Reversal of fortune: Gov’t expects $1.3 billion potash revenue shortfall
http://www.thestarphoenix.com/Reversal+fortune+expects+billion+potash+revenue+shortfall/1893494/story.html
“The Saskatchewan Party government acknowledged a major reversal of fortune just over three months after releasing a big-spending provincial budget built around potash royalties… Releasing the province’s first quarter financial report, Finance Minister Rod Gantefoer said Friday that it will take in $1.3 billion less from potash than it had projected… Overall revenue has still declined by $558 million over budget, leaving a thin $50 million surplus… As well, the volume of (Potash) sales is now pegged at 600 million tonnes, far below the volumes that have occurred over the last decade.”

Now in order to balance the budget, they’ve deferred $95M on the new Children’s Hospital, delayed $30M in education infrastructure spending, reduced $49M in “vacancy management” (ie: government cost-cutting) and taking a $185M dividend from the sale of SaskFerco.

The party’s over, and we’re now in the same situation as Alberta – where instead of being more conservative with revenue projections, the SK government has spent with wanton abandon. And let’s not forget the remaining provincial labour unions that yesterday announced they expect “reasonable” wage increases with all new contracts moving forward.

I think the increases are probably par for the course with construction costs over the past few years, and arguable it’s a much-needed addition and improvement to the waterfront.

Well-timed photo intrusion turns Banff squirrel into Internet celebrity
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/posted/archive/2009/08/13/canadian-squirrel-becomes-internet-celebrity.aspx

“Norm, do you see that type of bidding activity contagiousness spreading across Canada.”

I sure hope not. Inventory is definitely light in some price categories but there are no speculators so most of the buying activity is based on actual affordability. I think we’re still operating at our upper limits of affordability.

wonder how long Sask can hold the HST at bay and what impact it could have here.

I hear that Toronto is insane and that about a third of all listings are subject to bidding wars. I believe that Vancouver is also out of control.

It only makes sense in this new world, which makes little sense, that our most expensive housing markets would be going through this kind of thing.

Nice to hear from you. I hope that you’re well and that things are taking off for you in Calgary.

Real estate seems to be brisk across the country, and Saskatoon is no exception, but we aren’t seeing the crazy kind of bidding stuff that we’re hearing about elsewhere. That suits me just fine.

Thanks again for stopping.

Lol. Love it!

Jason,

Interesting numbers. Similar to the housing start numbers. Large drops YTD (72%), but some gains for July 2009 over last July (43%).

Woo-hoo!

Interesting insolvency numbers from StatsCan today:

Only NWT and Nunavut saw a higher % increase YOY. Gah.

This is awesome because it seems that the more bad news we get, the better housing and stock markets get. I think we’re gonna be rich!

Canadian Bankruptcies Skyrocket in June
http://www.thestar.com/business/article/679449
“The number of bankruptcies rose by a staggering 51.6 per cent in June compared to the year before, as more Canadian consumers and businesses were unable to pay their debt… The number of proposals, a last ditch effort to pay creditors a portion of what they are owed, also jumped by 49.5 per cent.”

We’ll see what the numbers for July are in September, but these don’t seem to be indicators that we’re entering any period of recovery, rather the reverse (that we could in fact be sliding into a deeper recession/depression).

These are the same employment figures that we’ve been relying on forever, whether they’re good or bad. Hopefully Statistics Canada knows how to compile accurate stats.

These are also the “seasonally adjusted” numbers.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/cgi-bin/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SDDS=3701&lang=en&db=imdb&adm=8&dis=2#b10

Doug, you make a lot of great points. I know exactly what you’re saying about confidence, and this province definitely has some unique potential (provided they don’t adopt Alberta’s play book and instead toss most of their strategies, starting with royalties). Let’s hope that many of these young first-time homebuyers haven’t gotten in over their heads (and vastly underwater) in the process.

I’ve heard about architects in the states who are getting jobs as waiters to make ends meet. The recession has definately hit Saskatchewan, our company exports about 40% to the states and we’ve been hit hard. I’m actually surprised by how strong demand is for housing right now, but our company also just hired someone from Ontario and I have a feeling that while its tough here — its really tough everywhere else.

Saskatchewan has some great advantages that others don’t. Our mining industry isn’t going anywhere and Agriculture is doing well. Our high tech sector and export industries are hurting like everyone else but as long as we survive for a year or two I think we’ll be fine and in the mean time we’re helping to keep the economy going.

I have no idea why people are buying houses, but its good in that it showing people have confidence in their future in this city. As long as that confidence exists, Saskatoon will succeed – I lived in rural Saskatchewan for years where that confidence didn’t exist — young people moved away, businesses were lost with retirements, and communities died. I have a feeling that sentiment now exists in a lot of places outside of Saskatchewan and I don’t think we appreciate just how good we have it here.

Were those recent population estimates produced by the City of Saskatoon?