Saskatoon real estate week in review: August 16-20 2010
Saskatoon real estate sales were up again from last week, but not by much. Firm sales of detached houses and condominiums rose by two to reach sixty-eight units. This week’s sales fell far short of the number traded during the same week last year when 114 Saskatoon homes picked up a sold sign.
New listings, on the other hand, were a brisk business this week as local agents brought in the largest number of properties for any week in the past three months. 141 Saskatoon homes hit the MLS® system to record a gain of twenty-eight compared to last week, and forty when compared with the same period in 2009.
Click the image for a larger version of the graph.
The inventory of active MLS® listings (all residential) moved higher again for the third consecutive week. It grew by sixteen properties from the week before to finish at 1387, a gain of roughly sixteen percent compared against the same point in 2009 when 1165 properties showed an active status on the system. Condominium inventory actually dropped by six units this week to 482 but remained up sharply from the same time last year when just 380 condos were available. This year’s number is within striking distance of the 488 condominiums that were on the market at this time in 2008 when inventory was within weeks of reaching all time highs for Saskatoon. The number of single-family homes for sale in the Saskatoon market grew by sixteen over the course of the week to reach 827, up from 676 available at the same time last year and still well below the 1,067 houses that were for sale at this time the previous year.
Click the image for a larger version of the graph.
Cancelled and withdrawn listings were steady at thirty-nine properties with twenty-one of those immediately returning for another go at the market, most at a lower price. An additional sixty-two MLS® listings saw a price adjustment last week.
Prices continued on this crazy up and down movement that’s been going since the end of May. This week was up as the average selling price of a Saskatoon home spiked but fell just short of the record numbers for the year at $326,594. The six-week average gained forty-five hundred dollars over last week to reach $297,291, up nearly fifteen thousand from the same week a year ago. The four-week median price swung wildly higher gaining $11,500 from last week to reach $283,750 and finished nearly four thousand dollars higher than it was at this time in 2009.
Click the image for a larger version of the graph.
Overbid sales bounced back to account for nearly ten percent of sales, but four of the six sales reported as having sold above the asking price were new homes. Given the large overbids recorded that brought the average to a stunning $19,163 it’s probably safe to assume that the final tally included additional improvements to the properties that were not included in the asking price. The two resale homes that did go above list averaged just $2600. An additional four sellers completed a deal at the asking price while fifty-eight of sixty-eight sellers agreed to a reduced price with an average discount of $9,902, or roughly three percent of list.
Click the image for a larger version of the chart.
Highlights from the news this week
CREA economist releases and reviews Canada’s July housing stats
Wellesley Institute releases “Precarious Housing in Canada”
House prices forecast to stagnate for several years
Canadian homes sales sink 30% in July
Canadians shouldn’t expect hot deals as market cools
City seeks tenant for Mendel once gallery moves (local)
Report backs spending $2.6M for affordable housing projects (local)
Canada and Saskatchewan open new affordable housing in Saskatoon
Canada’s housing market can’t stay hot forever
A map displaying the boundaries of Saskatoon real estate areas is here.
An overview of data collection and calculation practices for our statistical reports ishere.
I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions. All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.
Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS® listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.
Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate
17 comments so far. We'd love to hear your thoughts.
August 21st, 2010 at 6:38 PM
Sales have collapsed over 30% this month compared to last year. Looks like saskatoon has caught up to nations decline. At least realtors are not blaming the decline on nice weather like bc.
August 21st, 2010 at 7:09 PM
bubble,
Lol. Don’t get too deep into your party. A third of the month is still waiting to be counted.
August 21st, 2010 at 10:39 PM
Norm, what was the peak number of condominium listings for 2008? Looks like listings could peak around 1,500 this year if trends continue.
August 21st, 2010 at 11:45 PM
So what sorts of high-end sales boosted the numbers this week, Norm?
Inventory seems to have decided on a trajectory, and is showing a positive slope — albeit a less inclined one than early in the year, but it’s still going in an unpleasant direction if you’re a seller. (Or at least I would think.)
August 22nd, 2010 at 9:15 AM
Bubble,
I read the news article where nice weather in July along with the HST was the reason for drop in sales yoy according to a few BC realtors. This month… forest fires?
I don’t think I can make it but Garth Turner is coming to Saskatoon again. Guess he did not sell enough books last time around. Or maybe we just don’t get his gospel and he is trying to change our ways. http://www.dundeewealth.com/adv/khegedus_5737.html
August 22nd, 2010 at 9:37 AM
Jason,
I believe that condo inventory in 2008 topped out at the end of the week of September 27 at 543 units.
Bookrat,
We have a $745K in area 1 and a $785K in area 2, but it looks more like a lack of low end sales has likely contributed more to the high average this week. Areas 1-3 record just 10 sales below $250K.
Doug,
A few of the regulars here, including myself, went to see Garth the last time he was here. I was a bit surprised at how little he talked about real estate. I would say that his talk was 10% on why things are the way they are and 90% investment recommendations.
I bought a book.
August 22nd, 2010 at 8:25 PM
Norm, thanks. I think we might come close to the 2008 highpoint for condos. Have you heard anything on River Landing? (still going ahead?) I was a little disappointed that Garth didn’t focus more on real estate; perhaps this time will be different.
I didn’t agree at all with his investment recommendations on India and China. China in particular screams “bubble”. For those that think the US was quite the show: 51% of Shanghai apartments, 66% Beijing flats and more than 70% of units in Hainan are vacant. Can we say “speculation”?
August 23rd, 2010 at 8:32 AM
“I think we might come close to the 2008 highpoint for condos.”
Certainly looks possible. We’re only about ten percent lower now.
“Have you heard anything on River Landing.”
Well, yes. The last I heard they were going to be “moving dirt by June or July” so I expect that’s what’s currently going on.
Actually, I was down that way on June 27. This is all I saw going on. I couldn’t find time to make fun of it then.
August 23rd, 2010 at 9:53 AM
Norm, “moving dirt by June or July”. Sounds exciting… it would now seem there’s the distinct possibility we’ll have an open pit to accompany the debate the next time this project stalls. My vote is still for an IMAX.
August 23rd, 2010 at 3:52 PM
Nice double-doors, but I thought it was supposed to be a highrise…
On another note, RBC’s posted rate getting cut to 5.39%, 5 year 3.75% discounted is now available. Think this will be as low as they go?
August 23rd, 2010 at 10:22 PM
Thanks Brian,
I’m hearing that RBC is getting a bit tougher dealing with their mortgage applications. Clearly though, they’re still very interested in real estate business. I believe this is the fourth decrease they’ve led on in just a few weeks.
August 23rd, 2010 at 11:29 PM
I strongly suspect that when people heard the phrase ‘moving dirt’ they had in mind something a tad larger than the pile in the front of the picture…
August 24th, 2010 at 10:22 AM
Norm, if you get a youtube channel, having some clips like these would be awesome.
http://www.youtube.com/user/MikeFotiouRealEstate
August 24th, 2010 at 10:06 PM
Regarding 5-year fixed mortgage rates, the 5 year bond yield keeps bouncing lower and closed at 2.07 today: http://bit.ly/9yGgoU
Will it go below 2%, I wonder? It almost makes me think that the market “pricing in” too much doom, but then again…
In a not directly-related but somewhat-connected universe, US resale data was released today:
June 2010 Exisiting Home Sales Plummet 27.2% http://bit.ly/9knEj0
Some nasty data points:
* National median existing-home price was $182,600 in July 2010 — 0.7% higher than June 2009.
* Distressed homes were 32% of sales
* All-cash sales were at 30%
* Total housing inventory rose 2.5% to 3.98 million homes — an 12.5 month supply at the current sales pace, up from 8.9 months in May.
Norm, regarding YouTube clips of the sort shown above: this is a purely subjective and opinionated plea, but don’t. Please don’t.
August 27th, 2010 at 11:18 AM
Barring a miracle sales will see a drop of at least 25% nationally. Saskatoon will be right in the thick of it. To expect sales to drop that much and expect prices to remain the same is wishful thinking.especially with high inventory. Housing is the biggest part of our economy with spinoffs so it doesn’t take a scientist to know what is coming next. Its no secret I want to buy a house but not at bubble prices
There might be some first time buyers out there but that pool is shallow now. Investors are goin south cause nothing makes sense for rentals here especially when rates go back to normal numbers. So it is mostly people with equity who can afford property. Not a sign of a healthy or balanced markets.
August 27th, 2010 at 4:36 PM
At least we’re not going for broke like Ontario.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/neil-reynolds/ontario-like-california-going-for-broke/article1684035/
August 28th, 2010 at 8:08 AM
To expect sales to drop that much and expect prices to remain the same is wishful thinking, especially with high inventory.
There is now roughly 20% more residential inventory than there was a year ago. Sales will likely be off 20-22% in August. No doubt, it’s a completely different market and “balanced” is not a word that a lot of sellers would use to describe it.
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