Apples and oranges, no matter how much granite there is in the kitchen.

Wesco’s point still stands, though: Edmonton should be a good bit higher than Saskatoon.

I could be wrong but the Edmonton Condo is 200 ft smaller than the Saskatoon condo?

I see the average condo price in Edmonton is hovering around the 260k for about the last year.

Edmonton has about 3500 condos on the market right now. They average about 400 sales a month. I could see their prices coming down.

I think Saskatoon is at 250k for condos about 400 supply, is that about correct Norm?

I do see condos coming down with more supply on the market. To me, condos are just a shoebox in a bigger box. The apartment conversions, I mean.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but there’s little that can be done to turn a ground floor wood-frame apartment into a 6th floor masonry construction apartment. The view alone is worth 50-75K to the right buyer.

All that said, I agree that your second example is much closer to being comparable, and is probably better than the Saskatoon unit given the fact that it’s nearly ten years newer. Assuming that one gets as good a view as you would with from the 6th floor of the Saskatoon apartment, it appears to be better value overall.

Jim,

There’s one listed there now for $695,000 which is down from $799,000. The highest sale price on record for that building is is $565,000, earlier this year, for what appears to be the same floor plan. Al I can say is “good luck!” They may need to get more “realistic” if they want to get it sold.

In fairness though, I’d love to live in that building. I think it’s exceptionally well done and if you get on the right side of the building you can see down the river in both directions. Sadly though, $695K is a touch on the high side for me.

Norm, there was a place listed in the Radisson’s other half for $899,000 in Feb or March!!! Not sure if it sold, and now a very similar looking place is $699,000, likely same one for a lot less. Guess I can’t fault them for testing the waters, before getting a bit more realistic.

There are a lot of $299,000 ish condos downtown, 1000 to 1100 sq ft. Some with parking extra! So I’d definitely say Saskatoon’s down town condos are overpriced! Guess partially because Edmonton has a much better supply of newish condos and condos in general. Still, a bit of a reason to suggest Saskatoon condos are way over priced. Edmonton has a nice river view from near University or Down town too!

Another Edmonton Condo

Edmonton

Saskatoon

I think they are very comparable in all aspects, except the one in edmonton is right on Jasper ave and is 150k cheaper

The average selling price of a 970′ condo in the Hallmark over the last quarter is $245,560 and there hasn’t been a single unit sold above $290,000. The average selling price of a downtown condo over the past quarter is $273,733. There have only been three sales recorded above the $300,000 mark, all luxury type condos from 1,350 to 1,750 square feet.

Total active residential listings closed at 1385 this week, so I was off in my earlier guess of 1360.

Thanks for doing this. Looks about right to me.

Sales in May were off 37% from May of 2007 and about 12% from April 2008.

Doug,

I agree that sale prices are not rising, but so far, there’s no good evidence that they’re falling. No question that the fat is being trimmed off of the list prices in a pretty big way though. Too much reduction activity to believe otherwise. There have been just over 300 price changes recorded in June (a handful of those were increases but mostly decreases) and 189 cancellations. I’m thinking most of those found their way back on the system as new listings at lower prices.

We have a minimum of 4 months inventory.

Even if some week sales finally outnumber new listings, the inventory has grown a lot the last couple months. A lot of places are being reduced. And it seems to be at least an old wives tale that spring is peak sales season. So really inventory should fall this time of year. That it is actually growing, means that we’re in for a big rise in inventory when sales dip later this year.

Any supposed “increase” in prices can be accounted for by a decrease in condo sales. Reductions and throwing in furniture seems to be common now. How can a market that is reducing list price in the face of surplus inventory be increasing in sales price?

Okay, this does change the numbers, but as before, this is rough and is a mere snapshot in time. As numbers of residential listings differed (1360 vs. 1445), I’m taking a lesson in SWAG methodology and choosing 1400 active res listings.

If you’re wondering why I’m doing this, it because I’m a complete masochist.

Not including FSBO:

May YOY: 3.95 months of inventory

Last 3 months where data is available (Mar, Apr, May): 3.57 months of inventory

Assuming about 300 FSBO properties: Saskhouses are listing 354, but some are likely duplicates, etc.

May YOY: 4.8 months of inventory

Last 3 months where data is available (Mar, Apr, May): 4.34 months of inventory

What really struck me from the data Norm provided is May 2008 sales are down 37% from April- is this right?

Please feel free to rip this apart or ignore at your leisure…

I see what’s going on. You’re looking at “total MLS sales” which includes all types of real estate including commercial.

The residential numbers are different. Find those by clicking the “Total MLS Res Statistics” link on the same page, or, I have them separated from the other stats here. http://www.teamfisher.com/MLS__Stats/page_1723681.html

I think these numbers will produce a far different number. Your average monthly unit sales should actually be 392. I’m sorry I didn’t catch that sooner.

Armoth,

Get to bed early, hey?

I was so tired today I read both your posts which are the same and it didnt click till now I read the same thing twice =’(

I got the stats from here:

http://www.sreb.com/Srarstats.php3

538 sales is the average of the 3 months of March, April, and May 2008. This average in itself is misleading, since the “total” sales for April are 574 and the “total” sales for May is 502, which is quite a drop.

Anyway, the May 2007 to May 2008 YOY unit sale averages is 479, which is actually quite a bit closer to May’s average.

Do you have different numbers for monthly unit sales?

So what are you using for unit sale numbers? 538 a month is higher than last year and I think it’s fair to say we can expect unit sales to be off from last year.

Including fsbo numbers will be nearly impossible. You’ve pointed out the primary weakness, but there are others. Many units are advertised on saskhouses but are also listed mls. Some will show as sold on both venues. There’s no way to accurately track sales of fsbos. Better to conclude x number of months of inventory on MLS, plus everything fsbo.

George and Jim,

The graphic included in the “week in review” post is always houses and condos only. The text usually includes some discussion on “total residential units” which would include all of the other stuff. The total listing numbers which are oft repeated here include everything in the residential categories.

I’d like to include the FSBO numbers, but the ones NOT listed on SaskHouses are the tricky ones. Maybe I’ll see what the numbers look like with and without.

In any case, there’s no denying inventory is at an all time high. By Fall we should have a far more accurate picture of where things are heading, but there’s no getting away from that “supply and demand” thing.

There will be more listings than sales this summer but I am curious to what will happen to the ones that are spec homes and do not sell. If prices drop a bit by the fall will they rent these out for the winter hoping prices bounce up next spring? Or will they relist for a reduced price?

A lot of these spec home sellers will list their own residence as well hoping to sell one property which will inflate listings a bit. So 1 sale will take out 2 listings, this will only be a few though.

I foresee some of these spec homes becoming rentals. I have followed Edmonton and Calgary almost more than Saskatoon and what has happened there eventually comes here. If one has enough time just look at kijji and other classifieds in Calgary for new home rentals. There are tonnes. Most of these homes were for sale at one time. But prices dropped and they could not sell so now they are landlords.

I agree we are in a buyers market right now. The average of 538 is from sreb which is higher than what Norm reports because Norm just reports condos and houses. No duplexs, mobile or semi detached are reported on Norms reports. I would expect an average of about 500 sales the next 3 months on sreb. I think this is realistic.

Crikey,

On saskhouses the last 20 days are 40 sales of Saskatoon properties with 353 listings as of today. There are almost 6 months of Saskatoon inventory.

I’d call that a buyers’ market, with a minimum of 3 months supply on the market and growing. Inventory that just keeps climbing and months to sell a property, in what is typically one of the hottest times to sell.

If during peak sales time, new listings still out number sales, just imagine what will happen once we get into the dog days of summer?

And 538 sales per month? Maybe in the past, the past few weeks sales haven’t even cracked 100 per week. 400 sales per month means listings are closing in on a 4 month supply!