This may explain why Saskatchewan has held up fairly well. And the future looks good as well
Sask GDP by industry
http://www.enterprisesaskatchewan.ca/economicoverview

Canada GDP by industry
http://www.investorsfriend.com/Canadian%20GDP%20Canadian%20imports%20and%20exports.htm

Of course for interest rates we still have to see if the Canadian dollar strengthens more than expected and reduces inflation or if the global economy slows and weakens the Canadian recovery. Also, if oil goes much higher it may increase SK revenue but it also tends to slow the world economy.

Obviously, the increased interest rates are going to affect the housing market, but that is still only part of the equation. A big factor is going to be how the overall economy shapes up in Saskatchewan and if in-migration continues. If the mining sector shows recovery (specifically potash) and many of the new proposed mining projects break ground, then I don’t think we’ll see any significant decreases in price. But I’m just prognosticating here……

Let’s wait and see.

Seems to be some consensus that the market is going to weaken.

Cindy and Dana,

Prices would have to rise about as fast as they did in 2007 for these numbers to become the norm by 2011. I’m not big on predictions but I’m willing to bet money against that happening. In the same way that easy and cheap credit added fuel to the market, tougher and more expensive credit will have weaken it. Even CREA is calling for a softening of prices through 2010.

Listed at 94,900. Reported sold for $895,000. Serious typo, or the largest overbid in Saskatoon history?

I’m hoping that’s a typo,
1,040 sq ft?

Maybe $90,000 for 1990?

I still politely disagree. I’m no economist, but I think the BOC has many reasons to take the rate up slowly and surely. Raising the interest rate 50-75 bp would do crazy things to the CAD, which would further strain the manufacturing/export sectors. Fiscal policy/stimulus spending is also winding up soon, and I would think the BOC would want to determine the effects of this prior to doing anything drastic or “shocking”. Just my two cents.

Thanks for all the price history information for Saskatoon. Very interesting to see that the peak was in 2008 and then a bit of a fall-off in 2009. My bet, however, is that by 2011 we start seeing an increase in the number of homes in this price range and that will become the norm (pardon the pun!).

Rick,

I agree that if we see our mining and oil sectors stay in an extended period of decline selling those houses will be difficult at those prices. But with the announcement that the BoC is raising it’s rate and the general commentary we hear about a recovery starting, I find it hard to believe that we will see the housing crash that they saw in the US. Prices may decline or stay flat for a while, but declines of 30-50% I just don’t see it…..

As most were predicting, Saskatchewan was only affected in a minor way by the whole downturn. Can’t say the same for Calgary….

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Report+finds+plunging+office+rental+rates+Calgary/2603200/story.html?id=2603200

I know this is a little off topic, but it’s funny that many of the Sasktachewan nay-sayers from before the economic downturn have been pretty quiet on this blog….. the doom and gloom that many were predicting for Saskatchewan hasn’t materialized….. Could it be that we have some solid economic fundamentals in Saskatchewan…. or did we just get lucky? I believe the former as opposed to the latter…..

I do have them. Just not sure how they’re going to fit into the site. Is there something specific I can fetch for you?

Do you still have the great Canadian and American blogs that were on your old website ?

Jen, no worries; they all tend to blend together after a bit. I actually think the Bank of Canada may go as high as 75 basis points. There’s going to be a certain “shock factor” with any rate increase, and they may just want to get it over with and weigh what impact this has on the economy over a few months without having to change the rates.

2007 – 7
2008 – 15
2009 – 12
2010 – 3

Share of total condo sales 2007-2009 = 1.2% (37/3139)
Current share of condo inventory = 10%+ (44/425)

With condos there is probably more happening off of the books, both listings and sales. Hard to get a good handle on that.

Please excuse my block-headedness- I thought it was an article I’d read earlier in the day, but it obviously wasn’t. :0

Sorry!

“interest rates are almost certainly going up June 1 (and most likely 50 basis points).”

I’d agree with the first statement, but not necessarily with the latter. Why do you think that that?

Thanks in advance…

It’s also unofficially official: interest rates are almost certainly going up June 1 (and most likely 50 basis points).
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/economy/story.html?id=2930483

Interesting thoughts but I don’t have a big problem with any of these locations. Don’t people expect a few quirks downtown? I don’t know that it would matter where you put them, you’re going to have some challenges selling such a whack up condos priced above $500K. At the same time, I’ve always thought River Landing would sell because of the premium location so there’s no question that helps.

Dana,

You make some good points, for sure. The history of single-family homes sales above $700K looks like this.

2004 – 2
2005 – 1
2006 – 2
2007 – 18
2008 – 26
2009 – 21
2010 – 3

Total – 73

Upon closer inspection I see that a 1040′ Wildwood split was reports as having sold at $900,000 in 1990 so there’s actually a total of 73 sales.

Still, if you just look at the three year period where most of these sales were recorded, this range accounts for .75% of the total single-family homes market of 7,940 sales. Over 6% of our current inventory is priced in that range.

We can look for a lot more sales in this range in the future. That’s providing we don’t have a major U.S. style pull-back in pricing.

“There never really has been a strong market for these types of homes. The total history of MLS sales of single-family homes prices above $700,000 is just 74 units. When you get above $800,000 it amounts to only a few dozen homes. There are presently 28 homes for sale in that range.”

Historically speaking, when was the first MLS listing that was above $700,000? Were there any prior to 2005? You need to take that into account. I bet almost all of those 74 units were sold in the last 3 years (or at least the vast majority of them). While there hasn’t been many historically, we are going to start seeing a lot more sales in this range in the future.

I lived in Vancouver (west side) for 8 yrs (not that I’m comparing real estate in Saskatoon to real estate in Vancouver), but 7-8 years ago, a $1million home in Vancouver was still a REALLY nice place….. now, that $1million gets you not much more than a starter home (at least on the west side). It’s all relative…..

No, I don’t mean that at all. It’s quite possible that there have been other sales that did not go through MLS. I’m just saying I was surprised to find 10 active listing. I recall some time ago that there were only a couple and I believe someone told me that was all they had left.