Saskatoon real estate week in review-December 28 to January 1 2010
A total of twenty-five single-family homes and condominiums were reported sold to the Saskatoon MLS system over the past week, a drop of five from the previous week, but nearly double the number that traded during the same period last year.
Thirteen new listings were offered for sale over the past seven days, down two from last week, and lower on a year-over-year basis by nine properties.
Saskatoon home sales exceeded new listings for the third consecutive week, a fairly common occurrence at this time of year as people are generally not inclined to be listing a home for sale over the holidays unless they really have to get a move on. Throw in one hundred and five expired listings this week and watch the total listing inventory tumble to just six hundred and fifteen properties, about fifteen percent lower than last week’s close, and in fact, approaching seasonal norms for the first time in twenty months. We saw similar activity during the final week of 2008 when nearly fifteen percent of active listings fell out of the system but close to half of them returned the following week as sellers put the holidays behind them and got back to work on the selling effort. I expect we’ll see equally strong listing activity next week. As of this morning there are 353 single-family homes and 220 condominiums showing an active status, down from 671 and 358 respectively at this time last year. Based on December’s final sale numbers of 211 units we now have less than a three-month supply of homes, a seller’s market by most definitions.
This week, there was just one cancelled. Three sellers adjusted their asking price.
Following four exceptionally strong weeks for home prices, the average selling price of a Saskatoon home slid lower falling about forty–two thousand dollars from last week to $268,336, but still managing to finish ahead of last year’s average by roughly three thousand dollars. The six-week average found higher ground breaking $290K for the first time this year and reaching its peak during this final week of 2009 at $291,889, twenty-two thousand dollars higher than it was for the same week last year. The four-week median moved in the opposite direction falling just over seven thousand dollars to $276,750 and finished roughly thirty-three thousand dollars higher than it was during the closing week of 2008.
Click the image for a larger version of the graph.
The average underbid fell to $8,997 from $10,420 last week, for an average discount of 3.1% of the asking price, down from 3.4% last week.
Does anyone have a 2010 predictions they’d like to share?
Happy New Year, and thanks again for reading.
A map displaying the boundaries of Saskatoon real estate areas is here.
An overview of data collection and calculation practices for our statistical reports is here.
I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions. All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.
Real estate geeks can follow our daily updates on Twitter @norm_fisher.
Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate
5 comments so far. We'd love to hear your thoughts.
January 2nd, 2010 at 8:54 PM
Thanks Norm. Do we know yet what the average selling price was in 2009 compared to 2008? (for the year, that is)
2010 predictions… Hmmm. Well, we ended the year with fewer listings that I’d anticipated, and that would seem to indicate a stronger-than-normal demand – which I think will continue until at least late in the Spring. I believe that as it becomes more apparent what the Government may do with revising mortgages and what the Bank of Canada will do with interest rates (30/10% and 50-100 points seem to be good indicators), we’ll see some of the insanity from out East and West transplanted here (temporarily of course) in the form of waves of pre-qualified buyers hitting the market.
This will most likely happen around May-June (or possibly sooner, depending on official announcements). While this will artificially push up prices in the interim, I think we’ll see a collapse to pre-2010 levels by the end of the year.
Happy New Year to everyone and all the best in 2010!
January 2nd, 2010 at 9:15 PM
Hey Jason,
Nice to see you. Happy New Year too you as well.
The average sale price for 2009 came it at $278,732 down from $287,582 in 2008. A little more here: http://www.teamfisher.com/saskatoon/saskatoon-at-a-glance/
I’ve also completed the “ten-year house price trend” for each Saskatoon neighbourhood. There is still some work to do on these pages but you can find the average price for houses in each area and see what they did last year.
http://www.teamfisher.com/saskatoon-neighbourhoods/
Your predictions sound reasonable. The average sale price broke $290K in December and it appears to be a reasonably accurate reflection of the market. I’m hoping that we’re high enough that we won’t see a bunch of speculation happening but I’m open. Single-family homes have slid to nearly a 2.5 month supply.
January 3rd, 2010 at 11:58 AM
The market seems to hit bottom 3 years after hearing “Buy now or be priced out forever”. 2008 was the year I heard that quote. We’ve past thru the first year and now entering the second. Prepare for declines for next 2 years
Interesting article in the Star Phoenix, saying how the PotashCorp “look greedy and foolish” in 2009. Something I had voiced in a past comment. The news report, also talks about how SK gov’t miscalculated price and revenue from potash. Potash can go lower that current prices. Afterall, Russian farmers are paying approx $125 US/tonne because potash has a regulated price cap in Russia. The PotashCorp is now dependant on N. American markets for sales and if I was a farmer, I’d be feeling somewhat gouged for something in my backyard.
I think 2010 will be an amplification of government miscalculations and failures of policy. The markets will continue to shakeout the greedy and foolish. The government’s inability to withdraw/stop stimulus spending without surgical precision will aid in market decline.
On a brighter side of things Norm, the statistic graphs you produce are very good. I also enjoy following you daily statistical sales tweets. Happy New Years and the best to you in 2010!
Steven
aka DrakeVenture
January 3rd, 2010 at 7:53 PM
I tend to agree with Jason’s outlook and am glad that it seems to have moderated from last year at this time. I remember projections (sorry Jason, it might not have been you but others) of 2500+ listings, price drops to pre 2007 levels etc. Inventory may be squeezed a little until spring as new builds on spec has diminished greatly. People are more cautious these days and any chance of ridiculous overbids becoming the norm again is out of the question. Agressively priced properties will draw lots of interest but that is always the case.
If/when interest rates rise, it won’t be to any calaclysmic number that reasonable people shouldn’t have already foreseen. If the BOC tries increasing rates too fast, the Canadian dollar will rise to levels where much of the eastern Canadian economic base will be adversely affected. If we do see interest rates spikes and corresponding re values drop, it will be over a prolongued time period as to soften the blow to both sectors. By years end I predict home prices to remain similar to where they are now or possibily (max.) a 5-10% drop. We still might see a flux of in-migration to the province as Eastern Canada’s economy wakes up to the inherent weaknessess of it’s economic reality.
January 3rd, 2010 at 9:35 PM
I was reading my 2009 predictions earlier this evening, and while Q1 and Q2 were not far off the mark, Q’s 3 and 4 were a complete hash. The reason they were a complete hash, of course, is that we saw a wall of governmental intervention in the markets the likes of which we have never seen. As I feel it’s still currently impossible to strip the effects of government (taxpayer) stimulus from anything resembling fundamentals, this year I will take a pass on forecasting.
I will boldly predict, however, that eventually the piper will have to be paid. I also boldly predict that governmental policy will delay all of this as long as possible.
All the best of the New Year to you all!