I am so glad you figured out I was referring to you too……. I was a little worried

Glad to have you onboard! ;’)

Lol! Yes I’ll jump on the slow down bandwagon. I’m fully aware that increases of this magnitude can’t continue forever. As I stated last summer, I just call it like I see it (regardless of my position) and right now I’m seeing the final tardy people to the party through June. After that our over extended market will take a much needed break.

Johny,

Another Lol! Good to hear you’re in. I do believe that Guy is working hard but man… talk about undelivered promises and lack of informative news. I originally bought “Ple” at the beginning of 06′ for around where it’s at now and sold later for .90 a share. Then I bought back in beginning of 07′ starting at .57 and have watched it go south for over a year now. I’ve kept adding the further it’s dropped and now I’m sitting at around a .34 average. If more “delays” happen I’m out but I’m thinking this could be the time. I’m also a big fan of Yamana (YRI) as a mid cap.

Something,

Thanks for the heads up on NGG. I will do my DD on it. I’ll let you know if I come across any “must owns”

On a side note, I bought “ARU” around the same time I bought ple back in 06′. I made good money on it as I sold at $4.00 a share so I can’t complain too much. However, I then watched it go to $40.00 within another 3 months.

Based on sales reported firm in March, I’ll say 370 units at an average of $286,000. I think that will be close.

Sales written in March: 335 units at $291,000.

Using either method, unit sales will be down 10-15% from the same month last year and the average sale price will be up 45%+.

Surely it can’t take two full weeks to “fiddle with the numbers?”

SRAR launched a completely new MLS system last month so there have been some challenges with it. To make matters worse, they learned afterwards that the system is not set up to crunch the numbers the way that they’ve been done here for years. They are working on delivering some programming that will do that. SRAR reports on units reported sold during the calender month.

I will soon be doing my monthly review which crunches the numbers based on the contract date. I have to wait a couple of weeks to ensure that the majority of the sales done in March are reported before I pull mine.

Well my opinion wasn’t solicited here but regardless let me give you my 2 cents as far as stock picks. Gold juniors, in general, seem to be more fairly valued and haven’t seen the huge increases proportional to the gold price and the majors.

I particularly like NGG.v, or new guinea gold, trades on the venture. As you can guess, they own a number of mining projects in new guinea. What I like about them is they already have one mine that just entered production and the market seems to value the company based on that mine alone. It’s an open pit operation which, together with the low cost of labor, leads to cheap costs and they should generate a reasonable PE ratio (comparable to other juniors) based purely on that mine. They are expecting to produce 35000 oz a year from the mine, with costs of $120/oz (I know it sounds unreasonably low but even if you double or triple that figure the numbers are OK) and a fully diluted market cap of $100 million. As far as I know they don’t have any hedges. I think you are basically paying for the current mine and the 7 or 8 other mines under exploration are just gravy.

On top of that you have large previous mine finds in the region and a relatively stable political environment.

Check into it and double check EVERYTHING I just said of course. It’s one that I have skin in but to be honest I only know what I’ve been able to dig up on the internet. If you know of any other good quality, cheap and politically stable junior golds, please let me know.

By the time they get around to March stats, we will be in May.

I have predicted a slow down this summer since last fall. Are you sure you want to join the club? “EVERYONE” is still saying things are going to heat up! :’)

I indirectly know one guy who’s renovating a few houses in Saskatoon and Regina hoping to flip them in the early fall. It seems pretty late in the game…

J.

I spoke with Harry Janzen at SRAR yesterday and he told me they’re getting close on the stats.

Are those monthly stats slow this month

Fantastic post!! I couldn’t agree anymore.

Nice catch on “HTC”. The venture is undervalued but that’s as manipulated a market as there is. So many times a venture company does a PP to raise money, then the institutions come in right after and drive the price down. Long term gold and silver are going to make a lot of people money. I do think there will be some more buying opportunities for gold and silver over the next year. Then all bets are off.

The U.S. market will seem to recover over the next year as it is an election year and we all know that certain people need votes. (among other behind the scenes stuff). Look for the start of a complete collapse of the U.S. around this time next year which of course will deal a big blow to Canada. The international bankers need this to happen to further their agenda of a one world government.

For those who don’t know, the “North American Union Act” has already been signed to create a borderless super union between Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. A brand new currency will be introduced much like the Euro, and the best way to put it in place is to collapse the economies so that the people will be begging for it.

Check out a company called Plexmar Resources “PLE.V” It’s very high risk right now but it has the potential to be a monster (Like 3000% on your money type of monster). They have a huge property that’s full of gold in Northern Peru. There’s literally millions of ounces of gold on their property. Some samples taken have returned well over 100g/ton of gold.

That’s the good news. Here’s the bad

For the past year and a half they’ve been trying to get approval from the locals to drill. They need this approval to go forward. Northern Peru is apparently very unstable and many mining companies have been shot down by the locals because of their aggressive tactics. Plexmar has been patiently waiting and recently recieved an invitation to present to the local community which takes place this month. Word has it the the locals are very intrested in working with Plexmar.

Some other negatives are that the President and other board members are Geologists and not buisness men. They have stated things in the past and haven’t delivered. The stock is also quite dilluted as it’s currently a .20 stock with 135 million shares.

In conclusion, it’s very high risk but if it hits it’s very high reward.

A second stock I just recieved word on is KCL.V (a potash company here in Saskatchewan). I haven’t done any DD on it yet but I hear good things.

If I could short the Saskatoon real estate market I would in a couple of months. For all those who accused me of pumping just to enhance my portfolio, I’m now calling for a downtrend to start come June / July. All this while still having a full portfolio of Sask houses. In fact, I’m only selling 1 property in the next month or so because it doesn’t cash flow and I don’t want to get caught holding it in a downtrend.

While not “all” of it is media driven, there is certainly a LOT of pressure, just like both of you mentioned. It is absurd that first time buyers are made to believe if one doesn’t get in now they’re S.O.L.! As long as a person is doing their best to save I think it’s much better to wait until the craziness of this market has subsided, rather than feeling pressured.

I haven’t had the time to look into that Station 20 West project to know why the government rejected it. It SOUNDED like a good thing, but I don’t have all the facts. All I know is some places on the westside could use a LOT of help!

For investment, I would definitely stick with the TSX and look for stocks in oil and gas, (Suncor has been a strong performer for a while and once this new 20 billion dollar project is completed is 5-7 years their stock will sky rocket again)and look for stocks in Construction Companies, Aecon was the best performing stock on the TSX last year and their a solid construction company centered on Infrastructure and heavy industrial, both industries that aren’t going to feel any pinch if there is a slight recession.

I tried to argue the inflation issue and potential for meltdown early on but there’s simply too much momentum to push against. Alex, Heather D., honestly my opinion is that what’s going on is a problem. I think that Saskatchewan is being taken advantage of by outside investment. I’m afraid that our government is selling off the province that once remained defiant against foreign ownership. I firmly believe that city council is sitting on their hands while Saskatoon remains the most exploited real estate market in the country. And I have a sick feeling that we’re setting ourselves up to reminisce, for the next decade, on these years the way our parents did of the 1980′s.

One thing I’ve learned from Northstar and others in discussion about the issue however is that when a market like this takes off, no matter how nonsensical, you can’t fight the media machine. Think of the Station 20 West project being branded as a “government funded shopping mall” which is so far from the case it’s sickening but all it takes is a few catchy one-liners and the ball is rolling. We live in a media-infested environment where rational argument doesn’t really matter and sexy one liners sell.

You can take comfort in the fact that this won’t last. But you and others looking to buy into the market need to be rational, patient, and make your own decision. So many have an opinion of the way things are headed but you need to form your own based on common sense and your own financial situation. If your conclusion is to move like Alex, then that’s what you have to do… the same way people who moved here from Calgary did. Just figure out what you can afford. Keep saving. Don’t try to keep up with any jonses. Create a budget. Don’t get suckered into no money down, high interest, mortgages. Expect mortgage rates to increase by 2-3% in the next 5 years and build that into your budget. If you’re responsible with your money, stick tight to your budget, and realistic, there will always be an opportunity to buy a house and if you’ve filled the aforementioned criteria and still can’t afford a house, then take comfort in the fact that there will be a correction. But obviously we’re not there yet if there’s this kind of demand remaining (no matter how misguided).

I realize it may seem hypocritical for me to say this given all I’ve said about the market but honestly I’m trying to offer realistic impartial advice in such a crazy market for those who seem so frustrated. I’m lucky as well in owning a home and not being directly affected by what’s going on (although I am extremely aware). There’s a bigger picture to what’s going on past not being able to afford a house however.

We need to keep a close eye on how our government is treating our assets and revitalize the concept of resource sovereignty as well how our government is treating those who can’t afford to live anywhere let-alone their own house. Heath education, health services, job training, social programs, etc to revitalize those parts of the city that give us runner-up status on Maclean’s “Top 10 High Crime Cities”. And the biggest issue of all being the fact that Saskatoon’s children are not being protected from what’s going on in our westside.

I don’t think that getting personal on this forum will help any of these issues get solved.

Northstar,

I rarely keep much of an eye on the Dow as I think it’s a diluted and highly manipulated forum. I’ve been watching the TSX like a hawk though. I think once we move past 14000, we’ll start to see some confidence back in. I’d moved all of my money into commodities, half on the TSX and half on the Venture as I feel that the Venture is undervalued and the TSX is less volatile. I took my money out of tech and out of financials, I’ve lost faith in both. I made a good play with HTC.V (carbon capture) when I caught wind of the federal budget’s inclusion of the $250M for carbon capture technology (even though I’m sickened at the fact that it was our tradeup for dropping equalization… thank you Mr. Wall). Heavy on Uranium recently too, it’s extremely undervalued. Gold and Silver too (under your advice). What are your thoughts?

J.

If lies make you feel better, fine. I won’t respond to them.

Norm,

I saw that illustration a while back, it’s pretty funny and rings true!

Alex,

It’s interesting, when I disagree with someone’s views they come back at me with unfounded accusations. ie. I think everyone that owns real estate is greedy, I don’t want anyone to have property in Saskatoon if I don’t, I want the market to crash and people to suffer. Maybe it’s because they can’t find enough dirt in the posts I write? If I began generalizing people’s posts on here I would be shutdown in no time flat!

Real estate stuff to please Northstar and Wesco,

I can’t wait for this week’s stats! It seems like a tonne of new inventory has come up.

You can’t compromise in this circumstance. The goals are exactly opposite.

“You yourself have done this on many occasions.”

“You’ve called me many things of which none fits my character at all.”

I totally disagree. Don’t lump me into that just because you’re taking a bird’s eye perspective.

I haven’t been insulting, I haven’t been doing any mudslinging. That you may feel somehow hurt over my mentions of greed matters not. The point stands without contest and it is a real issue rather than a misdirection.

You can’t absolve others by assuming everyone is at fault. Truthfully, the “right” – sorry for the distinction – is very much on the warpath here.

What else would inflame people such? Obviously it’s their cash cow they are trying to protect in all the lashing out. We have a thread 100+ entires long here to prove that. Go, follow the yarn back to the spool and you’ll see pretty clearly what I defined already:

“It’s like they can completely disown their actions and remarks, derail the conversation and then suddenly force others to take the blame for it.”

You fall for it every time!

For what I really have said: If calling a spade a spade means identifying damaging investment in our economy – so be it. At least I’m observing more than a tiresome and academic desire to never come to a conclusion.

This compromise culture and trend of acceptance has got to yield in favor of some real solutions eventually. Lest we be stuck spinning our tires forever wondering just how we can make lots of greedy people sopping wet rich AND keep inflation down.

I’m all up for a compromise, but the math isn’t there. So your kindness – genuine as it is – sounds a little silly to me.

Haven’t heard from you in a while. How about the Dow . I admit that it’s a little early to tell but that bottom I called looks to be holding up quite nicely.

I agree with you on your little saga with Adster. His shots are by no means adding to intelligent conversation. I have in the past thrown a shot or two in myself that didn’t add to intelligent conversation.

That being said, you are by no means immune to the “mudslinging” you’re cryig foul about now.

“Right wingers love to introduce chaos in the conversation and blame it on those they don’t share views with”

This may as well come directly from the Alex playbook. You yourself have done this on many occasions. Whether what you say makes sense or not is besides the point in that your ideas are usually presented in a chaotic way. Most of the time accompanied with generalizations of greed and who’s to blame. Anyone who disagrees usually gets painted with the Alex ” Ignorant, rude, greedy, right wing ” paint brush.

“What people say about me here and what actually go on in my life are so completely opposite, it’s humorous.”

I’ve thought the exact same things after your previous posts on past threads directed at me. You’ve called me many things of which none fits my character at all. I 100% guarantee that you would not be taking this kind of flack if you didn’t constantly throw it out there yourself first.

All of this is why I haven’t posted in response to you in over a month. Whatever I may type that doesn’t agree with you I’ll get back how I’m “ignorant and greedy” or “You make me sick”. Actual quotes!

You said to me in your last post:

“The trick is to pick things that truly are unworthy of your attention and handle them as such.”

You’re absolutely right and my reference to “this nonsense” was refering to all of the personal attacks taking place. A lot of which I find comes from you. (Not all of course as I’ve stated I’ve done it in the past too as well as many other right and left wingers here). Thus I’ve deemed the whole thing unworthy of my time.

The truth is that I know you’re an intelligent guy. Even though I disagree with a majority of your opinions, I also think you have some good points. It’s just very hard to grasp those points when others or myself are being belittled by your barrage of insults. I truly believe that some of your thoughts could be accepted if they were presented without such hostility. I sometimes wonder if face to face, you wouldn’t be a lot more charming in your approach. After all, what you’re doing here is contributing to the segregation between right and left wing view points. What should be done is to bring both view points together as one. After all, as we are divided as people, we are easily controlled by those who know the truth.

You didn’t make me angry. I made me angry.

I apologize for singling the three of you out.

Alex,

Your positions often sound reasonable when you’re not judging someone’s character based on a few sentences of text. We should all try to remember that it’s pretty much impossible to persuade someone while we’re kicking him in the ribs. If we aren’t sincere about sharing our views then we’re really just grandstanding for those who already agree with us.

2:00 minutes for roughing, into the box you go!

In reference to CA Student’s post this morning about City Park/North Park. I love those areas, those are two areas that we were looking to buy in. Love how the houses are different, full of character, not “cookie cutters” that all look bland. Plus there are a lot of trees (on the Saskatchewan scale!), and that’s a bonus in my books. I think it could just possibly be the “east side” vs the “west side”. Hudson Bay Park is another example I have come across that has the same problem. Some call it the best kept secret in Saskatoon. There are some darn nice houses there.

I personally don’t like the newer developments, as it seems like you have to go through a maze to get in and out, plus they don’t actually have many trees and other neighbourhood adornments. Could be they just haven’t finished totally developing, and those things are to come. I know that is strictly personal preference on my part though.

I’m not dysfunctional by any stretch of the imagination. What people say about me here and what actually go on in my life are so completely opposite, it’s humorous. *Right-wing disclaimer: I didn’t say WHAT I VALUE in reality is different, please re-read.*

Simply that I do everything within my limits to make sure I’m doing okay. That means a little acceptance here, that means a lot of activism and opinions there, that means a little rest from the pressures of both over yonder.

We aren’t in a free market just yet. I know this because you would be as upset about it as I am if it were here.

We’re somewhere in between with distressing velocity towards the complete opposite of communism.

*Egh, another right disclaimer: I don’t advocate for Communism.*

There’s no rule that says we can’t be a little more dynamic about the problems we face though.

If that means differentiating between needs and greeds, then how is that different to what has happened in the past?

With markets consolidating and people being squeezed out of affording things they’ve had for so long why not?

All those resources being flushed into the creation of debt within our own economy. We’re feeding off ourselves rather than growing.

I could go on for a bit after this…

I don’t mind what I can infer as questions in your last comment. I can for sure offer my own view and perhaps separate myself from others who wish for the market to outright crash. There are some things you mentioned in there which aren’t quite right and I suspect you haven’t been reading what I say very much.

As nicely as I can put this: try to pay attention.

As I have already stated, I don’t foresee or even desire a crash. I think if you read back I showed concern not only for current owners, but also the banks themselves! A crash would benefit us about as well as continued excessive investment activity. Neither makes for good community building.

There are lots of people who bought with no anticipation of a boom or at least accepted that the new higher prices were reasonable. That’s back when it was $110,000 to $150,000. In a lot of ways I could probably agree – even in spite of wages not having caught up to those levels. Saskatoon was a pretty good deal for the longest time. So is Winnipeg.

The first thing you need to understand is that I live in my house. From many peoples’ perspectives, it seems like nobody wants to actually do that these days. Not in Saskatchewan and Alberta at least. So I don’t own it to sell it.

The next thing is that I don’t want people to sell their homes in self sacrifice, what I’d like to see is more people living in homes. This is separate from investment which simply monopolizes housing without reason.

That is difficult for many people to understand when all they can see through to is MONEY. It’s a ludicrous concept because what’s more important than a glut of wealth at the expense of others?

Perhaps the wealth of the national economy? Perhaps the communities impacted? That affects you too in the end.

If you decouple what others have said from what I’m saying, you’ll very quickly see that I distinguish between those looking for somewhere to live, and those looking for a quick buck.