I hear you Norm! I let a good chunk of my savings get pissed away in the market downturn as well. People keep telling me that I’m so young yet and that I have a very long time horizon; well, it’s not very reassuring to hear that people who invested in 1996 for the long haul are probably breaking even right now if they’re lucky. Oh well, I should just be happy that I do have many years ahead of me; I feel for the folks that are retirement age and were dependant on the income generated from their savings.

Brian, it’s good to hear from someone with a not so negative outlook. I like to hear what people are saying on both sides of the real estate issue and to be honest, the optimists were being relatively quiet.

Thanks. I appreciate hearing your further thoughts.

I have my moments when I’m frustrated with the negativity, and I’m sure I have my days when I slip into it myself (like the week that half of my life savings slipped away, even though I saw it coming, but because I allowed myself to be convinced by some eternal optimist that everything would be okay). The real issue for me is transparency. I could delete the comments that I don’t like but I would do so at the risk of being perceived as someone who is trying to control the discussion and perceptions of the market. Alternatively, I can leave the forum open for all to make their arguments. I wish there were more people who would be willing to make the counter-point. Unfortunately, the bears seem far more talkative lately.

I do want to assure you though that this blog is probably significantly under trafficked to actually influence the direction of the market. You are correct though that it can certainly influence people, but people are pretty sharp for the most part. Believe it or not, some of our more regular readers are buying properties in spite of the generally negative tone about the future of prices.

There are no rural numbers in the stats that I post. Everything is area 1 to 5. I did do something awhile back that focused on fairly mainstream property types but if time allows I’ll see if I can’t put something together along the lines of single family homes $200-400K.

Your friends could very well have sold their house for an additional $50K under the right circumstances. When pricing a property one can think in terms of possibilities, or probabilities, and there is a degree of risk associated with each approach. Pricing for what’s possible is the easy choice when a market is appreciating because you can always correct by coming down to the right price if you’re wrong. When the right price is trending downwards, coming down to today’s right price a month from now won’t work. Many a Saskatoon seller has learned the lessons of “chasing the market down.” There are dozens of homes listed right now that have been on the market for a long time, which are offered far below their initial list price, which could have easily sold well above their current asking price several months ago. Much like it was when prices were increasing at insane rates, it is admittedly a bit of a best guess at this time as well.

Thanks again Brian. I really do appreciate hearing from you again.

Phil – it doesn’t surprise me that Norm sold your home in 3 days in this market, last fall friends of mine sold their home privately for $23,000 above the listing price suggested by the Realtors they interviewed (including Norm) within a few weeks, the truth is that a well staged appealing home will still sell easily and possibly quickly – the fact that you think its so special reflects that this blog may have misled you on the state of our market! And yes Norm is very good, and this level of misleading from the contributor to this blog and the statistics provided is my issue.

I honestly don’t believe a single representation of inventory levels can be used in any accurate analysis.

I’d love to see what you can put together statistically on $200,000-$400,000 detached single family dwellings within the city limits.

Group think is incredibly strong, it played a major role last year, and will play a major role in bringing us down as well if we’re not careful. I know you numbers guys might have issue with that statement but not everything has an easy metric to point at.

However With numbers like that and your latest blog entry Saskatoon’s home sale market continued to stabilize in February: SRAR you may just have redeemed yourself.

Within the next 6 months we’re probably going to see the lowest mortgage rates in history. I would be remiss however if I didn’t also point out that rates really have nowhere to go but up from here, and at the rate governments are currently running deficits, interest rates could see an early return to high single-digits faster than anyone imagines.

Whenever someone uses phrases like “normalizing” or “stabilizing” I can’t help but think of the story of the Titanic and where the real danger lay unseen… beneath the surface.

Regarding your exchange with L.oki; Residential units sales were off 42% in February compared to February 2008. Year to date, 2009 is down 36% compared to last year. I think L.oki’s point is that today’s sale numbers are more in the “normal” range than the previous two years. Here are the year to date figures over the past number of years.

2009 – 423

2008 – 667

2007 – 540

2006 – 395

2005 – 349

2004 – 366

I would maintain that sale numbers are remarkably good given all that’s going on around us. Demand is not our biggest problem right now, though it certainly could become one further down the road. Supply, on the other hand is completely off of the charts and there’s simply no credible way that those numbers can be viewed as “normal.” While it would be fair to say that inventory levels were unusually low during the previous two years they are easily double what could be considered “normal” and likely to get worse before they get better.

Thanks so much. I appreciate the good words and the business. Take care.

That would be interesting to see another rate drop. Wonder if this happens whether or not the evil banks will lower their rates accordingly?

Have the banks/mortgage brokers lowered accordingly over the past few reductions?

I think Norm is a good realtor.

Phil

While I really appreciate the support, I’ve removed your comment. I don’t have any desire to antagonize Brian or anyone else. Thanks for understanding.

Jason,

50 new listings, 17 sales, 1,256 actives. Based on today’s stock market activity I have a feeling that most of the RSP purchases where directed elsewhere.

Heather,

Thanks so much. I appreciate your kind words, and the opportunity to work with you. Hope you are well.

cyn_d,
Bring it on, when the time is right for you. Looking forward to it.

As for the accuracy of the data, I’d just point out that each statistical post that I create has a link at the bottom which provides details on where the data comes from, how it’s calculated, and its limitations.

I’ll also mention that this data does not come from “independent research” which I could just make up but from an MLS system. It’s my understanding that somewhere in the neighbourhood of 1,100 people, most of them competitors, have access to the same data. Every statistic that I report is potentially subject to an audit by my peers. The idea that I could get away with fudging numbers for any significant period of time is simply not credible. It cannot happen. That is not to say that an error couldn’t occur, and I am quite certain that some errors have occurred. As always, if anyone sees something that strikes them as strange they are welcome to bring it up. I will review any bit of data that is questionable and if I’ve made an error I’ll acknowledge it publicly, thank the person who brought it to my attention and correct the mistake. That’s really the best I can do.

I would love to have an opportunity to openly address Brian’s concerns. I have no problem being accountable for anything that I’ve said.

“99% of statistics are made up?”

Haha, take what you want from that, but even Norm’s statistics must be taken with a grain of salt. And I’m sure Norm will admit that as well, you can’t take his website for the truth, you always need to cross reference. (On a further note, statistics should always be followed by their perameters and errors. For instance, does Norm consider private sales or just realtors? Does the # of listings consider those that were taken off the market in January and put back in May. Or does the same house get counted as 2 listings but only sold once, etc, etc. I would imagine most of the statistics on this website are +/- 10 to 15%.

As for Jason, 50% off sales? Are you kidding? What kind of statistic is that? Perhaps your comparing to the spikes we had in 2008? But even then…I don’t think that is fair, look at where we are compared to 2006. Still very healthy.

Good comments about Norm. And the rest of you defending him also – dido.

Norm,

Are you prepping yourself for the influx of buyers (of which I am one) when the market turns in our favour? How free is your schedule, say, in six months to a year?

Brian, I’d definitely be curious what your complaint about Norm’s data presentation is. Speaking as someone who both produces and evaluates stats-based claims every day, I can see that Norm has an excellent grasp of how to generate and present numerical data. I’ve never seen him create anything that was untrue or misleading.

I used Norm as my Realtor, and will use him again. He gets top marks in my books, and I’m a die-hard cynic when it comes to real estate agents. Unlike the shortcomings someone can demonstrate in almost any other job, with real estate agents there’s also a lot of potential out there for abuse (even if it’s not entirely done consciously), and it happens, in my experience, with alarming frequency. In the 20 or so transactions I or my family have been involved with, I’ve seen the following to varying degrees:

- making quick and easy commissions by pricing way too low (probably much less common/extreme now that the Internet is around)

- manipulating a buyer (especially an inexperienced one) into a poor deal

- not advertising a listing immediately/adequately so as to try to secure a double-ended transaction with one’s own buyer

- using open-houses only for self-promotion

- spilling the beans to the opposing agent about how far the client will go financially or about how motivated they are in the interests of making the deal

-wearing the home inspector/financial advisor/lawyer hat when not really qualified… and confidently delivering poor advice.

Norm is ethical, reliable, and knowledgeable, produces great ads, and is easy to work with. I’m constantly recommending him… look, just did it again.

“Norm, any surge of new MLS listings in anticipation of the Bank of Canada rate drop that’s expected tomorrow?”

Lol. C’mon, I just reported on this on the weekend and you want an update at 10:09 am Monday? Listings fell back a fair bit when the 28th came and went. Month end expired listings moved us back to 1,255 by the 1st.

Thanks all.

Norm, keep up the good work: it’s a fine line and slippery slope that you have to contend with and you’re doing an excellent job with balancing both sides of the equation! (it’s easier to be a “bear” or “bull” without having to present the other side of the coin)

Roger, you hit the nail on the head (gotta blame somebody). Sure there’s hype, peer pressure and all sorts of media exposure/bias, but at the end of the day who’s responsibility is it to read between the lines before putting pen to paper? And let’s be perfectly honest: if people were more fiscally responsible in the first place, they’d realize that sometimes the hard choice is not taking the path of least resistance and to buck the trend. What’s ironic is that for such a life-changing and financially-altering decision as buying a house people spend less time researching and “kicking the tires” than they do the automobile in their garage. If people left the emotion out of buying a house and spent more time focusing on “what they can afford” vs. “what they’d like” it would be an entirely different housing market altogether.

Now we’re following the same path — only in reverse. Sellers are attempting to resist a gradual fall in prices by holding firm (as buyers continue to dwindle in numbers and underbids increase). This will soon be followed by a glut of inventory, at which point it will be apparent to anyone that a huge correction is looming on the horizon, and you’ll see prices go into free fall as buyers remain firmly on the sidelines.

How much prices will ultimately drop really depends on the will of the average buyer. Those that are prepared to rent and remain on the sidelines stand a very good chance of picking up the deal of a lifetime.

Once again you responded to unworthy criticism with tact and class. That is why you have such a good reputation in Saskatoon. I suspect Brian is a homeowner, investor or flipper that doesn’t like the story the statistics are telling.

You are experiencing exactly what has happened in Calgary, Victoria and Vancouver. Once the markets turned down unhappy real estate bulls and owners starting dropping by the blogs trying to dispute the downturn. Gotta blame somebody – right?

People need to accept that all markets, stock, bond, real estate or commodities, go through up and down cycles. If you bought your home recently and can make your payments over the long term you will see your property increase in value. Unfortunately in the short term you will lose your bragging rights at parties, family gatherings and around the office water cooler.

It could certainly be a lot worse given the conditions on the ground elsewhere. I agree that we are fairly lucky to be where we are.

Brian,

Thanks for the feedback. I’m sorry that you feel that way. If you have any specifics that you could put forward I’d certainly appreciate it. I’m doing my best to present the market in an unbiased manner, but I’m not a statistician so it’s certainly possible that there are better ways to present them.

I echo Bookrat and George’s assertions- this *is* one of the best real estate blogs around. What is your specific issue with the statistics? You can’t expect someone to defend themselves against broad public accusations- especially ones that are presented anonymously and include no specifics about what your issues are. Man up, please.

When the price is rising, every seller sees it, and they raise their prices quickly, because they all want to make more money.

When the price is dropping, every seller resists it, because they do not want to lose ‘money’. Even if a seller sold a property for a low price, and it would go very fast, and the whole market would not see its effect.

So the process of correction will take a longer time than ‘booming’, but it will be accelerated.

“I would love it if the statistics could be presented with some integrity”

Get bent! Norm has one of the best real estate blogs in the country. No spin, no fluff, he lays out the numbers and stats and everybody on this board has an opportunity blog about them.

Not sending someone to Norm as a realtor is your choice and their loss. As all can see Norm is doing quite well with many sold signs on the side bar. And the reason for that? Honesty and integrity!