Saskatoon real estate market stabilizing in 2008: SRAR
This media release was just received from the Saskatoon Region Association of Realtors regarding real estate activity for Saskatoon through December 2008.
The Saskatoon real estate market is stabilizing. Markets are cyclical and Saskatoon’s market is in a low of the cycle providing opportunity for buyers. Many home buyers that were previously out priced in the market are now able to purchase a home. Now is an excellent time to buy or invest, as the market will rebound again.
Year-end sales figures have softened when measured against 2007 sales figures but are slightly stronger than 2005 and 2006. Saskatoon REALTORS® sold 162 residential units in the month of December, down 22% from December 2007 when 209 units were sold. In December 2005, 152 units sold and in December 2006, 157 units sold. Year to date 3522 homes have sold, down 21% from 2007 when 4,443 homes sold. In 2005, a total of 3,246 homes were sold, and in 2006 3,430 homes sold.
REALTORS® sold $43,158,000 of in city residential real estate in the month of December, down 19% from December 2007 when $53,479,000 was sold. Year to date figures saw more than a billion dollars of real estate exchange hands. In 2008 there was $1,013,551,000 of residential real estate sold down 2% from 2007 when $1,033,723,000 was sold.
The December and year to date average selling price remained stable. The average selling price in December was $266,411.00 up 4% from December 2007 when the average was $255,885.00. Year to date the average selling price was $287,777.00. The average selling price indicates sustained demand for mid to upper price range homes. Home sale prices have softened from the high experienced in May and June of this year when the average selling price exceeded $300,000.00.
Listing inventory remains high with buyers having 1127 homes to select from at the end of December, up 226% from December 2007 when 346 homes were available for purchase. There were 8,135 homes listed for sale in 2008, up 40% from year-end figures in 2007 when 5,823 homes were placed on the market.
Saskatoon will not be exempt from the global economic slow down but is well positioned to weather the storm. The city job market remains steady. The provincial government’s support for infrastructure development will also assist in stimulating our local economy. This and other stimuli will likely contribute to Saskatoon and the province being less affected by the global slow down than other provinces. This positioning will assist in a quicker economic recovery when the global situation improves.
Stay tuned for our “Closer look” at the Saskatoon real estate statistics for December, which will provide a detailed breakdown of single-family homes sales, condominium sales and prices for each major real estate area. That report will follow before the end of the week.
I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions. All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.
Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate
60 comments so far. We'd love to hear your thoughts.
April 22nd, 2009 at 12:10 PM
They say:
“Many home buyers that were previously out priced in the market are now able to purchase a home.”
Then they say:
“The December and year to date average selling price remained stable. The average selling price in December was $266,411.00 up 4% from December 2007 when the average was $255,885.00. Year to date the average selling price was $287,777.00″
Granted, that’s down from the peak; but still pretty pricey, no?
April 22nd, 2009 at 12:10 PM
Sorry for the back-to-back posts… but I find this interesting:
“The December and year to date average selling price remained stable. The average selling price in December was $266,411.00 up 4% from December 2007 when the average was $255,885.00.”
and
“Listing inventory remains high with buyers having 1127 homes to select from at the end of December, up 226% from December 2007 when 346 homes were available for purchase.”
So, inventory is up 226% since Dec. 07; and prices are up 4% over the same period. Some low.
captcha = “rear autonomy” LOL!
April 22nd, 2009 at 12:10 PM
Isn’t it great how people attempt to nonchalantly reclassify what constitutes affordable housing? So long as you imply something completely ridiculous, you can continue to act on that unverified position.
Affordable:
$100,000 720sqft homes.
-or-
Entry level skilled jobs that pay $35,000 to $45,000 a year.
Get real people.
I love that captcha!
April 22nd, 2009 at 12:11 PM
guy_in_regina,
I suspect he is intending to talk about the current average price compared to the peak price. By the way, “the year-to-date average” is pretty much irrelevant, at least in this context.
Happy new year guy!
April 22nd, 2009 at 12:11 PM
“Markets are cyclical and Saskatoon’s market is in a low of the cycle providing opportunity for buyers.”
Man, whoever wrote this really should’ve saved this little gem for when it was remotely believably close to “the low of the cycle”. They’re using up all their A-list material way too early.
“Now is an excellent time to buy or invest, as the market will rebound again.”
Well, it *may* a great time to buy a house, as long as you don’t need to sell the one you’re living in first.
April 22nd, 2009 at 12:12 PM
|The Saskatoon real estate market is stabilizing. Markets are cyclical and Saskatoon’s market is in a
low of the cycle providing opportunity for buyers. ”
maybe lower than previous but no one thinks the market has bottomed out yet especially with condos with lots of places for sale more town houses for sale every time i come back and more apartment style under construction
why would they do this if they were losing money?
they wouldn’t, thing is they made money with $$ 100,000 condos a few years ago, even if condos fall to $$ 150,000s they’d be making money, and still at $$ 200,000s for most acceptable, 150 is still a long way down, but construction companies will keep making while there’s money to be had, here’s calling for a lot bigger fall in
in case any one missed my farewell earlier, i moved to alberta a few months ago, would think about moving back, but either saskatoon wages have to go up 10% to meet mine or prices have to go down at least 20%, otherwise alberta is just too attractive, might move within province though
April 22nd, 2009 at 1:10 PM
Crikey,
So, you’re not buying it then?
Dan,
Glad to hear that things are going well for you in Alberta.
April 22nd, 2009 at 1:10 PM
Norm,
“So, you’re not buying it then?”
Um… no.
I just have to delve into this report a little further… please humor me… LOL…
SRAR’s assertion that: “The Saskatoon real estate market is stabilizing”.
Let’s look at the following bits of data from SRAR’s report:
-There were 1127 homes for sale at the end of December in Saskatoon, which was up 226% YOY.
-The number of sales for the month of December was down 22% YOY.
-YOY prices for December are still up (by 4%), but I’d bet dollars to doughnut YOY prices will be down mighty soon. Like this month.
Slowing sales, overbuilding and rampant “boom” speculation are the main reasons for the inventory buildup; Economics 101 tells us that vastly increased supply (226%) and slower sales (-22%) means decreased prices.
-As unit sales continue to slump, the average Saskatoon residential price for the month of December ($266,411) has declined from the June peak of $310,386- about a 15% decline.
I was imagining that some proportion of this was seasonal, but surprisingly the last four years running, December averages have been up from the previous June:
December 2007 (255,885) up from June 2007 (252,703)
December 2006 (175,849) up from June 2006 (160,547),
December 2005 ($152,442) up from June 2005 ($139,728)
December 2004 ($144,911) up from June 2004 ($136,501)
I can’t get the data for any earlier than that.
Where is the basis for assuming any price stabilization has occurred, praytell? Anyone?
BTW, when do we get to post our 2009 prognostications?
April 22nd, 2009 at 1:48 PM
Crikey,
“Man, whoever wrote this really should’ve saved this little gem for when it was remotely believably close to “the low of the cycle”. They’re using up all their A-list material way too early.”
Totally agree. It won’t be easy writing these reports for as long as this downturn in RE is. All in the RE industry will hope for a short softening, but the bottom will be when prices are affordable and we are back to a sellers and a buyers market (pre 06)
Looking at the states, some are calling a bottom in the third Q 09 with average prices at about 160k. I think it is very optimistic, but if true, it would mean a slide of 3 years for RE there. If anybody saw the 60 min video, the bottom probably won’t be until 2012. That would be a 6 year slide. I think we could see at least a 2 year slide here, possibly more. Growth would be slow after that, unless inflation gets outta control.
April 22nd, 2009 at 1:48 PM
Canadian homebuilders deny market headed for meltdown
http://www.financialpost.com/news/story.html?id=1144390
“For those who have owned a home for some period, their equity will be substantial, given the rising prices of the past few years,” it said. “For those who purchased their home recently, there should be few worries about a modest temporary reduction in value.”
“Michael Gregory, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets, said recently that “we won’t even come close” to what is happening in the U.S. thanks to stronger employment and income growth here as well as banking system that “continues to make mortgages” available to Canadian consumers.”
No mention of the credit bubble that led to the high prices and now the contraction of credit, or that inventory is high all across the country and will be even higher come spring time. No mention that most major markets are at about a 45% drop yoy in sales, even though places like Calgary have been in a slowdown period for 18 months.
April 22nd, 2009 at 1:48 PM
I believe Dan pointed out an important point, even if prices fall significantly from present, or from last year/year over year, they are still way up, often still nearly double, what they were a few years ago.
This, to me, suggests that over building, especially condo wise, will continue until prices are far below present, as while builders are currently making a killing at current prices, they will still be profitable at 10 or 20% lower.
At some point, the over building of condos for short-term gain will finally result in some sort of substantial long term price decrease.
A weakening housing market, weakening economy and falling (crashing?) commodity prices all should slide our house prices down. A huge over supply of houses and a massive condo inventory with more on the way may end up being a bigger factors, as all the local “investors” out there already own an investment condo or two and the market doesn’t support hundreds of vacant condos as justifying still elevated house prices.
And Regina, with far cheaper housing, higher paying jobs and similar atmosphere does offer cheaper competition for new grads, with fundamentals that are stronger in general, including smaller inventory
April 22nd, 2009 at 1:49 PM
My predictions were pretty spot on. $287k avg price (I predicted $280k year-end). Fewer sales on the same dollar volume was my other prediction (oh well I was off a little – 2% drop in overall $). This predicting stuff is easy! All in all a good year for Saskatoon real estate owners.
April 22nd, 2009 at 1:49 PM
Crikey,
Not to mention the fact that the average fell 12K from November to December. Stable probably isn’t the word I’d use.
I have to say though that December stood in stark contrast to most recent months in terms of unit sales. Yes, 20% off from last December but after 2007 there isn’t a December that hit bigger numbers.
In the past 60 days, I’ve had 7 condo listings which have sold, 6 within spitting distance of $200,000. 5 of the six purchased by single people whom I think are on the younger side and one to a couple from Calgary. The four most recent listings averaged 9 days on the market. I would like to find four more of them.
Nick,
I agree with the point about where prices are at compared to a couple of years ago. Just because there’s only a small gain in ’08 doesn’t make prices reasonable. However, the hope that they’ll return to historical lows might be a bit of a stretch, then again, it might not. I’m glad I don’t have to figure it out. I’m going through that with the stock market right now. As it moves towards 10,000 I’m wondering of my 80% cash position was a wise move.
There is still a lot of condo inventory and some of it will never sell at current prices. There is definitely a sweet spot where they’ll turn quite quickly to a willing buyer. Agents need to do everyone a favour and resist a listing at 249,900 when recent sales indicate 210-220. It’s absolutely pointless.
Callum,
“My predictions were pretty spot on. $287k avg price (I predicted $280k year-end).”
Lol. You actually meant the average for the entire year when you threw that number out? I thought we were talking about what you could actually buy a place for by the end of the year. Nice to see you again.
April 22nd, 2009 at 1:49 PM
For those of you who don’t actually see a copy of the paper. In today’s Star Phoenix, the front page headline reads:
House prices tumble
Dec average price down $44,000 from June high
April 22nd, 2009 at 1:50 PM
Norm,
Economic crisis to get worse
http://www.thestarphoenix.com/Business/Economic+crisis+worse+economists/1146068/story.html
Until inflation takes hold in a few years, being in cash is a good move right now. I think there are a few better buys
The smart guys in the room are the ones who saw the housing and credit bubble a few years back. And none of them are forecasting a turnaround anytime soon. Best case is that we see some growth in the world economy a couple years down the road. Before I am jumping back into the market, I want to know that these bailouts are gonna work. If they don’t or are half assed, I have read Dow at 4,000, TSX at 3,000.
April 22nd, 2009 at 1:50 PM
I agree with you, George. I expect the “sucker’s rally/Obama bounce” to continue until the US inauguration, or shortly after Obama signs his massive stimulus bill.
Norm,
Can you tell us what the total listings for 2008 was? I can’t seem to find it on the SRAR report.
April 22nd, 2009 at 1:50 PM
No doubts, but I’m counting on a few more “sucker’s rallies” before things get better. I’ve gained back over half of my 2008 losses since October 15, but I’ve been pretty careful at not being deeply invested when the market gets back towards 9,000. I’m a little bit fearful that at some point I’ll miss the eventual recovery.
Crikey,
Total residential listings were 8,135. Keep in mind though that there were also 1,955 cancellations through the course of the year. Most of those were actually second and third listings on the same property. That compares to 5,823 in 2007. Hmmm, MLS says 0 cancellations for 2007. I would have been surprised if there was 10% of what we had in ’08 but 0 seems unlikely.
April 22nd, 2009 at 1:51 PM
Think some one could provide a link to the Star Phoenix Story?
I don’t see it on line, maybe takes a while for non-subscribers to have access. I going to stick on my website.
Wonder what the impact of a front page story about $44,000 drop in house prices from peak will have? Might do a good job of speeding up our prolonged acceptance/recovery process. In contrast, CTV’s year end story pointed out prices were still “up” from last year, but failed to mention why up a few thousand is really on the way down.
April 22nd, 2009 at 1:52 PM
“while home sales are down 22%, house prices are up slightly” CTV
April 22nd, 2009 at 1:54 PM
Someone left a copy of the SP in the lunchroom, so I looked up that story. I laughed out loud at the juxtaposition of ridiculous ideas on the same page.
Story 3: “Canadian housing situation ‘totally different’ than in U.S.”
“We did not experience the same housing boom conditions that occurred in the U.S. and there is no reason to expect that we are in for the serious pain that they are currently suffering.”
Story 1: “Average House Price Falls”
Inset graphic: Average Saskatoon House Prices
2008: $287,777
2007: $232,754
2006: $160,586
2005: $144,786
2004: $132,548
2003: $125,201
My comment: How can they possibly print these two things on the same page, and then expect anyone to take *anything* they say seriously? Do they seriously expect people not to notice the huge disconnect between the first three increased on that list (+7k, +12k, +16k) and the last two (+72k, +55k)? How can anyone possibly look at a chart that shows a single-year increase of DOUBLE THAT OF THE PREVIOUS THREE YEARS COMBINED and say that there were no housing boom conditions?
Oh, wait, my bad. They didn’t say it wasn’t boom conditions; they said it wasn’t the SAME boom conditions. Well, that makes it all better then, dunnit? Nothing to see here, folks. Move along, now…
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:05 PM
Bookrat,
Causes of the United States housing bubble
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_United_States_housing_bubble
Mania for home ownership
Belief that housing is a good investment
Promotion in the media
Speculative fever
Buying and selling above normal multiples
Crash of the dot-com bubble
Historically low interest rates
Risky mortgage products and lax lending standards
If you include 0 down, 40 year, interest only mortgages and no more 25% down ( just more than 0 down) for 2nd property mortgages from 06-08 as risky mortgage products and lax lending standards, then we pretty much have all the bases covered. I have to say that subprime and those funky mortgages they have are gonna hit them even harder. They are only in the third inning right now.
Just because we did not have the same subprime they had, does not mean we did not have access to different vehicles to get our bubble( easy cheap credit, bidding wars, its different here, etc.)
At the end of the day, it comes down to affordability, and it seems every place has or has had unaffordable homes, we are no different.
“Home prices, as a multiple of annual rent, have been 15 since World War II. In the bubble, prices reached 26 in the States.” I wonder what the P/E is here.
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:06 PM
Bookrat,
One is a local story, the other a national story. The person who wrote “Canadian housing situation ‘totally different’ than in U.S.” has already forgotten that Saskatoon exists. Unlike Toronto, the world doesn’t revolve around Saskatoon.
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:07 PM
Hey Norm,
Saw this article in the StarPhoenix… I don’t think it’s been posted on here yet:
http://www.thestarphoenix.com/Homes/Average+house+price+falls/1146060/story.html
It features a statement from you. I noticed that you think buyer interest will increase in 2009, but NOWHERE do you imply prices will. Smart. Janzen is the one indicating a turn around in value – of course with absolutely no hint as to when. (someday, somehow the market WILL recover! LoL)
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:08 PM
Heather D,
“I noticed that you think buyer interest will increase in 2009, but NOWHERE do you imply prices will.”
To be clear, when I said I thought demand would increase I meant from the current lows of recent months. My suggestion was that buyer interest should increase as conditions improve (lower prices). I do believe that prices are currently at their high point for 2008. My experience over November and December is clearly indicating that there is no real shortage of buyers out there. If you find the sweet spot, any house will sell right now. If you insist on pricing with 2008′s vanished gains in your price you’re going to be sitting a long, long time.
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:08 PM
‘I have read Dow at 4,000, TSX at 3,000′
I have also read that the Saskatoon real estate market is stabilizing:) They hype is as bad on the way down as the way up. By the time it’s mostly good news, it will probably be time to think about selling.
Speaking of stuff we have read, I have also read that credit conditions are improving, risk appetite is rising, Ted spread etc, has narrowed, mortgage rates are heading lower, and perhaps the turnaround will be sooner then we think. Also, the price of a house at 160 K in the states is misleading. Distressed sales are skewing averages. We won’t see anywhere near the same percentage of distressed sales here. Not even close. Also, historical norms mean nothing if your economy or city is changing. Ghost towns have historical norms that are steady for a while, then decline to absolutely nothing. Other cities that grow and do well have historical norms that also change. And change things do. Historical norms are sometimes just that: history. Maybe most on here like to think that Potash Corps plan to bring a few thousand high paying jobs to your city in the next few years isn’t going to happen, despite their billions of dollars, but let’s say it’s 50/ 50 – what do you think that will do to your market?
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:09 PM
As a first time landlord that is conveniently sitting on an empty property for this month thanks to a surprise mess from my previous tenants, I’ve been really doing some serious thinking about dropping my investment property for cash and seeing where the market heads in the next 6 months to a year, I’m thinking this may allow me to hold onto my 2006-2008 gains. On the other hand, my interest payment compared to principal payment is so low right now that my cash flow is very positive, but again who knows what the opportunity cost of holding the property going into a possible deep recession may be. Thoughts?
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:09 PM
Jason S.
Tough call. Maybe depends if you can still get all of your 2008 gains out of it. Which you probably can’t now. If it’s cash flowing well, and you can find tenants easily enough, no worries. Rent it for another year or two, the market will find it’s footing again, you’ll be back where you are now, but with that much more equity in it. Those equity portions keep rising and rising. It is a difficult choice, but you’ve got something good in hand, and you may not be able to time it getting back in. Also consider if a slight correction in rents will keep you cash flow positive. If so, you’ve god a golden investment.
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:09 PM
Norm I agree with your comment about there being buyer’s out their. I just bought a house last weekend and another one I was interested in sold the day before as well as one that my realtor had listed. A friend of mine who is selling his house (that has been on the market for about 4 months now) said that his house was shown 5 times between new years and the 5th. This was substantially higher than the previous 3 or 4 weeks despite the less than pleasant weather.
However I did notice that there are also a lot of extremely motivated sellers! Half the houses I looked at were vacant while the other half had already bought a new property that was being built. Most of the comments from the sellers were “don’t be afraid to write ANY offer”.
Anyway, you hit it bang on with the pricing. It seems a little ridiculous the games that buyers and sellers are playing right now. I wish that buyers would list the property for what they would take, or something reasonable thereabouts and be more firm on their price. There were a bunch of properties that we immediately ruled out because they were simply priced too high, not actually knowing where they would end up selling.
I really wasn’t planning on putting in an offer, I was going to wait and see what was going to happen to the market in the next 3-9 months and hopefully find some bargains in the fall. But then we found a house that we loved but was a little out of our range/budget, so we decided to put in an offer. We put in an offer that was $43,000 below list and it was accepted!! I may have left a few bucks on the table by not waiting, but we got the house we wanted for a price that we could afford.
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:10 PM
Neal B,
Nice work. I think for people who actually want to buy a house long term, and can find one they really like, now, or the next few months, is a pretty good time to buy. With this high inventory, and a strong offer, it’s probably possible to get some nice houses 20 percent or more off their peak.
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:10 PM
Mark,
what I was implying was IF the bailouts do not work, then we could see the Dow at 4,000. If the automakers and banks fail, our economy would be like a row of dominos. Will the bailouts work? They better, cause we are knee deep in the stuff right now.
But you are right, the yield for 3 month treasuries has increased to 0.08%, The three month LIBOR has decreased to 1.42%. TED spread is at 1.34. Peak was over 4. The FED is getting some rates down, but even they fear a long recession. But is this just temporary? who knows.
As for Potash Corp, even though they have tonnes of cash reserves, if the credit markets do not come back to 2008 levels, there will be no expansion for some time. Worldwide demand for basically everything in 2002-2008 was fueled by credit and not by the worlds ability to actually pay for it. It has been a false economy for the last few years.
I think the expansions were based on 2012 worldwide demand of potash taking into account an increase of demand every year. Anybody remember India and China demand?
But with the credit crunch 2009 will be less than 2008 and 2010 will be even worse for potash demand. They may still do the expansion but it will not be the rush it was before.
The Governments have made it clear the only way out of this mess is printing money like crazy and getting more credit flowing. A recipe for high inflation down the road in a few years.
If anybody is looking for the bubble in the markets. The US dollar.
US debt
http://www.iousathemovie.com/
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:10 PM
Neal,
“but we got the house we wanted for a price that we could afford.”
Now if everybody in the whole world had bought what they could afford, there would be no economic crisis.
Good for you, enjoy your home.
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:11 PM
’2010 will be even worse for potash demand.’
according to who? food is pretty recession proof. it seems most predictions i’ve read have potash demand rebounding in six months.
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:11 PM
Mark, you’re right, it is actually a pretty good time to be a buyer. We bought our last house in Edmonton Feb. 2006 when there was only a couple hundred houses on the market. That was a little frantic. Even though we got a house that appreciated in value quite rapidly, we got a home that we never truly enjoyed. It was more like the house that was okay rather than the house that we loved. I am much happier with my purchase this time than last.
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:11 PM
’2010 will be even worse for potash demand.
according to who? food is pretty recession proof. it seems most predictions i’ve read have potash demand rebounding in six months.’
farmers dont fertilize if they cant afford to…..
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:12 PM
’2010 will be even worse for potash demand.’
Do you think the Chinese and Indian populations will eat less?
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:12 PM
Good for you Neal. Enjoy. We have sold 3 houses in three weeks. Our showings and sales calls are up this week as well. Should be an interesting month. I think it will be a positive month.
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:12 PM
Mark,
many analysts expect this last quarter of 08 and the first quarter of 09 to be shitty for all markets and then a return to normal growth after that, potash included.
But these analysts expect the governments will fix the financial crisis sometime next year; funny,( not ha ha) because it is the same people who got us into this mess in the first place and they are going to fix it?
I read this, so I know what you are talking about demand bouncing back
Potash Corp to chop 2009 output by 2 mln tonnes
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsnews/idCAN0928223720081209?rpc=33
We have not seen the bottom of the economic crisis. There are too many industries and marketplaces that are teetering on the edge. There will be more job losses and fallout heading into 09. It will get worse before it gets better.
Worldwide demand for most items will drop for the next couple of years and potash is in this bunch.
One thing I don’t understand is that there was a 4.5 month strike and then they work a couple of months and then they are laid off because of slowing demand?
That would be one heck of a layoff if not for the strike. I must be missing something here.
But with all that doom and gloom, I have said and will continue to say, this is the place to be and as long as most people can keep their jobs here, we will do fine.
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:13 PM
Im not saying people will eat less.
Im saying farmers can grow crops without potash, and they will if times are tough. they just dont get as much yield in return.
potash is a luxury not a necesity
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:13 PM
Interesting article on the bench site, about how the world population went up 4 times over the last half century and potash prices fell, or heck, food prices themselves, with grain prices no where near where they were a few decades ago when the global population was lower. You could also say more people should drive more cars – not working so well for GM.
Increasing population alone is not enough for potash prices to stay high. Improved techniques, crop varieties and efficiencies are as important, if not more, than potash.
http://www.thebench.ca/?p=210
check the links in the post, some good points
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:14 PM
“Speculators who purchased homes in the residential buying frenzy of 2007 put the houses back on the market in 2008, especially in the second half of the year, Janzen said. Renovated houses and completed condo developments pushed the year-to-date number of homes listed for sale to 8,135 last year from 5,823 in 2007.” from the Star Phoenix article, pretty much the theme from my posts. Speculators selling empty houses, ie no shortage of supply, just artificially waiting as investment.
Obviously SRAR has to spin positive, I think that while Norm points out buyers are waiting out there, I think a lot of potential sellers are sitting on their specu condos and townhouses just waiting for prices to improve so they can sell. Maybe the two equal out?
I think with the number of people I personally know who own a speculation condo, some smart enough to buy pre-boom, vacant places awaiting sale may out number buyers waiting for reasonable prices.
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:14 PM
Mark said “Nice work. I think for people who actually want to buy a house long term, and can find one they really like, now, or the next few months, is a pretty good time to buy”
vs. in half a year, when prices are even lower?
I’d say the next few months aren’t a good time to buy, since average prices will be lower by all predictions, except those of property owners and some (remax) realtors.
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:15 PM
you know the housing market is bust in saskatoon when the star phoenix admits to it
separate post worthy?
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:15 PM
Nick, I agree with your comment that in 6 months prices will probably be lower, but for a long term primary residence, the conditions are pretty good now because there is so much inventory that buyers can get the right house rather than take what is available.
In my case I have a wife a two small children that I’m moving to Saskatoon, and the idea of finding a place to rent and having to move again in 6-12 months didn’t go over very well.
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:15 PM
Housing market braces for correction, not crash
http://business.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090106.wrealestate0106/BNStory/Business/home
“lenders issued an estimated $56-billion in 40-year mortgages with minimal down payments – seen by critics as being as risky as subprime loans – in the first six months of 2008.”
Most markets have declined since June, so it is very possible that many of these people who bought at the peak with little down are already underwater. Predictions of price declines range from 3% to 15% for 2009. This would just add more underwater mortgages.
One, I feel sorry for these people and two, I am pissed at governments, banks and the RE industry causing this mess and manipulation. Not mad at you, Norm.
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:17 PM
Thanks George,
I’m not mad at you either.
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:17 PM
aren’t prices already down 15%?
sucks to be the poor shmuck who got relocated here in June and bought a $300,000 condo with little down and now the neighbours are all on sale for $250,000
this is actually the case with a guy I know
his mortgage is only 25 years, but he still owes substantially more than his place is worth
sucks he met me after he moved here
kind of my replacement
at least he has a good job
as he bought into the idea he had to buy in the spring or forever be priced out and i think his realtor told him it was a good idea to buy
haven’t kept in touch with him too much since i moved
another 15% would really suck
feel bad for him but is his punishment not for googling saskatoon real estate which would turn up this sight and give him some unbiased advise
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:18 PM
Nick,
I too suspect that the number of vacant/spec homes out number potential buyers. It’s also gotten harder in the past few months to get a mortgage. By April I expect we’ll see a boatload of new listings and underbids to continue. IMO I wouldn’t feel comfortable buying a property right now unless I could take 10% off the asking price, minimum.
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:18 PM
Anybody get their GST check? The new tax credit gave me 4 times the amount I usually get =o) I wonder what my tax refund is gonna be like since I wanted to invest the whole thing into the stock market. Other than that I find it ironic some people post on here how pissed they are when a homeowner keeps telling them how much their equity has increased in their home but when home prices come down you see the renter/nonowner post their loss of equity…..ironic =o)
Norm,
Ya im liking the bounce ive been having from Old Lady Market I hope for the baby boomers it does recover fast so their retirement is not compromised.
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:20 PM
Norm, I’ll add my congrats for a great web site to this thread.
Could you ask all of your real estate friends to use the Point2 site? Browsing MLS is so incredibly painful and the local Point2 site is so well done, plus you help to support local high-tech jobs.
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:21 PM
I still find it perplexing how those, especially with children, cannot see the greater value in having affordability for EVERYONE versus how much “equity” their property has gained.
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:39 PM
Armoth wrote:
“Ya im liking the bounce ive been having from Old Lady Market I hope for the baby boomers it does recover fast so their retirement is not compromised.”
How’s that leveraged BQI and XIU investments working out? I do see that BQI is up today – now I’m only down about 65%.
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:40 PM
Article on Garth Turner’s Blog:
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/01/06/the-gospel-of-phil/
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:40 PM
“How’s that leveraged BQI and XIU investments working out? I do see that BQI is up today – now I’m only down about 65%.”
Now, if those “investments” are leveraged, you’re losing way more than that. You’re paying interest to lose money. And if the asset that you leveraged it against is also depreciating… yowza.
Good luck widdat.
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:41 PM
Today front page paper – 89 Shore Gold lay offs, or so co-workers tell me
Not a huge amount, but significant # high paid jobs
More evidence Saskatoon is subject to the recession?
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:41 PM
Dr. Cornwallis,
The majority of the cash is in XIU and im down 31.73% to date which in hindsight for the worst crash since the great depression aint that bad at all =o) As for BQI I switched it out for CLL.TO because connacher has a steady production income and I like how their site is setup for “green” production with the water setup. My thoughts were for oil I should do either Suncor or Canadian oilsands trust because they are the big boys so I went with Suncor but only 65 shares at 24.03. The connacher I only put $250 in at around $1.20. But before I go any farther has anybody seen the commodity prices lately? I get a monthly feed from the internal Agrium site and it looks like almost every commodity is either above or double the previous years price, except for ammonia and urea for fertilizing them which is good for farmers =o)
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:41 PM
lbird,
Thank you. I am a fairly big booster for the Point2 product. I love it myself. Amazingly, most Saskatoon agents have a Point2 website. I’m afraid that some of them just don’t put much effort at all into internet marketing.
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:42 PM
What’s with all the stock talk? Isn’t this a real estate blog?
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:43 PM
SP – Shore Gold shares are traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol SGF. Like most mining companies, Shore’s shares have been under downward pressure for some time. Since hitting a 52-week high of $4.70 last January, the stock has traded as low as 20 cents. It closed Wednesday down 13 cents at 36 cents
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:50 PM
Renter,
Commodity prices do have an effect on real estate and if you read why they justfied the boom and the crash you would see it affects ur rent and ur home price as well. So if you would prefer not to read my post dont. I dont have magicial control over your eyes so you can look away if you want too =o)
April 22nd, 2009 at 2:50 PM
“Could you ask all of your real estate friends to use the Point2 site? Browsing MLS is so incredibly painful and the local Point2 site is so well done, plus you help to support local high-tech jobs.”
thanks lbird, good to hear you like it. It’s nice to see local interest in our product! I’ve been house hunting for a while now, and I tend to agree with your views on usability.