Ever since the Fed announced it’s treasury buying program, rates have been creeping up. Bond moguls are saying “take my treasuries please Benny boy!”

A 6% 10 year yield could be around the corner at year end. That is going to be catastrophic. Not sure what it means for Canada though . . . this story is just unfolding . . .

Listing categories include active, conditional sale, sold, cancelled, withdrawn and expired so there’s a fair bit more going on outside of those two major categories.

1,470 actives + 20 new listings – 13 sales – 3 conditional sales – 2 cancelled – 2 expired = 1,470 active listings.

As you know, cancelled and expired listings are often re-listed. Some conditional sales become active again (occasionally sold listings do as well).

FYI, today we finished at 1,471 units. I can’t recall off hand if SRAR reports actives effective after midnight at the end of the month. If that’s the case, we may actually finish down from March when there were 1,435 listings.

Jesse,

There is some movement in rents. I know of a number of 2nd Avenue Lofts that fetched $1500. More recently they’ve been going at $1,250-1,300. Someone at Lakeshore Estates (Stillwater) told me they were getting $950 easily several months again. Rent is now at $900 but they’re offering rental incentives (reduced to $850). Some of these vacant conversions are now making their way back to the rental market and I’m sure that some investors are hurting for cash flow. It’s definitely happening.

L.oki,

353 residential units for April. Again, way off of 2007 and 2008 but pretty much in line with the five-year average.

Crikey,

Exactly what I’m concerned about. Seems to make some sense that we should just take our lumps now and get this behind us. I cringe at the stories from out east about multiple offers and over list bids. It would be very sad to see the progress that has been made evaporate just to have to start over.

Thank you.

I think I’ve learned first hand that a real estate blog doesn’t necessarily “need a positive spin” but a terribly negative spin certainly doesn’t help. People survive on hope, particularly when things are at their toughest.

I think most people are aware of the challenges this community faces and I never meant to suggest that they shouldn’t be discussed but when the same person shows up to reiterate the same points on every post (sometimes three or four times) they are guilty of propagandizing and it shouldn’t be any more acceptable than “boosterism” (I’m not talking about you, by the way). I can’t help but feel that I’m being taken advantage of.

Saskatoon is going through a healing process and I am encouraged that things do seem to be improving on the affordability front as each day passes. Yes, it’s still expensive but it’s improving. Yes, Albertans still earn much more than we do, but we are still seeing income growth at a faster pace than most. Things may be a little broken but they aren’t completely destroyed.

I hope that this province can find its way back to a place where smart young people like you will want to, and be able to make a future here. I’m not sure if you know Nick but I have a 23 year old daughter and a 20 year old son. More than anything else, and I mean anything, I hope that they’ll be able to make a future here. I wish you the best for a happy future as well.

Yes, that’s the thing. Most don’t seem to realize that the profits and bounces resulting from the recent government/monetary intervention are coming from our future selves. Let’s hope our future paychecks can cover it.

Btw, I think your guesses for averages may be a tad on the low side. What are you pricing in with those numbers, if anything? Thanks.

Crikey, toast. I don’t feel we’ve hit bottom with either the housing or stock market and at some point in the not-too-distant future (when we’ve exhausted our ability to borrow) the bill will come due in the form of taxes and high interest rates.

You’re right, until rent starts coming down the problem is still evident. I hear your apartment block switched property managment. I sure hope you and my brother will get $100 knocked off your rent once they get their $hit organized.

All it says to me, is that as many units that are now open (whether it was due to specs not being able to sell them and are now renting them) and trying to ‘rent’ for $1200 for a 1 bedroom ‘fixed’ up condo…and no one’s biting if they don’t have to.

It doesn’t say that the rental crisis is over-to me at least. They could have 100 new buildings of condo’s that are open for rent, but if they are priced way too high, people still aren’t going to rent or be able to.

Whew! I was getting scared, I thought the governments would let them fail, but they won’t. Good for me, my 90 Dogdge Shadow will keep its value.:)

Everyday there seeems to be significantly more listings then sales yet total listings don’t increase proportionatly. Is this because sellers are cancelling, re-pricing, and de-listing. Whatever the case, it seems to provide some stability in the market by keeping listings from ballooning out of control. I know a lot of sellers did’nt sell for the price they had hoped for and reverted back to plan B, which includes staying put for the time being.

Saskatoon is a nice place to live.

I just don’t think it justifies being one of the most expensive places in the country to live. We can avoid that thought all we want as locals, but being expensive is going to make recruitment hard. Having average wages far behind adjacent Alberta will make recruitment hard. Those crime numbers we ignore or trivialize, annual features of Saskatoon and Regina as #1 and #2 (or #2 and #1) from Statistics Canada or Maclean’s are read by the rest of the country … and make recruitment hard.

It’s unfortunate we seem to need spin to sell Saskatoon. It is a perfectly liveable jem, just a bit of a topaz priced like a diamond. Prices went up too far too fast and I expect will be some time on the way down. I moved to Regina to save money. I suspect others will move away until living in Saskatoon makes financial sense, instead of just emotional.

That’s it for me then Norm, when I was considering buying in Saskatoon I would have looked you up. An agent who will be frank and honest is more valuable than a positive booster. You have undoubtedly helped many buyers find fair prices, and sellers sell at reasonable prices, in a reasonable time frame.

Nick Henselmeier

“let me go back to my Lexus and get some ID”

Oh, you’ve got us figured out don’t you?

I think I would be inclined to quickly adopt an alias and sign in under the assumed name. “Nice to meet you Mr. Mouse, ummm, Mr. Mickey Mouse.”

“I have been to a few open houses Norm and his co-workers have held – all have been very professional and answered any questions I had.”

You must be confusing me with someone professional. Thank you.

Really, when you think about it, the idea of greeting a total stranger at the door and then inviting them to tour each room of the house unattended with no idea of who they are is a bit strange. Things occasionally go missing, and once in a while a creepy man comes out of the bedroom in woman’s underwear. Apparently, this is perfectly legal provided you bring your own woman’s underwear.

The only other time I was told to sign in I used my old address when I lived in Edmonton, when the agent noticed there was no phone number, she questioned why and I told her it was unlisted. Agents quickly get the message when they try to hand me a business card after prying for info and I tell them to save a tree -keep the paper.

Note of interest – I have been to a few open houses Norm and his co-workers have held – all have been very professional and answered any questions I had.

MVA

Man, you’re not kidding about it being quiet.

“Went to an open house last weekend where the agent wouldn’t let me see the house until I signed in.”

Wow! Did they ask you for ID?

Went to an open house last weekend where the agent wouldn’t let me see the house until I signed in. Anybody else come across that before?

“you just blew my mind.”

LOL, Dude! No, to acknowledge something is not to wish it or to hope to assist it. Amazing, I know.

Things are definitely getting interesting in the condo market.

Duuuude!

Whoa!

Dude,

you just blew my mind.

Condo explosion result of arson

http://www.thestarphoenix.com/news/Condo+explosion+result+arson/1540596/story.html

Not that I want to say a speculator started it but someone did. Thankfully, nobody got hurt.

“I feel that often people base their predictions based on what they want or hope will happen”

Conversely, people often assume that because someone thinks something might happen, that they want it to happen.

Clearly prices passed the point of what was healthy and sustainable here in Saskatoon, and yes, lower prices are good for nearly everyone, and especially the real estate industry. I am certainly not hoping to see increases.

A number of the real estate blogs I read are available on the side bar.

Best wishes Rick.

My apoligies for the incorrect listing total, I did’nt mention that I was combining Saskhouses.com with the MLS, which for clarity I should have.

At this point in time I’m not a buyer because I’m not motivated by lifestyle or price. After 20+ years of homeownership, selling last summer, I guess I could say that home prices falling would be better then rising from my vantage point. However I feel that often people base their predictions based on what they want or hope will happen, I think I would like to refrain from this type of biased opinionation, perhaps it’s just better to be opportunistic and make the best out of whatever the market and the economy offers.

On the graph side I’m watching the 6 week average and the 4 week median, at $250K and $240K support levels, higher condo sales could influence breaching these levels never the less for me these are significant benchmarks. If prices do touch these levels or fall below them what will be the next level of resistance or will there be any, who knows, certainly not me. But as prices rise buyers in numbers begin to remove themselves, and when prices fall buyers in numbers begin to re-engage. If I worked in real-estate I guess I would view falling or lower prices a good thing, the only people who really get hurt are momentum speculators, however the knife cuts both ways on speculation, so for speculators who made a bundle then cleared the table of their chips, well done! For those who are now sinking, that’s the way the cookie crumbles, I’m sure they will live to fight another day and quite possibly recoup all their losses in real estate or through another investment vehicle.

This is a good blog site, do you have any referals Norm as to other blog sites that you enjoy reading?

Vancouver mortgages with irony

We were talking about monthly averages for the residential category as reported by SRAR. It hit $266,720 in March. With three reporting days remaining in April it’s sitting at about $273,400 right now.

“First, if there’s going to be an inventory surge, it’s going to happen in the next 30-45 days.”

Agreed. That’s why I suggested to Rick that he may want to watch and see what unfolds there.

“More buyers may adopt a “wait-and-see” approach.”

They may, but I’ll remind you that people were warning that buyers would vanish when the 40-year mortgage did. Then they warned that buyers would disappear when it was clear that prices were coming down. Then they warned that buyers would take the sideline when the media started reporting prices are down year-over-year. I’m starting to think that there will be enough buyers around to create a decent demand as long as they have jobs and 3.5% mortgages available.

“Finally, we have a lot of “cheap” inventory in the form of condos (close to a year’s supply if I’m not mistaken).”

You are mistaken, yes. There is a lot of condo inventory (493 units in total). I’m not sure what you consider a “cheap condo” but there are 306 active condo listings priced up to $250,000 and 81 sales in the past thirty days. That’s about a 3.8 month supply in that particular segment. It goes to 4.7 months when you factor in the higher end units.

“All it will take is a few fire sales from nervous condo developers to make things a lot more interesting…”

Definitely open to the idea that anything could still happen but if we want to be honest we would certainly have to acknowledge that the Saskatoon real estate market looks a heck of a lot better than it did six months ago when you had a supply greater than 8 months (1495 listings vs 181 sales in November). The absorption rate has been steadily dropping since that time. In March, it fell to 5 months. Unless listings explode in the next three days it’s nearly certain that it will decline again to around 4.5 months in April.

I can see some pressure forming at the upper end of the market. Not sure how that falls out but my general impression is that it’s not too difficult to unload that $300,000 bungalow right now and since these homes make up the lion’s share of the market prices probably aren’t going to be falling off a cliff unless some really nasty stuff comes at us from somewhere. Still, I will not be surprised if we see a $260K average through this quarter (more condos are selling), and I won’t be surprised if we see a $280K average either.