Technically, George, you’re right. I think we also have to focus on how and why the YOY number is negative (hugely less expensive energy costs, among other things). In this post, economist Nick Rowe makes an interesting argument why we should be focusing on the core CPI numbers, and why the risks of deflation may actually be easing:

http://tinyurl.com/mnlo6q

Take a look at January’s core CPI- that was nasty. The core CPI has improved since then. How things will look from here on in- anyone’s guess.

Bank of Canada expected to keep its rate promise
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=1801255
(looks like interest rates will remain at current levels until at least the end of 2009…)

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1226-CNBC-You-Owe-America-An-Apology.html

(I haven’t validated Denninger’s reporting myself, but I have yet to find anything where he is factually incorrect when I have done so, and as such I’m inclined to take Karl’s word for it.)

Are they ever (Am I ever!)! It’s strange to see several uber-bears softening their stances, such as Nouriel Roubini and Meredith Whitney. Admittedly, they’re not saying it’s all good, but that a recovery, however anemic, may be on the horizon.

Meanwhile… Canada has registered its first technical deflation in 15 years, and…

http://tinyurl.com/kncqxo

Forty-six jobs at Viterra Inc. in Regina will be eliminated and moved to a company based in Bangalore, India. “This outsourcing announcement means job losses for our city and our province and it takes these valuable knowledge-based jobs out of our economy,” Wagner said in a news release. The laid-off workers earned between $49,000 and $100,000 per year, Wagner said.

http://tinyurl.com/ll5z8w

TD Economics has cut its 2009 economic forecast for Saskatchewan based on a less bullish outlook on potash, agriculture and, to some extent, oil.TD is now estimating a one per cent drop in gross domestic product (GDP) this year, down from the March forecast of a 0.4 per cent increase.

Saskatoon booster- I admire your enthusiasm.

L.oki, if I had to hazard a guess, I’d say that recent market activity has surprised a lot of bulls as well. The market seems fairly unpredictable to gauge at the moment: sales are increasing (particularly those over $400k+) while at the same time prices continue to see year-over-year declines (despite a steady decrease in inventory). Economic news is hit and miss, depending on what and where you read. In this kind of environment, it’s really hard to comment (let alone ponder) on where things may be headed in the short-term. I think the only thing that people generally agree on is an interest rate increase at some point, and even that’s open to a wide degree of speculation.

Crikey, wow. $20 oil. When I read things like that and news on potash prices almost falling in half the first words that come to mind are “tax increase”. Speaking of tax increases, I heard that some business were hit with three to four-fold increases on their property taxes, but I haven’t been able to find any links with more details.

Norm,
“Today, everyone seems a bit uncertain.”
I would have to agree. Everything we read in the national news shows the economy all over the place. Confidence is quite good here even though there have been some layoffs and some things postponed. Some co-workers have mentioned housing is a good investment especially since prices have come down and the low interest rates. Others have been “burnt” by buying at the peak with higher interest rates.

If everybody had a crystal ball, everybody would be rich.

“Say, what’s happening with River Landing?”

You turned something up a few weeks ago and suggested that they’d been given until August 17(?) to pay for the land. I understand that to be correct. Clock is ticking on another deadline. In addition to billboards they’ve been spending some money on the radio and in print.

L.oki,

“Norm I think there is a direct correlation between how well the market is doing and the number of posts on your blog.”

I thought it might be the time of year but there were plenty of comments last July, but back then everyone thought they knew what was going to happen. Today, everyone seems a but uncertain.

George, did you see Mish’s take on Ms. King’s economic projections?

Another interesting projection from a University of Calgary prof: Verleger Sees $20 Oil This Year on ‘Devastating’ Glut

It is quiet in here these days. Norm I think there is a direct correlation between how well the market is doing and the number of posts on your blog.

“Again, this is not to say that Saskatoon isn’t doing well, or that Saskatchewan isn’t doing well compared to the rest of Canada … ” Tiresome isn’t it? Putting disclaimers on your posts so you’re not labelled an “SK hater”. ;’)

The Economy Is Even Worse Than You Think
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124753066246235811.html

“The Bureau of Labor Statistics preliminary estimate for job losses for June is 467,00… June’s total assumed 185,000 people at work who probably were not. The government could not identify them; it made an assumption about trends. But many of the mythical jobs are in industries that have absolutely no job creation, e.g., finance. When the official numbers are adjusted over the next several months, June will look worse.”

Say, what’s happening with River Landing? I see a few new billboards up around the city, but the SP has been fairly quiet on the subject… and I haven’t been able to ascertain if City Hall extended the timetable for them.

This is completely OT… a Venn diagram of current social media, courtesy of TBP.

http://tinyurl.com/mnzuue

I’m not sure that’s technically true, but I get your gist. I think “effectively the same result as ARMs” would be more accurate. I don’t believe lending to non-credit-worthy borrowers was/is anyhere near as much of an issue as in the US- I suppose how you define “sub-prime” would matter to that argument.

Interesting developments with the price of potash, hmm? Could be painful for the provincial coffers as well as those employment rates.

Housing rebound ‘nothing short of amazing’
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1789598

And for those who’ve been beating the Potash drum…

Potash price drop watched by gov’t; India deal a new low; could affect Sask. sales
http://www.thestarphoenix.com/Potash+price+drop+watched/1791725/story.html

Once other factors are under control, or until the market simply can’t sustain the low interest rates any longer, rates will rise and we will finally get the price correction we desperately need to get back to fundamentals.

I’m with Bookrat on not trying to predict the bottom any longer. If there is one thing I’ve learned from following the markets for the past few years, it is that they do not follow fundamental indicators anymore (maybe they never did), but instead are driven by political forces and interventionist actions. Stimulus spending, in my humble opinion, is nothing more than a payment to delay the inevitable. As much as I do not like the man, I think Stephen Harper is well aware of that fact – last I heard he’s refusing to spend more on “stimulus”. It is too bad I cannot say the same for our brothers and sisters to the south.