where are all the newspaper headlines letting us know that Regina and Saskatoon sales are down?”
That’s right Nick. All I have heard on the radio in Regina for the past two months is that prices are up, up, up, but no reporting about how sales are down, down, down. Although, the talk radio station here has a new slogan: We give POSITIVE news about the Saskatchewan economy or some kind of nonsense like that. I don’t need POSITIVE cheerleading, just give me the darn FACTS.
As far as predictions go, I can’t really say. If I had to choose between up or down, I would say sales in Regina and Saskatoon will be down and probably down big this month. If the US Fed’s balance sheet continues to shrink like it has (don’t listen to the infomercial mainstream media), the stock market may rollover in the fall and US and Canadian real estate may be coming along for the ride too. Get your popcorn ready.
For those that care, the situation with US real estate is dire. Mortgage applications have plummeted since the $8000 home buyer scam credit ended. There is no demand for mortgages. Plus, the banks are holding back on a lot of inventory. And the Case/Shiller index doesn’t even tell half the story (data that lags as bad as a moving average on a price chart). Things are about to get even more interesting. Watch and see.
August 5th, 2010 at 9:23 AM
Chartist and others,
I’m not going to defend the SP or Saskatchewan talk radio, but in addition to the obvious cheer leading I think it may also the case that the number of sales isn’t that important a stat on its own.
Decreasing sales numbers would usually indicate that inventory (the number of unsold homes) is going to rise and, all things being equal, prices will drop. But right now the drop in sales is accompanied- more or less- by a drop in listings, so inventories are not yet getting out of control.
As I’ve said before I think that inventories are likely to rise and that prices are likely to fall in the short term, but maybe one reason that the media hasn’t been shouting about the decrease in sales is that it’s not significant news YET. If inventory starts to climb, it starts to take longer to sell a home, or prices start to drop, there will be a clear effect on Saskatoon residents. But I’m not sure that without such changes the number of sales affects anybody but real estate salespeople (Sorry, Norm!).
August 5th, 2010 at 7:05 PM
Chartist,
Goodness, it has been a long time. Thanks for stopping by. Nice to see you again.
August 7th, 2010 at 10:41 AM
I just realized that my unit sales graph had an error on it. July of 2009 was showing 338 unit sales instead of 438. I’ve made the correction and re-posted the graphics.
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