Crap!

Nick,

Perhaps I’m wrong and crime is a balancing factor that has kept prices lower than they would have been if this were a safe community to live in.

You cover lots of news stories, I would think the annual crime data from Stats Canada would be reasonable to post if you are covering major local news stories.

“Crime is often a concern for people when they’re deciding which neighbourhood to settle in but it’s not a driving force in the real estate market as a whole.”

I am surprised by that comment. Obviously jobs and affordability are huge, but I would think so is crime. I have heard many people from Ontario say they wouldn’t consider a move here because of the danger thing. And those annual Macleans articles pointing out how “dangerous” Regina and Saskatoon are have to be bad for attracting new comers. You would think Saskatoon being “The Most Dangerous City in Canada” would detour new people from coming? Anyway, guess hard to put a number on how many (if any) people based decision on moving, or not, to Saskatoon based on crime?

Shouldn’t that read as “Saskatoon, the largest city in Saskatchewan”, is home to the only “Super” Wal Mart? Not that I want to burst anyones bubble but a Wal Mart supercenter was opened in Regina this past February.

Bookrat, we do have a few barbers here but when it’s a Saturday morning in July and there’s 100% certainty of sunny skies….and you have motorcycle sitting there on the street….well, if you’ve ever had a motorcycle in the past, you know there is no choice but to jump on and hit the highway.

Thanks for the comment.

“The number of houses plus condos for sale per the MLS is just a fraction of what is available for sale and what is vacant in Saskatoon.”

That’s true, but I expect it’s a pretty large fraction. Don’t forget, there are also sales that occur which will not be included in the MLS sales figures. While the MLS database doesn’t present a complete picture it’s our best source for tracking changes and trends. There is no source that tracks “all” properties that are for sale but saskhouses.com likely reflects a large slice of the private market. On top of MLS and the private market there are new home builders (and condo developers) that also carry some inventory.

Looking back to 2008, we had nearly 1800 MLS listings at the peak. At that time there were more than 700 homes advertised privately on saskhouses. Builders had dozens and dozens of spec homes. Today, there are 1368 active MLS listings, 314 private offerings on saskhouses and a fairly limited supply of new homes built on spec. I think there continues to be a massive supply of condos over $350K but there aren’t many new one’s sitting empty in the bread and butter price ranges. It will be interesting if the holders of these upper end units eventually decide to substantially lower prices to move them. I understand that is happening further west. Given the sluggish sales on these units, it seems to me that the practical way to clear this inventory is fairly obvious.

You’re repeating yourself again. One concise comment about the rampant crime in Saskatoon should be sufficient.

You seem to be a bit confused about the nature of this site. I don’t consider myself to be “covering” the news. I want to be talking about things that directly impact the real estate market. Crime is often a concern for people when they’re deciding which neighbourhood to settle in but it’s not a driving force in the real estate market as a whole. If we can ever find a good source for neighbourhood crime data we will surely include those stats on our neighbourhood pages. Until then, a simple Google search delivers all of the crime news that those considering Saskatoon need for a clear picture of what they’re getting into.

Oh, by the way Nick, you seem to have overlooked the fact that incidents of crime actually dropped in this area again. I’m not absolutely sure but I’m led to believe that incidents fell six percent from the previous year to post the sixth consecutive year-over-year decline.

Might be a great time for young 30 something engineers or accountants to sell a Saskatoon house or condo if they bought pre-boom and buy something nice in downtown Calgary, as for the right trades, and right people, there are always jobs here, and they pay better. The reason I moved to Alberta last year. Still hurts to go, but have a beautiful house in Red Deer, beyond what I could afford in Saskatoon last year. Always jobs for health care anywhere, even with so called “hiring freezes”. Might as well leave Saskatoon and move to somewhere warmer, higher paying, cheaper housing and safer.

How long can overpriced labour costs keep the cost of new builds at up $250 to $350 an above foundation square foot?

Looking at some new condo developments that have been 1/3 vacant for almost two years (Eagle’s Nest) This was 2/3 vacant last summer and never seems reflected since not one MLS listing???. Are our students really going to be able to put up that much money at the paltry wages that Saskatoon offers? Or is it just me that is paid a fraction of what Alberta or Ontario pay. Surely, is someone four years down the road going to pay an extra $75k for the same condo in town or $150k extra for a $500k house that is that much closer to needing a new roof, water heater, furnace, kitchen, etc.

Flabbergasted by Saskatoon poverty (but house rich)

Good comments. You seem to have inside information about the oil industry.

Sorry to bore you, but it is important to make a stand and to think.

Good luck at Best Buy. You should leave at about 0600.

Perhaps a little common sense? We’ve finished 2 quarters and now halfway into the third Q. Crops this year will be weak. Oil and Gas has been stagnant and although the oilpatch is hiring for this fall, the crews will be half the size and companies are hiring experienced, responsible ticketed people only. Think potash sales will rebound enough to make a difference? I don’t see how. China and India aren’t the power houses we thought they were. They aren’t exporting nearly as much because EVERYONE ELSE IS BROKE!!!….lol
So, will 2010 be a banner year? No. Will 2011 rebound and show some growth? No. Look around you…outside of the province and what do you see? Do you see growth and opportunity? Why do you think it will be different here? Has anyone ever considered that a commodities based province might be a straggler in getting hit with the effects of a world wide recession?
We’ve lived and depended far too much on credit. Those with all the money are now thinking….”what a minute……I don’t like where this is going”. Those who bought homes the last couple of years with no money down and 35+ amort’s at rates I had never saw the first 48 years of my life and likely never will again…will the be the first to feel the pinch when rates move even higher and values have sunk.
Norm will still be kicking @ss and selling homes because let’s face it, “There’s a rear end for every seat”

Anyways, I can’t wait to jump on my motorcycle Saturday morning and ride up to Saskatoon and spend some of my hard earned money in your fair city.** Whats with the big deal about opening a Best Buy in Saskatoon??? Read the Star Phoenix this morning about this store opening in Saskatchewans largest city….Wow, now that’s news!

“I still think there will be short-term price drops and medium-term price stagnation”

http://www.teamfisher.com/just-how-vulnerable-is-canadian-real-estate/

I apparently posted about a hundred times in that thread, so there should be plenty of faulty logic for you to attack

I have read several of your posts.

They do not imply neutrality.

But I will not spend the time to refute every one.

When did you predict falling prices? 2008?

I love debating abstract concepts and minutiae as much as anyone. I really do. But I doubt anyone else wants us clogging up this site with the discussion. If you want to continue the theoretical discussion, point me towards a forum where it’s more appropriate and I will meet you there.

“So who really is advancing an agenda?”

What agenda would that be? I’d think it would be necessary to have the slightest idea of what a person believes before accusing them of having an agenda, much less advancing one.

I have posted many times on this site over several years regarding Saskatchewan’s economic future and housing prices. To my recollection, every single time I have made a prediction about future housing prices, I have predicted falling prices in real terms. This would be odd if, as you imply, I am advancing some sort of (presumably unjustifiably positive) agenda.

You say: “…including the rest of the information would seem fair.”

If you are intending that the left out ‘information’ is nothing but an aggregation of symbols understandable by an english speaking person, then I don’t see how it is unfair to exclude this ‘information’.

If, though, you are using the term ‘information’ as it is commonly understood, as an influence upon the creation of ideas, then you are implying that the 2011 numbers are actually an influence upon the ideas of the populace. So the economic prediction is information of this type in your argument. Therefore it was not a strawman argument for JR to conclude that you were saying: “So lawtalking, this year is off, again, but we should be optimistic(ideas) because after a bad year next years growth will look even better?”

By using the word ‘fair’ you were definitely implying that the figure for 2011 could be accurate. You reinforce this by prefacing this comment by saying: “but since we’re including the gloomy predictions”. Obviously you interpreted the 2010 prediction as information.

Further you say: “Now, predictions aren’t exactly cash in the bank”. So then they might be? This is exactly not neutral symbolic musings.

Then you say that the 2011 prediction is a part of: “full and complete information”.

There is no strawman argument by JR. He understood exactly what you tried to convey. His head must of been spinning from your comments.

He was commenting on actual information. A prediction based on less than two quarters with half the summer gone etc. Something real that we know. A 2011 prediction is no more information than is the Farmer’s Almanac. ( sorry farmers).
Something like astrology.

So who really is advancing an agenda?

No, I didn’t. What I DID say is reproduced in full, below. You’ll notice that in no way did I suggest that the 3.8% number was accurate (I’m not an economist, and would have no way of knowing). I did not imply in any way that things will be better than they are now. In fact I made no predictions or evaluations whatsoever about Saskatchewan’s economic prospects.

What I did do was mention a key piece of the report that was intentionally left out of JR’s post, and state my opinion that cherry-picking pieces that support’s one’s argument while ignoring another (very significant) part of that same report is not a respectable arguing tactic.

I even went out of my way to note that predictions are of questionable value.This doesn’t mean someone can seize upon a 2010 prediction (since it supports the point they wanted to be true anyway) and ignore the corresponding 2011 prediction. Someone who does so is, in my opinion, advancing an agenda rather than being interested in legitimate discussion. Personally, I like legitimate discussion.

My previous comment:
“JR: The report you mentioned also predicted that Saskatchewan would lead the country in growth in 2011 with a 3.8% increase in real GDP.

Now, predictions aren’t exactly cash in the bank, but since we’re including the gloomy predictions, including the rest of the information would seem fair.”

“Can you think of any problem in any area of human endeavor on any scale, from microscopic to global, whose long-term solution is in any demonstrable way aided, assisted, or advanced by further increases in population, locally, nationally, or globally?”

Maybe the economic advancement of a few? Is that a problem?

Another quote:

“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.”

This is where the rule of 70 comes.

Among census metropolitan areas (CMAs), police-reported crime severity was highest in the western centres of Regina, Saskatoon and Winnipeg. Calgary was the only western CMA below the national average.”

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/100720/dq100720a-eng.htm

The Statistics Canada numbers for 2009 are now final, and as usual, some disturbing stats for Saskatchewan – Worst in Total Crime Severity Index of any province and Saskatoon – second worst in Total Crime Severity Index, behind Regina (yikes) for any large city – above 100,000.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/100720/t100720a2-eng.htm
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/100720/t100720a3-eng.htm

Again, not to slander Saskatoon, but if we are going to cover jobs and the economy as a reason to move to Saskatoon, then we should at least make mention of consistently leading, or being among the worst in Canada, in Total Crime, Violent Crime and Assaults. This information seems something which is reasonable for any potential newcomers to know. They may decide a job prospect in Saskatoon is worth it. They may not. But this is a pretty big news story – one I think you should almost dedicate a news tab to.

Fear had never helped anyone!! If something drastic happens everyone is F*C#ED!! So everyone please enjoy what Saskatchewan has to offer and if you feel that GDP and such is an important part of your happiness in Saskatchewan I feel sorry for you…