RBC had Saskatoon as nearing a buyers’ market (graph in RBC link in RBC story) and that was before weeks of big increases in inventory and a May decrease in selling price.

Lol. No, I haven’t missed a week yet and I promise to deliver both bad and good. Weekly stats are guaranteed to be delivered by Sunday, at the latest. This weekend, I have a family room that’s ripped to pieces and it’s making everyone around here anxious. The baseboards are caulked and the patching is all done so I’ll get at those weekly numbers before I start painting.

What is the statistics for last week. Is it so bad that you are not disclosing it?

I’ll give you a hundred bucks. Will you take a cheque? Unless your going “away” to the pen for a few years, in that case I’ll give you 3 cartons of Export A and a toothbrush you can sharpen into a nice shiv.

Drop in higher end new houses pricing, drops skinny house price since not garage/basically seprt townhouse

Drop in annoying skinny houses and smaller new houses

drops poorly constructed and poorly wired Jastek townhouses and drops older 1910′s to 1970′s houses

Drop in newish/junky townhouses drops older townhouses

Drop in older town houses and old houses drops excess condo conversions, because they are old anyway

I think the availability of cheaper options in better categories will have a trickle down effect, due to the increase in supply of new stuff, and massive increase in supply of conversions. Location and lot size does matter, but really, 5 maybe 10 blocks to University of Saskatchewan is great/easy walk.

Beyond that, 11 blocks better than 21, but both long walk, probably drive if cold/wet and have parking…

and a brand new, albeit stupid no garage skinny house, in Stonebridge for a big discount, will put down ward pressure on prices of town houses and condos that aren’t really “walking distance” on a daily basis, ie 30 minutes done on nice day with time to spare. Not a real walk commute if you can drive from Stone bridge in 20 minutes.

sorry I missed that. That just confirms my theory with all new houses( except the skinny ones) 450k and up, they will have trouble unloading them. Less demand and way more supply coming onto the market in this range. They will HAVE to lower their price or do something to stand out. I don’t know, maybe a new car, we saw this in Edmonton last year.

Something I found out about Calgary and Edmonton that will be coming here, if it has not already. The speculators who got into the game too late have two, some even more mortgages. When they couldn’t get rid of the spec house, they also listed their own residence, cause they have been bled to the bone. I imagine the wife is happy with them now!

I did outline that just a bit above in this thread.

Area 1: 93 @500k+ 10 (new <1 yr); 46 (1-10 yrs); 27 (10-20 yrs); 16 (20 yrs+)

Area 2: 98 @500k+ 11 (new <1 yr); 47 (1-10 yrs); 28 (10-20 yrs); 18 (20 yrs+)

Prices can really depend on the demand and availability within a specific location. Remember the three “L”s when buying or building a home: location, location location…

Take these examples of $500k+ listings: Briarwood (45), Willowgrove (15), Stonebridge (11). By comparison, in an older areas such as the University (10) or Arbor Creek/Erindale (15), there are substantially less listings with respect to the total number of homes in those areas. I think if you’re looking for a good buy on a larger home, I think Briarwood is a great place to start (I haven’t been through there lately but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a lot of houses for sale with adjacent/opposite “for sale” signs).

I have been following Stonebridge the last couple of months and I know the skinny houses were bought for 275k last year and now are listed for 375k. The bigger homes were bought last year for 375k and people are listing for over 500k. Last month I believe I counted 60 listings there and there was 3 sales the whole month. This is just Stonebridge, what about Willowgrove, Hampton Village or Briarwood?

It seems most of the new construction are big homes, probably at least 50% are mini mansions (dream homes), when only about 5% of the buyers can afford these homes. I would hate to be a speculator trying to unload one of these properties in the next year.

These homes are way overvalued and like I have mentioned before, they are far from being finished. People don’t have the money to purchase these homes, then finish the basement,driveway,yard and then furnish the home. For a 500k home, you are probably spending another 50k to finish it.

I think next year, there will be a glut of condos and higher end homes

If Norm had a percentage of what price range is selling, we could have a better idea. But I see less demand for new homes and way more supply coming the market.

It’s nice to hear that the smell of toast isn’t just my imagination!

Like I said, schadenfreude.

Oilsands quest inc is the calgary based exploration outfit developing Saskatchewans first global-scale oilsand discovery. Its Amex is BQI just go to yahoo finance and type bqi in.

http://www.canada.com/saskatoonstarphoenix/news/story.html?id=3486bb1d-05e8-4779-b0e4-142691a8f068

Obviously it’s subject to how the government chooses to interpret and implement these suggestions, but there were some fairly substantial recommendations which included: reducing low and middle-income taxes, reductions in the education portion of property taxes, removing PST from building materials in affordable housing and indexing shelter allowances to the cost-of-living.

This is, in fact, already happening in Calgary, where we’re seeing saturation in condos and houses in the lower price points (probably in the range of 5-12%). This has not necessarily extended to all segments of the market, though.

In the not too distant future I see a glut of condominium conversions and similar construction coming on the market in Saskatoon which could have the short-term effect of pushing prices in the $200k-$300k range down, which could ultimately benefit first-time home buyers (and to a certain degree, tenants, as some will undoubtably return to the rental market). I can envision this extending until early Summer 2009 (perhaps April?) at which point cost-of-living increases and continued surges in oil prices may come into play.

Curious to know if there are any publicly listed companies with Bakken involvement?

Where is your social conscience?

Funny, I meet all kinds of people on this blog who like to hold others to these high idealistic standards. In the real world, I have yet to meet a seller who wouldn’t like a little more, or a buyer who wouldn’t like to pay a little less. Most of them are really fine people too.

I have no problem believing that the lower price ranges are as vulnerable to a correction as any other. Entry level buyers have been affected most by the large increases and affordability is definitely a factor. As I, and others have suggested, the market will be in a tough spot if average Joe can’t afford to enter.

When it comes to looking at increases though, I don’t think that we can say, “this range increased more than that range.” If averages are weak, how does one track a value range? I know of no better way than to look at a very specific type of property to see how its value has changed. The comparison I used shows the change in a very basic, entry level bungalow compared to a more upper end home.

I think people also tend to lose track of how things have changed. For instance, Lakewood town houses have gone from an average of $108 per square foot to $223 per square foot during the same time periods outlined above. It has been a long, long time since they were $95,000. This represents an increase of 107%, and is an example of the “don’t move at the same time” that I was talking about above. It’s just one example of how certain segments do get out of whack, but I think eventually, some balance comes back. These very units did experience a bit of a correction through the summer and fall last year as their prices go ahead of the market. Inventory built up, prices became more stable, and then they were off to the races again in the new year. When the prices on these units gets too high, people start to look elsewhere and end up buying something like this.

http://www.mls.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=6971618

The biggest story this year and next will be the Bakken formation. It is as big as the North Sea or the Alaskan North Slope and as big as the Brazilian oil finds a mile under the sea floor. This is big! I realize it is closer to Regina but the royalties the government collects will benefit the entire province.

No one on this board has convinced me to sell my Saskatoon rental property. I’m going to keep collecting my (good) rent and I’m buying oil stocks that are investing in the Bakken formation.

what makes all of the people in the market from saskatoon greedy?It would be pretty dumb to sell your house for less that you could get for it.And lets not forget anyone selling in this market is probably buying too.If you are going to call anyone greedy it should be the builders.

Also, just to clarify, I believe what Norm had indicated was that all the “professional” speculators have long since left, but that isn’t to say there still aren’t a lot of amateurs and developers still in the game…

The 92%-98% difference for houses could be accurate if we’re talking averages (I had used 50%-75% on the low-end of my estimate). I think you’d find that if you looked at very specific price ranges the averages may not hold.

What I was more alluding to is the astronomical increases for apartment conversions and condominiums. One good example is the 3-story ‘townhouse’ style single units adjacent to Briarwood that were originally selling for $95k in early/mid-2006 and which I’ve heard have gone for as much as $280k this year).

old, funny how run down some look, and cars

all over the streets, with more condos to come.

Not sure why city can’t mandate at least 2 parking

stalls for all new 3 bedroom condos. Solo

garages are dumb on everything but a solo/bachelor/one bedroom apartment.