Saskatoon real estate week in review: July 12-16 2010
Saskatoon real estate sales fell back to a level that has become about average over the past few months. Local agents reported firm sales on fifty single-family homes (houses) and twenty-four condominiums for a total of seventy-four units sales, a drop of sixteen compared to last week, and eighteen fewer than were reported during the same week last year.
New listings also slid lower as Saskatoon home sellers offered up seventy-four single-family homes and forty-one condominiums for a total of 115 listings, a drop of nine from the previous week and a gain of just one when compared with the same week in 2009.
Click the image for a larger version of the graph.
A few weeks ago, the total number of residential listings available on the Saskatoon MLS® reached its highest point for the year at 1427 units. Coincidentally, that number pretty much matched the levels we saw in both 2008 and 2009 for very same week. Of course, in 2008 and 2009 inventory levels headed in different directions after that week and the obvious question that came forward was, “Which of the two paths will this year’s inventory follow?” Just a few weeks later, the answer seems to be “neither.” We did see a bit of a drop as listings that expired at the end of June came off of the system, but since then the total number of Saskatoon homes for sale has remained steady. This week, total inventory finished at 1374 units, up just one from last week and higher than it was at this time last year by sixty-four units, or roughly five percent. As of this morning there are 810 single-family homes and 484 condominiums showing an active status on the Saskatoon MLS® system.
Click the image for a larger version of the graph.
Cancelled and withdrawn listings came in at forty-three with just twenty of those actually staying off the market. Twenty-three returned on the same day they were cancelled disguised as a new listing. Sixty-five home sellers adjusted their asking price this week.
Encouraged by two high-end sales that averaged $870,000 each, the average selling price of a Saskatoon home moved higher for the second week in a row and reached $304,676. The six-week average still managed a week-over-week decline of almost four thousand dollars and slipped to $295,514 to finish about fourteen thousand dollars higher than it was for the same week last year. Following four weeks of declines the four-week median sale price took a fifty six hundred dollar gain when compared with the previous week. It closed the week at $279,900, up just nine hundred dollars on a year-over-year basis.
Click the image for a larger version of the graph.
Once again, the majority of reported sales came in at a price that was lower than asking. Sixty-eight of seventy-four successful home sellers gave up an average of $10,221 or 3.3 percent of the asking price. Two sellers hit their number and four managed a deal above the asking price with an average overbid of $5,113.
The changes that we’re seeing in the market really don’t come as much of a surprise to me given that nearly everyone who normally has a voice in the Canadian housing market has warned of a slow down in the second half of the year. It started in May with very marginal declines. The drop in unit sales accelerated in June and we finished the month seventeen percent lower than the previous year. July is definitely feeling even slower. After the close of business on July 15 just 154 sales had been reported so far for the month putting us on pace for total monthly sales of 308 units, assuming the pace continues at its current level. That would amount to a thirty-percent decline over the previous year and sales that are twenty-one percent below the five-year average for July. Add five percent to the inventory of active listings and it a very different market. Here’s hoping that it doesn’t get much worse than that. ☺
Click the image for a larger version of the chart.
Highlights from the news this week
Housing starts rebuild momentum (local)
Home sales continue to drop
U.S. banks repossess homes at record pace
Canadian real estate – A soft landing or something worse?
Competition watchdog, realtors face off in court this April
Home sales down in June (local)
What’s next for the Canadian housing market?
Rise in housing starts forecast for Saskatoon (local)
A map displaying the boundaries of Saskatoon real estate areas is here.
An overview of data collection and calculation practices for our statistical reports is here.
I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions. All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.
Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS® listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.
Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate
32 comments so far. We'd love to hear your thoughts.
July 18th, 2010 at 6:57 AM
Sale declines are happening all across the country. June10 saw a 20-40% drop from June09 in sales. July looks to be even worse. And this is when inventory is high and rates are still close to all time lows. This is of no surprise to the few of us that believed the house prices did not justify the fundamentals. Think bubble. Some markets have gone completely insane like Vancouver, while others will fall until the average family can afford the average house at average interest rates. My question is will we see low ball real estate ( 80-85% of list price)? This is the reverse of the bidding wars we saw in 2007. Maybe not here, but some places in Canada will experience that.
July 18th, 2010 at 4:17 PM
Thanks Gene,
It will be interesting to see how values are affected by the slow down. 20-40% sale declines won’t get by us without taking a toll, for sure. The writing has been on the wall for some time with the national media publishing bubble stories almost weekly since last November so it shouldn’t come as a big surprise to anyone. It’s really kind of nutty that housing saw any kind of an increase over the last year given everything that has been happening with our economy.
July 19th, 2010 at 9:44 PM
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/saskatchewan/story/2010/07/19/td-saskatchewan-economy-rainfall.html
Will be interesting to see how a second straight year of Saskatchewan’s economy falling short of predictions affects the psyche of home buyers. 1/3 rd drop in economic growth for 2010? I didn’t see that coming. I don’t think most people in Saskatchewan did. Another poster points out the local economy hasn’t really beat anywhere else since 2008. Added to falling home sales, a weaker than expected economy seems a double whammy
July 20th, 2010 at 10:22 AM
JR: The report you mentioned also predicted that Saskatchewan would lead the country in growth in 2011 with a 3.8% increase in real GDP.
Now, predictions aren’t exactly cash in the bank, but since we’re including the gloomy predictions, including the rest of the information would seem fair.
July 20th, 2010 at 2:44 PM
“While obviously devastating, all the homes, buildings and infrastructure that were destroyed in the flood will have to be repaired or replaced, as well as any furnishings and appliances inside the homes and buildings that were ruined. Already, repairs have begun on the Trans-Canada Highway, and there are still plenty of other roads and bridges that will need to be fixed.”
The rebuilding will add to our GDP and probably save us from being last in GDP growth this year. But I fail to see how this kind of GDP growth makes us more wealthy. Maybe it is just one of the flaws of using GDP as a measure of wealth.
Gene,
interesting angle. If vacant properties were sitting for a long time and sellers must sell, a buyers loses nothing with a lower bid than usual. I could see this working if conditions worsen for sellers but not yet.
July 20th, 2010 at 7:22 PM
So lawtalking, this year is off, again, but we should be optimistic because after a bad year next years growth will look even better?
July 21st, 2010 at 2:08 AM
JR: I didn’t say that. I’m not sure where the strawman argument came from.
I’m a little surprised that the benefits of full and complete information would be controversial.
July 21st, 2010 at 9:24 AM
I’m not sure that “most people” spend much time thinking about GDP numbers. Maybe I’m wrong but I think the average person is most concerned about whether he/she has a job and what kind of an income they’re earning. Look to the post I put up last week that references several sources which show people from Saskatchewan are earning, spending, investing and growing their net worth while the population continues to grow. It’s just getting harder and harder to make a convincing argument that we should be fearful of the future.
July 21st, 2010 at 1:06 PM
AMEN NORM!!!!
Fear had never helped anyone!! If something drastic happens everyone is F*C#ED!! So everyone please enjoy what Saskatchewan has to offer and if you feel that GDP and such is an important part of your happiness in Saskatchewan I feel sorry for you…
July 21st, 2010 at 8:02 PM
Norm, one stat I wish you would cover is crime in Saskatoon. This IS something that people ARE interested in when considering a new city to live in.
The Statistics Canada numbers for 2009 are now final, and as usual, some disturbing stats for Saskatchewan – Worst in Total Crime Severity Index of any province and Saskatoon – second worst in Total Crime Severity Index, behind Regina (yikes) for any large city – above 100,000.
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/100720/t100720a2-eng.htm
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/100720/t100720a3-eng.htm
Again, not to slander Saskatoon, but if we are going to cover jobs and the economy as a reason to move to Saskatoon, then we should at least make mention of consistently leading, or being among the worst in Canada, in Total Crime, Violent Crime and Assaults. This information seems something which is reasonable for any potential newcomers to know. They may decide a job prospect in Saskatoon is worth it. They may not. But this is a pretty big news story – one I think you should almost dedicate a news tab to.
July 21st, 2010 at 8:04 PM
“Saskatchewan reported the highest CSI among the provinces, followed by Manitoba, British Columbia and Alberta.
Among census metropolitan areas (CMAs), police-reported crime severity was highest in the western centres of Regina, Saskatoon and Winnipeg. Calgary was the only western CMA below the national average.”
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/100720/dq100720a-eng.htm
July 21st, 2010 at 8:05 PM
lawtalkingguy is inventing a strawman to refute a strawman. Obviously you were implying that things will be better than they are now. If the weather can make such an impact upon projections then how is including 2011 including information? Clairvoyance has never been considered information in any science context.
I understand, Mr Fisher, that your livelihood depends on growth, and in fact according to your stats the percent per year growth for the last year was 2.3%. Using the rule of 70 this gives a doubling time of roughly 30 years.
Is this what we want?
Is this what the world needs?
Wesco says fear never helped anyone. It is too simple to refute really. Any knowledge of history demands that fear has very often helped many people. Very recently the very wealthy.
I am a single man. I am well educated. I moved to this city 5 years ago. My income is above the median household income. Yet I cannot reasonably afford to purchase real estate. I could have 5 years ago. Until the conservative government(s) came to power.
5 years ago I rented a 1 bedroom apartment on the top floor of the Candlewood building for $585 per month with a $20 dollar parking fee. It was so nice, overlooking downtown. When I was forced out 3.5 years (condo conversion) later my rent was $1100 per month plus a $50 parking fee. My apartment was eventually for sale for $220 000. It sold. Probably 700 sq ft.
5 years ago housing purchases were about 2.5:1. Now they are about 4.2-4.4:1. Yay.
July 21st, 2010 at 8:13 PM
My final plug for crime stats, this is annual, something you could spin however you want, and if Saskatoon can ever get out of the worst crime centres in Canada, would actually be a positive story. Still, think new home owners would want to know that an annual number, by the federal Stats Can, as of yesterday, again pegs Saskatoon as second worst in Canada for crime
July 21st, 2010 at 8:44 PM
If I may quote Dr Albert Bartlett:
“Can you think of any problem in any area of human endeavor on any scale, from microscopic to global, whose long-term solution is in any demonstrable way aided, assisted, or advanced by further increases in population, locally, nationally, or globally?”
Maybe the economic advancement of a few? Is that a problem?
Another quote:
“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.”
This is where the rule of 70 comes.
July 22nd, 2010 at 4:08 PM
Biberkopf said: “lawtalkingguy is inventing a strawman to refute a strawman. Obviously you were implying that things will be better than they are now.”
No, I didn’t. What I DID say is reproduced in full, below. You’ll notice that in no way did I suggest that the 3.8% number was accurate (I’m not an economist, and would have no way of knowing). I did not imply in any way that things will be better than they are now. In fact I made no predictions or evaluations whatsoever about Saskatchewan’s economic prospects.
What I did do was mention a key piece of the report that was intentionally left out of JR’s post, and state my opinion that cherry-picking pieces that support’s one’s argument while ignoring another (very significant) part of that same report is not a respectable arguing tactic.
I even went out of my way to note that predictions are of questionable value.This doesn’t mean someone can seize upon a 2010 prediction (since it supports the point they wanted to be true anyway) and ignore the corresponding 2011 prediction. Someone who does so is, in my opinion, advancing an agenda rather than being interested in legitimate discussion. Personally, I like legitimate discussion.
My previous comment:
“JR: The report you mentioned also predicted that Saskatchewan would lead the country in growth in 2011 with a 3.8% increase in real GDP.
Now, predictions aren’t exactly cash in the bank, but since we’re including the gloomy predictions, including the rest of the information would seem fair.”
July 22nd, 2010 at 7:11 PM
To lawtalking guy.
What is information? That is the question. These symbols strung together in ascii code is information. I am positive that this is not what you meant by information.
You say: “…including the rest of the information would seem fair.”
If you are intending that the left out ‘information’ is nothing but an aggregation of symbols understandable by an english speaking person, then I don’t see how it is unfair to exclude this ‘information’.
If, though, you are using the term ‘information’ as it is commonly understood, as an influence upon the creation of ideas, then you are implying that the 2011 numbers are actually an influence upon the ideas of the populace. So the economic prediction is information of this type in your argument. Therefore it was not a strawman argument for JR to conclude that you were saying: “So lawtalking, this year is off, again, but we should be optimistic(ideas) because after a bad year next years growth will look even better?”
By using the word ‘fair’ you were definitely implying that the figure for 2011 could be accurate. You reinforce this by prefacing this comment by saying: “but since we’re including the gloomy predictions”. Obviously you interpreted the 2010 prediction as information.
Further you say: “Now, predictions aren’t exactly cash in the bank”. So then they might be? This is exactly not neutral symbolic musings.
Then you say that the 2011 prediction is a part of: “full and complete information”.
There is no strawman argument by JR. He understood exactly what you tried to convey. His head must of been spinning from your comments.
He was commenting on actual information. A prediction based on less than two quarters with half the summer gone etc. Something real that we know. A 2011 prediction is no more information than is the Farmer’s Almanac. ( sorry farmers).
Something like astrology.
So who really is advancing an agenda?
July 22nd, 2010 at 8:14 PM
“To lawtalking guy. What is information? That is the question.”
I love debating abstract concepts and minutiae as much as anyone. I really do. But I doubt anyone else wants us clogging up this site with the discussion. If you want to continue the theoretical discussion, point me towards a forum where it’s more appropriate and I will meet you there.
“So who really is advancing an agenda?”
What agenda would that be? I’d think it would be necessary to have the slightest idea of what a person believes before accusing them of having an agenda, much less advancing one.
I have posted many times on this site over several years regarding Saskatchewan’s economic future and housing prices. To my recollection, every single time I have made a prediction about future housing prices, I have predicted falling prices in real terms. This would be odd if, as you imply, I am advancing some sort of (presumably unjustifiably positive) agenda.
July 22nd, 2010 at 9:19 PM
In fact I would strongly disagree with the comment that people aren’t interested in what you label as ‘minutiae” It is not that. It is the basis of understanding. This is a real estate discussion. Is this not appropriate?
I have read several of your posts.
They do not imply neutrality.
But I will not spend the time to refute every one.
When did you predict falling prices? 2008?
July 22nd, 2010 at 10:15 PM
The most recent time was two months ago:
“I still think there will be short-term price drops and medium-term price stagnation”
http://www.teamfisher.com/just-how-vulnerable-is-canadian-real-estate/
I apparently posted about a hundred times in that thread, so there should be plenty of faulty logic for you to attack
July 23rd, 2010 at 10:34 AM
Oh wonderful, two overly educated people with far too much time on their hands debating the………….zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz…It’s like an epsisode of The Big Bang Theory run amok.
Perhaps a little common sense? We’ve finished 2 quarters and now halfway into the third Q. Crops this year will be weak. Oil and Gas has been stagnant and although the oilpatch is hiring for this fall, the crews will be half the size and companies are hiring experienced, responsible ticketed people only. Think potash sales will rebound enough to make a difference? I don’t see how. China and India aren’t the power houses we thought they were. They aren’t exporting nearly as much because EVERYONE ELSE IS BROKE!!!….lol
So, will 2010 be a banner year? No. Will 2011 rebound and show some growth? No. Look around you…outside of the province and what do you see? Do you see growth and opportunity? Why do you think it will be different here? Has anyone ever considered that a commodities based province might be a straggler in getting hit with the effects of a world wide recession?
We’ve lived and depended far too much on credit. Those with all the money are now thinking….”what a minute……I don’t like where this is going”. Those who bought homes the last couple of years with no money down and 35+ amort’s at rates I had never saw the first 48 years of my life and likely never will again…will the be the first to feel the pinch when rates move even higher and values have sunk.
Norm will still be kicking @ss and selling homes because let’s face it, “There’s a rear end for every seat”
Anyways, I can’t wait to jump on my motorcycle Saturday morning and ride up to Saskatoon and spend some of my hard earned money in your fair city.** Whats with the big deal about opening a Best Buy in Saskatoon??? Read the Star Phoenix this morning about this store opening in Saskatchewans largest city….Wow, now that’s news!
July 23rd, 2010 at 5:00 PM
westcanguy: All easy accesses to Best Buy Are closed. Construction. Coming from the south I would suggest getting to McKercher and coming from the east. There is no South access.
Good comments. You seem to have inside information about the oil industry.
Sorry to bore you, but it is important to make a stand and to think.
Good luck at Best Buy. You should leave at about 0600.
July 23rd, 2010 at 10:19 PM
Actually Biberkopf, I’m not riding up there to go to best buy. There is one where I live and my work takes me all over the prairie provinces so I can hit a Best Buy pretty much anytime I want. I was kinda taking a shot at your local newspaper writing a story about a Best Buy opening up in “Saskatchewan’s largest city”. The media sure tries to build that city up. Not sure why…..It’s the largest city with the strongest entrepreneurial spirit in the province. No need to the chest thump.
Oh – I don’t shop on Saturdays. I have enough stress during the work week. I don’t need to sit in traffic or till line-ups at a store.
Have a great weekend!
I’m only riding up there to get a haircut and have lunch with a friend.
July 23rd, 2010 at 10:33 PM
What, they have a Best Buy where you live, but they don’t have barbers?
July 24th, 2010 at 8:49 AM
Norm,
The number of houses plus condos for sale per the MLS is just a fraction of what is available for sale and what is vacant in Saskatoon. I’ve never seen so many vacant properties sitting empty (well taken car of yes but still empty) Is there another measure that gauges the total number of addresses that are for sale?
How long can overpriced labour costs keep the cost of new builds at up $250 to $350 an above foundation square foot?
Looking at some new condo developments that have been 1/3 vacant for almost two years (Eagle’s Nest) This was 2/3 vacant last summer and never seems reflected since not one MLS listing???. Are our students really going to be able to put up that much money at the paltry wages that Saskatoon offers? Or is it just me that is paid a fraction of what Alberta or Ontario pay. Surely, is someone four years down the road going to pay an extra $75k for the same condo in town or $150k extra for a $500k house that is that much closer to needing a new roof, water heater, furnace, kitchen, etc.
Flabbergasted by Saskatoon poverty (but house rich)
July 24th, 2010 at 10:55 PM
Rob
The bubble has not burst here…yet. Remember the bidding wars in alberta in 06, then we got them
A few months later? The opposite is now happening. Sales are crashing there, nevermind the developers slashing prices 40% in BC.
To forecast the weather or real estate for saskatoon just look west. There is a storm coming.
July 25th, 2010 at 12:30 AM
If prices fall substantially in BC and Alberta first, surely this will encourage people to sell their Saskatoon homes and move west. Many retirees move to BC, usually limited by expensive costs. With so many possessing homes around the half a million dollar mark in Saskatoon, a lateral move to many beautiful retirement communities, and some very high end condos in BC could be had. Or they could spend just as much buying an average condo in the Landing or some over priced Saskatoon river front condo, all nearing half a million.
Might be a great time for young 30 something engineers or accountants to sell a Saskatoon house or condo if they bought pre-boom and buy something nice in downtown Calgary, as for the right trades, and right people, there are always jobs here, and they pay better. The reason I moved to Alberta last year. Still hurts to go, but have a beautiful house in Red Deer, beyond what I could afford in Saskatoon last year. Always jobs for health care anywhere, even with so called “hiring freezes”. Might as well leave Saskatoon and move to somewhere warmer, higher paying, cheaper housing and safer.
July 25th, 2010 at 10:51 AM
Nick,
You’re repeating yourself again. One concise comment about the rampant crime in Saskatoon should be sufficient.
You seem to be a bit confused about the nature of this site. I don’t consider myself to be “covering” the news. I want to be talking about things that directly impact the real estate market. Crime is often a concern for people when they’re deciding which neighbourhood to settle in but it’s not a driving force in the real estate market as a whole. If we can ever find a good source for neighbourhood crime data we will surely include those stats on our neighbourhood pages. Until then, a simple Google search delivers all of the crime news that those considering Saskatoon need for a clear picture of what they’re getting into.
Oh, by the way Nick, you seem to have overlooked the fact that incidents of crime actually dropped in this area again. I’m not absolutely sure but I’m led to believe that incidents fell six percent from the previous year to post the sixth consecutive year-over-year decline.
July 25th, 2010 at 11:18 AM
Hi Rob,
Thanks for the comment.
“The number of houses plus condos for sale per the MLS is just a fraction of what is available for sale and what is vacant in Saskatoon.”
That’s true, but I expect it’s a pretty large fraction. Don’t forget, there are also sales that occur which will not be included in the MLS sales figures. While the MLS database doesn’t present a complete picture it’s our best source for tracking changes and trends. There is no source that tracks “all” properties that are for sale but saskhouses.com likely reflects a large slice of the private market. On top of MLS and the private market there are new home builders (and condo developers) that also carry some inventory.
Looking back to 2008, we had nearly 1800 MLS listings at the peak. At that time there were more than 700 homes advertised privately on saskhouses. Builders had dozens and dozens of spec homes. Today, there are 1368 active MLS listings, 314 private offerings on saskhouses and a fairly limited supply of new homes built on spec. I think there continues to be a massive supply of condos over $350K but there aren’t many new one’s sitting empty in the bread and butter price ranges. It will be interesting if the holders of these upper end units eventually decide to substantially lower prices to move them. I understand that is happening further west. Given the sluggish sales on these units, it seems to me that the practical way to clear this inventory is fairly obvious.
July 25th, 2010 at 11:28 AM
I would also like to point out that Saskatoon is home to the only “super” Walmart in the province.
July 25th, 2010 at 11:59 AM
Norm,
Shouldn’t that read as “Saskatoon, the largest city in Saskatchewan”, is home to the only “Super” Wal Mart? Not that I want to burst anyones bubble but a Wal Mart supercenter was opened in Regina this past February.
Bookrat, we do have a few barbers here but when it’s a Saturday morning in July and there’s 100% certainty of sunny skies….and you have motorcycle sitting there on the street….well, if you’ve ever had a motorcycle in the past, you know there is no choice but to jump on and hit the highway.
July 25th, 2010 at 2:21 PM
Norm, crime may have fallen here, but Regina and Saskatoon are still the top 2 (worst 2?) for crime severity and pretty much every measure of serious/dangerous/violent etc. crime out there in Canada.
You cover lots of news stories, I would think the annual crime data from Stats Canada would be reasonable to post if you are covering major local news stories.
“Crime is often a concern for people when they’re deciding which neighbourhood to settle in but it’s not a driving force in the real estate market as a whole.”
I am surprised by that comment. Obviously jobs and affordability are huge, but I would think so is crime. I have heard many people from Ontario say they wouldn’t consider a move here because of the danger thing. And those annual Macleans articles pointing out how “dangerous” Regina and Saskatoon are have to be bad for attracting new comers. You would think Saskatoon being “The Most Dangerous City in Canada” would detour new people from coming? Anyway, guess hard to put a number on how many (if any) people based decision on moving, or not, to Saskatoon based on crime?
July 25th, 2010 at 2:41 PM
westcanguy,
Crap!
Nick,
Perhaps I’m wrong and crime is a balancing factor that has kept prices lower than they would have been if this were a safe community to live in.