Saskatoon real estate: Week in review (March 9-13 2009)
New listings activity declined by fourteen units over last week as Saskatoon real estate agents introduced a total of 126 residential listings to the local MLS including 121 single-family homes and condominiums (85 houses & 36 condos). Following eight weeks of gains in new listings on a year-over-year basis, this marks the second consecutive week in which new listings have been down fairly significantly over last year. Still, total active residential listing managed to grow by thirty properties to finish the week at 1,343. There are currently 827 single-family homes and 431 condominiums offered for sale within the city of Saskatoon, compared to 274 and 112 respectively for the same week last year.
New listing activity may have been off, but sales also remain sluggish for March. A total of 49 houses and condos were reported firmly sold to the Saskatoon MLS, the same volume that traded hands last week, but nearly half the number that sold during the same week last year. I had every expectation that sales levels would be lower than those recorded through March of 2007 and 2008, but I am a little surprised that we are falling short of that fifty-unit mark in what is traditionally one of the strongest months of the year for residential real estate.
Click the image for a larger version of the graph.
Following two weeks of back-to-back drops, the average selling price of a Saskatoon home bounced back from its 2009 weekly low of $232,035 and reached $280,210 by the close of business Friday. The six-week average continued to decline for the fourth consecutive week recording a loss of about $1,500 compared to last week and showing a year-over-year gain of just under $10,000. The four-week median fell over $8,000 from the week before to finish at $260,000, just $9,000 ahead of the same week last year. Looking back to 2008 our graph shows the six-week average and the four-week median going through a pretty major growth spurt for the next number of weeks. Given the rather substantial change in the supply and demand picture, it seems more likely that both of these numbers will slip below those recorded last year within the next couple of weeks.
Sixty seven price changes were recorded over the course of the week, and sixteen of thirty-three canceled or withdrawn listings came back to the MLS system for another go, most at a new price.
Click the image for a larger version of the graph.
The average underbid for the week increased slightly from $10,577 last week to $10,929. Given the significantly higher average sale price this week, the discount actually amounted to 3.8% of the asking price, down from 4.1 last week.
The percentage of sellers who managed a deal within $5,000 of their asking price increased from 18% last week to 35%, while the $5,001 to $10,000 category got a little smaller falling from 45% to 35%. The $10,001-$15,000 category fell to just 8% from 21% the week before and the $15,001-$20,000 category moved in the same direction falling to 8% from 12%. The $20,0001-$25,000 underbids category saw some big gains growing to 10% from just 4% the week before. Four buyers managed to negotiate an accepted offer with a discount greater than $25K.
See a Google map displaying the boundaries of Saskatoon real estate “areas” here
Data collection and calculation for our statistical reports
I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions. All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.
Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate
144 comments so far. We'd love to hear your thoughts.
April 13th, 2009 at 11:15 AM
Is it possible that some homeowners are delaying listing to prevent flooding the market, which could have the unintended side effect of driving their value down and at the same time increasing the level of competition? It has been unusually colder this March, so I wonder if that’s had impact on listings or sales.
April 13th, 2009 at 11:16 AM
Jason:
That could be possible. For me, if I were intending to sell my home, I would put it on the market as soon as possible. Certainly anyone delaying putting up their house for sale would expecting prices to go up or at least remain flat.
April 13th, 2009 at 11:16 AM
I don’t think sellers on mass act like a cartel. It’s every man for himself and I think people would be listing sooner rather than later. Cold weather would affect sales more than listings i would think. people plan days, even weeks ahead, to list their home, beyond short term forecasts. Buyers stay home on the cold days.
April 13th, 2009 at 11:17 AM
I agree with Mark that cold weather is more likely to affect sales than listings.
Of course, it’s far too early to know for sure but I suppose it is possible that more prospective sellers tried to get the jump on the spring market by listing earlier. That’s certainly what I would have done.
Whatever the case, I’m sure it will become apparent soon enough. Last year’s huge glut of inventory definitely started its climb right about now.
April 13th, 2009 at 11:17 AM
Mark, I never suggested that sellers acted en masse or that there was a massive underground conspiracy to withhold listing; I was merely suggesting that *some* sellers may be waiting for inventory levels to drop before listing. It’s entirely possible that some may have decided to list earlier, too.
April 13th, 2009 at 11:19 AM
I’m noticing more and more skips and dumpsters out on the streets in front of neighbor’s houses: I’m assuming that some of these people are taking advantage of the tax credit for home improvement, but probably some are preparing to sell.
I’m surprised at the low listings, but I’m also really surprised at the low sales! Okay, sure, it was -35 last Saturday, but still…49 sales for the 4th week in a row?
April 13th, 2009 at 11:19 AM
jrochest,
House prices have basically hit Dec 07 values, give or take a few months. Adding in realtor fees, lawyer fees and bank fees for breaking the mortgage, ones who bought spec properties in this time frame can not sell without handing the bank a cheque to cover the difference. And in Canada we do not have short sales like the States. So we won’t see those listings. Add in housing starts declining I think listings and inventory will level off sooner than later.
Many of these people will just rent the property out and hope for better days.
49 sales 4 weeks in a row means the market is consistent:)
April 13th, 2009 at 11:20 AM
“And in Canada we do not have short sales like the States. So we won’t see those listings.”
Even if the bank ends up with the listings, they will still show up on the market, won’t they?
In the “least surprising news of the day” category:
Carney hedges economic rebound prediction
http://tinyurl.com/b5oxr7
“HORSHAM, England — The Bank of Canada seems to have ditched its prediction for a made-in-Canada economic rebound next year. Speaking to reporters at the Group of 20 finance ministers meeting in Horsham, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney hinted strongly that his last forecast for 3.8 per cent growth in 2010 is no longer valid. “Clearly the risks are breaking to the downside,” he said, referring to the string of grim Canadian and international growth data in recent weeks”
Honestly, is anyone surprised by this? Well… besides Mr. Carney, that is.
April 13th, 2009 at 11:20 AM
jrochest,
“but still…49 sales for the 4th week in a row?”
49 sales a week was enough to put February into that “typical sales” range but normally we would expect to see things ramping up over Q1. February is usually stronger than January, and March is usually stronger than February. That doesn’t appear to be happening this year. Over the past two weeks there have been an additional 11 sales in other residential units, mostly “half duplexes.”
George,
“ones who bought spec properties in this time frame can not sell without handing the bank a cheque to cover the difference.”
I wonder if the “specs” are actually starting to thin out a bit. We’re down to 506 (37%) vacant properties. I think we’ve been closer to 50% for the better part of a year.
Crikey,
“Even if the bank ends up with the listings, they will still show up on the market, won’t they?”
Yes.
“Honestly, is anyone surprised by this? Well… besides Mr. Carney, that is.”
I was fairly surprised to hear another “downgrading” of expectations. Everyone was being so positive last week, including Harper and Obama.
April 13th, 2009 at 11:21 AM
Full video of Jim Kramer explaining how to manipulate the stock market (you saw some clips of this on The Daily Show).
http://tinyurl.com/aby3vz
April 13th, 2009 at 11:21 AM
Norm,
Regarding spec properties,I think it is a combination of some of the vacant listings being sold and the others taken off the market to be rented the reason why vacant listings have dropped. I would imagine there are probably a bunch of listings that have renters right now in which the sellers had never wanted to rent the property but are forced to cover some of the bleeding.
April 13th, 2009 at 11:22 AM
George,
179 of 1,343 residential are tenant occupied.
April 13th, 2009 at 11:22 AM
Norm, re: “specs”. I think I’m with George on this one: the numbers would seem to indicate about 685 homes vacant or rented, which is about 50% of current listings. Late Fall and Winter is typically the worst selling season so it would make sense for a lot of owners to look at short-term rentals to carry them over (as well as cover off some of their higher utility costs) until things normally pick up again in Spring, which doesn’t seem to be the case this year.
re: current sales. I actually think that conditions could be excellent for first time homebuyers this year: not to buy a home, but to rent one for less than it would cost to own! If sales continue at the current levels they may be able to negotiate favorable terms based on inventory and vacancy. Not only that, but they’ll be somewhat insulated from any interest rate or property tax increases (at least until their lease is up for renewal). And the most important consideration: they’re not an owner in this market.
April 13th, 2009 at 11:23 AM
“I was fairly surprised to hear another “downgrading” of expectations.”
I think this is just the economy catching up to our beloved Mr. Market’s expectations. I’ve actually become positive enough about the market itself to just start peeking out of my “all cash” hidey-hole. Just a wee bit.
April 13th, 2009 at 11:26 AM
Crikey,
Predictions for our own province have worked their way down from 3.6% to .9% most recently. My favorite Saskatchewan saying? “Of course, we’re not immune but blah, blah, blah…”
“I’ve actually become positive enough about the market itself to just start peeking out of my “all cash” hidey-hole.”
Iiiiinteresting. I am presently going in the opposite direction. I used last week’s rally as an opportunity to start stepping out again. I’m crossing my fingers for a half decent week for oil and mining. Hope to be 100% cash by Friday.
April 13th, 2009 at 11:26 AM
Bull Run in Regina
http://www.thestarphoenix.com/Health/Bull+goes+Regina/1387528/story.html
April 13th, 2009 at 11:28 AM
“I am presently going in the opposite direction.”
Not an opposite direction at all, really. I’m just dipping toes at this point, and in no way expecting that a sustained or generalized “bottom” is in the offing. I’d also expect that “recovery” is going to look much different than most would expect.
I’ve learned to be quite comfortable with my risk aversion.
captcha= lead margins
April 13th, 2009 at 11:28 AM
Are Regina housing prices less affordable than Saskatoon? Some people on this blog will be furious…..lol.
According to the Winnipeg Sun it is at least…..
http://www.winnipegsun.com/news/winnipeg/2009/03/12/8717486-sun.html
April 13th, 2009 at 11:39 AM
“Not an opposite direction at all, really.”
You’re moving in, I’m moving out. That’s kind of an opposite direction.
Would you share what you think recovery will look like? I haven’t really got the foggiest idea and I am a little concerned about missing it.
April 13th, 2009 at 11:39 AM
I’m not sure I can be of any help at all, but I’ll give it a go.
Here are my glimmers of optimism:
-Leading indicators appear to be trending into more historical ranges. Credit risk indicators for financial institutions are trending down. Balance sheets of financial institutions are another issue, but Canadian financial institutions are less exposed to this type of risk than the US or the UK. Corporate debt and market volatility, while still *very* high by historical standards, are trending down as well.
-Lagging indicators (employment, housing data, consumer and economic data) are horrendous, and will continue to be horrendous for some time.
-Massive financial stimulus and infrastructure projects should provide a boost to many industries. R & D into alternative energies should provide this as well, and as long as credit keeps flowing to these projects, I think the need and will is there to develop them.
-As bad as the housing data seem coming from the US, the *volume* of inventory out there seems to be indicating they are at the beginning of the transition from the “guillotine” phase to the “sandpaper” phase, with volume preceding price. This isn’t indicative of a recovery so much as a lessening of the nastiness. The bottom for inventory may come as early as next year (even though prices themselves would still be “nowhere near bottom”). I’m less concerned about prices in terms of an indication of recovery- this will be much slower to see any recovery.
-The psychology out there is changing. Even a year ago, if I had mentioned overleveraged banks and consumers I would get that “look”. Now many more people get it. Predatory loans and lax fiscal/policy is actually being discussed, and in some cases acted upon. Stewart slamming Cramer was a classic example of the zeitgeist of this- people are getting that they’ve been led down the financial garden path and they are pissed off. Action is being taken, and more is coming. This has got to be good for markets stabilizing eventually.
Please do keep in mind that whatever my instincts are about these sorts of things, I’ve always been early. My glimmers of optimism are early too, I’m sure. I wouldn’t worry about missing the recovery- we’re down 50%+ from the peak, after all, and IMHO there isn’t going to be a sudden return to “normalcy,” insofar as we regard “normalcy” as the debt-fueled consumption that made the consumer 70%+ of the economy. I’m not sure if this fully answers your question, but I hope it helps.
I’d welcome any feedback about this, of course.
April 13th, 2009 at 11:40 AM
Norm, sure it’s been brought up before, but anyway you could add “total available listings” to your “units sold.v.listed” graph? Maybe with a larger scale on the right hand side? The current graph is great, but total listings might show a bit more of a trend, kind of like the idea of the 6 week mean/4 week medians.
Think the real estate assocaiton would consider this “softening demand from 2008″ when the rest of us would say, Demand Down over Past Several Springs.
Jason, “Is it possible that some homeowners are delaying listing to prevent flooding the market” I
would bet on it. Funny that when ever I’m back in Saskatoon, buildings where I know 3 or 4 units are on sale, have 1 for sale sign out front. All about perception. Don’t want buyers to know how much really is for sale – and not selling. Not sure what they are waiting for, not like demand is going to go up, or supply fall, any time soon, and I know a few personal friends (who I have mentioned in the past) who are sitting on vacant 2nd properties, waiting for the market to turn before listing… Norm I did tell them months ago to cut losses (ie take the money they made in the last couple years) but they are blinded by the brief spring 2008 prices, and not yet willing to accept they may need to settle on only a $50,000 mark up on a $120,000 condo, and not the $100,000 + they could have got last March…
April 13th, 2009 at 11:40 AM
Two comments Potential:
Good luck finding a $190,000 house in Saskatoon. Even in the ghetto. That is in any way average!
Regina has a median wage about $5,000 more than Saskatoon. House prices there may well have caught up to Saskatoon. On a pure affordability basis, the higher wages would say they should be more.
And last I bothered looking in Regina (no easy blog for great weekly stats here) Regina has a substantially smaller inventory than Saskatoon, and over built less/had fewer speculators (aka vacant condos/houses) than Saskatoon had last year, so less have vacant town house complexes in the city that rhymes with fun.
April 13th, 2009 at 11:42 AM
Crikey,
Thanks. Appreciate hearing your thoughts.
Nick,
I’m going to do something with a total active listings graph on a monthly basis, probably to coincide with SRAR’s monthly release.
April 13th, 2009 at 11:43 AM
Resale housing market up 8.6% in February
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1394905
Essentially the total number of MLS sales are up nationally even though prices are down everywhere else (except Quebec, it would seem). I know the number of sales in Western Canada is down year-over-year, so some parts of the country must be having a banner year compared to last year.
Most Canadians haven’t reduced spending: Survey
http://www.canada.com/Business/story.html?id=1395291
I found some of the results of this survey a bit surprising, ie: more than 80 per cent of Canadians are either spending more or the same as they did about half a year ago. It seems to contradict a decline in retail sales and consumer confidence and a lot of visual evidence that people are changing their spending habits, but if it’s a fairly accurate snapshot all I can say is: “wow”.
captcha = 1975 insane
April 13th, 2009 at 11:43 AM
Recession offers potential for more work-life balance
http://working.canada.com/resources/story.html?id=f248c2b5-cba7-4d16-b85b-9821b953cd39
“Finally, a potential upside to the downturn. In past recessions, employers instituted shorter work hours to cut costs and save jobs, a historian says, suggesting this economic crisis could leave people with more time for life outside of work – albeit with a smaller paycheque.”
There’s so many great things in this article, but I think this one quote sums it up best: “We have been selling off our leisure over the last 30 years”. I’m going to venture a bit out onto a limb here… is it possible that starting with the baby boomer generation (and continuing on) we’ve managed to screw up a good thing? Where we once had a better quality of life and balance between work and play? Maybe “catching up with the Jones’s” is finally proving to be not worth the chase for many? I think there’s a good chance we’re going to see the initial signs of a social revolution could lead the march back towards a simpler time.
April 13th, 2009 at 11:44 AM
Fresh from the S-P:
Homes sales drop in Feb., prices rise
http://tinyurl.com/dy9o7k
SASKATOON — New figures show the number of Saskatoon homes sold in February fell more than 40 per cent from 12 months earlier, while at the same time, the prices of those houses rose by nearly seven per cent.
Jason,
“captcha = 1975 insane”
Love it!
April 13th, 2009 at 11:46 AM
Oh, I do *love* the way the CRA presents its data: “SALES ARE UP”.
Yes, sales are up month over month: there were more sales in February than there were in January. As there always are, every year, because no-one buys houses in January.
However, buried in the second sentence is the important data: “Despite February’s gains, sales are still down 31% year over year, as are prices, which have fallen 9.2% in the past 12 months, CREA said.”.
In other words, both sales and prices are down year-over-year.
April 13th, 2009 at 11:47 AM
jrochest,
“buried in the second sentence”
Come on now.
Of course, CREA didn’t write that story. The Financial Post did.
CREA did a slightly better job of “burying” the data in their release.
http://creanews.ca/2009/03/16/buyers-drawn-into-real-estate-market-in-february/
Hey, you can’t blame them for giving the good news first. They are a Realtor organization after all, and the first month-over-month up since September is good news for Realtors.
April 13th, 2009 at 11:47 AM
jrochest, looks like the Financial Post got ahead of itself (from the link to the Star Phoenix article that Crikey posted):
“CREA’s figures for the nation show a drop in home sales, home price and home listings for the month of February.”
Nice spot Crikey! (captcha does throw some weird phrases out there!) I like this quote the best:
“We’re more normal than what we normally would be, and of course in Saskatchewan we have the advantage of having a lot more stable economy than elsewhere in Canada and elsewhere in North America, for that matter,” Harry Janzen said.
Because, of course, 1,300+ listings in Spring is completely normal. Who needs court jesters when we have some rare talent at the SRAR!
April 13th, 2009 at 11:47 AM
Here’s something that seems less normal than would normally be expected.
Why is the SP covering this local story twice? Crikey’s link from today looks a lot like this one from the third of March, right after these numbers were initially released. This news is kind of old news.
http://www.thestarphoenix.com/Business/Saskatoon+sees+drop+home+sales/1347118/story.html
Jason,
The FP story shows the same thing. You just have to dig really deep, down to the second sentence of the story to find it.
April 13th, 2009 at 11:48 AM
Norm, separate press releases for SRAR and CREA (nothing says new news like old news?). To be honest I was more impressed with the Globe’s reporting this week; they at least did some investigative research. The SP is just presenting modified press releases and attaching splashy headlines.
Crikey, just a taste of what’s too come in the US… (these are some of the first casualties of the commercial real estate crash)
Corporate meltdown leaves renters in limbo: Large apartment complexes abandoned to receivership and unruly weeds
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29697413/
April 13th, 2009 at 11:48 AM
Funny, earlier this year, when prices were down month over month, all we heard about is they were up year over year!
Now, sales are way down year over year, but we hear about month over month all of a sudden. Count down to insanity, when prices (like sales) are down year over year, and the real estate associations all flip flop to month over month stats to show gains … unless of course prices fall on the realization there is a big supply of stuff for sale. And sales aren’t just down over February 2008, they’re down over the past several Februaries
April 13th, 2009 at 11:48 AM
Nick, and not only that, but eventually (not long from now) they won’t be able to even report prices being up year-over-year. It will be interesting to see the reaction when instead of reporting a year-over-year gain of 7% they’re talking about a 7% (or higher) loss. I guess we’ll see if people “get it” at that point.
April 13th, 2009 at 11:49 AM
Banks begin to decline federal aid in first sign of recovery
Credit conditions easing, banks no longer struggling to raise funds to make loans
http://tinyurl.com/cgguxw
April 13th, 2009 at 11:49 AM
Love this.
Iowa Sen. Charles Grassley suggested on Monday that AIG executives should take a Japanese approach toward accepting responsibility for the collapse of the insurance giant by resigning or killing themselves.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29733519/
April 13th, 2009 at 2:32 PM
That is hilarious! I especially loved this quote from Senator Grassley:
“And in the case of the Japanese, they usually commit suicide before they make any apology.”
Whaaa?!
I personally think they should pay the bonuses in common stock- non-redeemable for 10 years and forefeitable if someone leaves the company. If AIG goes under, completely, the stock is worthless- but they’d have the pleasure of knowing they’re putting their money where their mouths are. Do you think they’d go for it?
Jason,
CRE may be in for continuing nastiness, but my reaction when I read this was, again… whaa?!
U.S. Housing Starts Unexpectedly Rise
http://tinyurl.com/cwqfvm
March 17 (Bloomberg) — Housing starts in the U.S. unexpectedly snapped the longest streak of declines in 18 years in February, adding to signs that the pace of the economy’s decline may be easing.”
A 22% rise from such a low number wouldn’t take alot, and it’s questionable that it will be maintained, but surprising nonetheless, no?
April 13th, 2009 at 2:32 PM
Norm, good news obviously for Canadian banks. I would only caution based on this statement because banks could easily see a reversal of fortune:
“More Canadians are pulling their cash out of mutual funds and riskier investments and parking it in deposits, such as chequing accounts and GICs. Deposits are the largest source of funding for the banks. If stock markets recover, and customers shift their money back into mutual funds and equity investments, the banks could find themselves in need of funding help again, notes Toronto-Dominion Bank chief economist Don Drummond. At the same time, the growth of banks’ loan portfolios is slowing. The soft housing market led to very weak mortgage originations in January and February, Mr. Drummond said.”
Crikey, was reading that article with interest this morning as well. If the increase had been in AZ, CA, FL or NV, yes, I’d definitely have been surprised (shocked, even). They indicated this was led by an 89% surge in the Northeast (which hasn’t seem the same kind of carnage as the sunbelt). It’s also worth mentioning that while construction was up, building permits were not as high (which may indicate a slowdown in construction). I agree with you and Norm that with numbers being so low, it doesn’t generally take a large swing in either direction to produce big percentages.
April 13th, 2009 at 2:32 PM
Regina has a moose or cow or something walking around town a few times a year. It’s kind of a red neck rural city that way.
… Maybe in a week or two when prices are DOWN month over month, and each week further DOWN year over year, the real estate association will look for week over week price gains to prove the housing market is turning around. Might lose some street cred though. They’ve already been feeding us the housing market is turning around stuff for months, and uh, it’s still weakening!
April 13th, 2009 at 2:32 PM
Nick,
I agree that RE association always looks for spin, but with prices coming down and interest rates at all time lows the next push will be “it is a great time to buy”. And I would not necessarily disagree with them.
Out of the years 07,08,09, 09 would be the best year to buy a house. In 07 and 08 buyers had to deal with bidding wars, rates were higher than now, prices a bit lower in 07, higher in 08.
Now buyers have a great selection and there are bidding wars happening. A handful of sellers are bidding on one buyer. Prices are coming down. And interest rates are very low.
But if one where to buy, I would wait a couple of months. More selection and price drops by then. Expect the BofC to drop to %0.25 possibly even ZIRP! Variable rate would probably be under %3. And one may find a 5 year fixed under %4.
April 13th, 2009 at 2:33 PM
“But if one where to buy, I would wait a couple of months. More selection and price drops by then. Expect the BofC to drop to %0.25 possibly even ZIRP! Variable rate would probably be under %3. And one may find a 5 year fixed under %4.” – George
Wow those rates are starting to sound very low, I did hear about the possible drop to .25% on the news yesterday as well.
I am aiming for a purchase in August or so but in no hurry…. see what happens between now and than.
April 13th, 2009 at 2:34 PM
Dang. Sorry, I have no idea where these jobs are based:
Potash extends temporary layoffs for 940 workers
http://tinyurl.com/dag9ag
April 13th, 2009 at 2:36 PM
Crikey just not fair, I think you beat me to every local news story, same story, different link, still 940 high paying Potash Jobs out of the Sask economy is a big deal, no matter how temporary.
http://finance.sympatico.msn.ca/investing/news/businessnews/article.aspx?cp-documentid=18630010
Wonder if other employees in the Potash and Uranium industry have taken this as a wake up call to do some saving?
April 13th, 2009 at 2:40 PM
Rocanville, Lanigan and Allan.
April 13th, 2009 at 2:40 PM
Further to Crikey’s post on PCS.
http://tinyurl.com/9k9xt7
Conference Board says Saskatchewan economy to grow by 1.6% in 2009.
RBC begs to differ and predicts .9%.
Scotiabank chimes in and says, “No growth for you!”
http://tinyurl.com/cpwxkh
It’s pretty cool though that you can be the “provincial growth leader” without any projected growth.
April 13th, 2009 at 2:40 PM
Norm is a wonderful exception. A realtor who would think to let potential buyers know there may be no growth in Saskatchewan’s economy next year. Doesn’t hurt to be honest. Especially when every one else might contract their economies. Surprising that no other realtor would even acknowledge this. Bet they’re still pointing to the 3% number.
April 13th, 2009 at 2:41 PM
“-hot housing market, have supported a province-leading pace of retail activity.”
maybe they forgot about the last half of 2008?
April 13th, 2009 at 2:41 PM
Norm Fan,
You kill me.
April 13th, 2009 at 2:41 PM
“These payments were all made to individuals in the subsidiary whose performance led to crushing losses and the near failure of AIG,” Mr. Cuomo wrote. “Thus, last week, AIG made more than 73 millionaires in the unit which lost so much money that it brought the firm to its knees, forcing a taxpayer bailout. Something is deeply wrong with this outcome.”
http://tinyurl.com/ch2psm
You don’t say? What the hell is wrong with people?
April 13th, 2009 at 2:42 PM
“Now, if people complain and say things like “Well…. I really don’t wanna be a landlord, my answer is simple. Get out. Don’t invest, you’re obviously a person who doesn’t understand the risk v. reward dynamics of investment property”
(while we’re talking about typical realtors)
v. just not wanting to be a landlord?
v. not wanting the tennants? the legal responsibility?
v. understanding and just not being interested
next week, why people who don’t own small businesses are jerks!
April 13th, 2009 at 2:42 PM
Did someone say Potash? Anyone remember this…?
http://www.thestarphoenix.com/Business/PotashCorp+projects+create+jobs/999358/story.html
captcha: adventures of
April 13th, 2009 at 2:43 PM
Not outraged enough already? More AIG fun and games:
It’s not the bonuses. It’s that AIG’s counterparties are getting paid back in full.
http://tinyurl.com/cf94u4
Nick,
Gotcha.
April 13th, 2009 at 2:44 PM
Strange I dont hear those birds anymore chirping how great Alberta is anymore wonder where they went??
Anyways anybody max out ur TFSA lately?? Or am i the only one….im sure if u bought a house now and maxed out ur tfsa’s every year till u retired im sure ull be a multi-millionaire in net worth even with these troubles all around us.
Sorry if i havent been around ive been working 3 jobs still but i still read this blog sometimes because its usually an unbiased few to the world and keeps me grounded…because im a hardcore optimist =o)
April 13th, 2009 at 2:44 PM
Realist,
Huh?
Crikey,
Maybe they’ll push the limits just enough to actually attract some fraud charges, if that’s possible.
Armoth,
“ive been working 3 jobs still”
Man, I hope you make it to retirement.
Glad to hear you are well and saving your money Armoth.
April 13th, 2009 at 2:45 PM
Armoth, yes, we max’d our TSFAs. This is the closest you’ll ever get to paying tax *once* and then never again…
Re: AIG, from the sounds of it the execs that could be prosecuted already took their bonus and fled for calmer waters (not surprising, really – would you want to stick around for the Congressional fireworks to follow?)
April 13th, 2009 at 2:45 PM
Well Armoth Alberta still has a far higher average wage and cheaper house prices in Edmonton. For many young grads from Saskatchewan, moving to Alberta is the smart economic choice. Though it doesn’t have Saskatchewan’s booming 0% and falling anticipated growth
April 13th, 2009 at 2:46 PM
Armoth maybe if you lived in Edmonton you could get away with working one high paying job since you’d be saving so much on rent.
April 13th, 2009 at 2:46 PM
“Did someone say Potash? Anyone remember this…?”
Jason, they just reaffirmed today they still plan to go ahead with all that expansion, creating thousands of jobs over the next few years. So yes, I remember it, from this morning.
April 13th, 2009 at 2:46 PM
Mark, I’d like to see it happen, but I think I’ll remain cautiously optimistic with the current economic environment.
April 13th, 2009 at 2:47 PM
Jason,
You’d “like to see it happen.” It’s so nice to see such a display of optimism coming from you, however cautious it may be.
Crikey is tip-toeing back into the markets, George says it might be a great time to buy, Garth Turner actually bought a property and Jason says that he’d “like to see” something good happen.
The bears seem to be getting restless. Is change in the air?
George,
“A handful of sellers are bidding on one buyer.”
I actually wrote an offer on one of my listings last week. That’s only odd because I wasn’t the buyer’s agent. I wrote it, had the seller sign it and sent it over to the buyer’s agent. It didn’t work but it was worth a shot. ):
On a much lighter note, and totally off of real estate, I came across this advertisement posted on a photoshop blog I visit. It’s an ad for a children’s computer desk.
http://photoshopdisasters.blogspot.com/2009/03/computerdeskscom-wat.html
Check out what these two six year old boys are looking at on the computer in front of them. As I asked earlier, “what the hell is wrong with people?”
April 13th, 2009 at 2:47 PM
Norm, a novel approach on your part! (with the added merit of probably having never been tried) I think any unique “outside-of-the-box” thinking is definitely beneficial in this kind of market. I tip I thought I’d pass along from the Phoenix real estate market: the agents with cash/approved buyers are like gold, and the only listing agents putting deals together are the ones moving from the traditional 50-50 split on commission (ie: more going to the buyer’s agent).
April 13th, 2009 at 2:47 PM
Iv notice allot of buyers from China are now starting to take advantage of these cheap prices. Especially in the states, I would not be surprised if that was the contributing factor for the slight increase in housing sales in the states this past month. Who knows maybe the Chinese will buy Americans out of the recession!. Prices will go up again, you can count on it, the market just has to catch up with itself again. 2009 will be a steady year, prices here in Saskatoon will go up a tad bit in the spring but nothing worth getting excited about. Then things will drop off through the fall winter months. By spring 2010 we should see a repeat of the 2008 spring sales we had, which was a good spring!!. Donald Trump now has taken back his previous statements saying he thinks we’re going into a depression. And now says things will get a little worse this year, but things will pick up substantially in 2010. So for investors here in Saskatoon, don’t be in a rush to sell your property now. You best bet is to wait it out tell spring 2010. My predictions have been pretty accurate thus far, I was even right when I predicted Obama would win with 53% of the vote, and he did just that. I’ll also bet that average home sales hits 310,000 this spring.
April 13th, 2009 at 2:48 PM
Stoon,
Who are you working for????
“My predictions have been pretty accurate thus far”
Says you. It’s difficult to track no-name bloggers comings and goings, if you want a pinch of credibility you should try using your real name. Average home prices can be deceiving, it doesn’t paint the entire picture. If more houses are selling compared to condos we’ve already seen how this causes an increase but it doesn’t mean actual values are increasing.
April 13th, 2009 at 2:48 PM
S,toon,
You do realize that spring starts in 3 days?
Let’s be clear then. Are you predicting that the average “residential sale price” will reach $310,000 by the end of June (like these numbers here)?
http://www.teamfisher.com/MLS__Stats/page_1723681.html
April 13th, 2009 at 2:49 PM
Armoth,
I’m still here in Alberta and still loving it!! Sure things have definitely cooled off, but I am comfortable and just received my 2008 50K bonus yesterday, so I’m big smilling Saskie working in Alberta!! The wealth is still very much in Alberta, but with just fewer overtime!! I love working in Edmonton and flying home to Stoon on the weekends, its a very nice lifestyle.
(P.S working 4-10′s in Edmonton is 1000% better than working in Fort McMurray on 10-10′s)
April 13th, 2009 at 2:49 PM
Stoon, thanks for the laugh this morning (although you’re still a bit early for April Fools’)! Anyone gullible to fall for your poor advice and outrageous predictions are indeed, the Greater Fools.
April 13th, 2009 at 2:49 PM
Wesco
interesting link of Alberta’s deficit
http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2009/02/27/8553551-sun.html and I like that bonus =’( the only bonus i got this year was 4.6k back from tax which was nice but i wish i got 50k!
April 13th, 2009 at 2:50 PM
I think we should all have a positive day today. I fear this blog is no longer a discussion about real estate but rather it is a network of people attacking others who have a positive outlook.
April 13th, 2009 at 2:50 PM
Mmm, yes, S’toon. Donald Trump is the epitome of intelligence and pointed self-reflection. He’s only filed for bankruptcy 3 times, after all (most recently in February 2009, after failing to pay a $40m loan to Deutsche Bank in December). You’re right- the world truly would be a better place if everyone thought like him.
L.oki,
Thank you for telling us what kind of a day we should have. I’ll decide that for myself, thank you. Do you have a speific example of the behaviour you’re admonishing us for?
Rosy outlook from Harper and Carney ‘unrealistic,’ Dodge says
http://tinyurl.com/cpsdnl
April 13th, 2009 at 2:51 PM
[quote]Check out what these two six year old boys are looking at on the computer in front of them.[/quote]
I clicked the link, but I’ve got NO idea what I’m supposed to be looking at here. It’s not even a real computer they’re sitting at, but a cardboard replica. Care to explain the joke for the humour impaired?
(Or maybe they changed the picture?)
April 13th, 2009 at 2:51 PM
l.oki,
You must have been absent when Jason was called “ridiculous” last week by someone with a “positive outlook.” I didn’t say anything about it. To be honest, I too thought his comment was a bit ridiculous. I also thought Jason was probably a big enough person to suck up a little opposition to his point of view. Turns out he is a big boy and handled himself admirably. He’s certainly proven that he can dish it out but I’m sure that S’toon isn’t crying in his/her corn flakes either.
April 13th, 2009 at 2:51 PM
Bookrat,
They did change the picture. I’m sure it was probably a rather sudden burst of click thrus that tipped them off.
You can see what appeared yesterday here.
http://photoshopdisasters.blogspot.com/2009/03/computerdeskscom-wat.html
April 13th, 2009 at 2:52 PM
Several things make me bet that the altered image was never on the online store’s website. Did you actually see it there, Norm, or just on the photoshop blog?
April 13th, 2009 at 2:53 PM
Interesting reading (a bit off-topic, albeit still about the economy).
Meet the Canadian whose big idea felled Wall Street
http://www.thestar.com/business/article/604033
Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Street
http://www.wired.com/techbiz/it/magazine/17-03/wp_quant
April 13th, 2009 at 2:54 PM
I haven’t posted much here recently but I see being off this site for a while means missing out on excitement. Looks like Armoth sure shook the pot. Good thing is that everyone still seems to take things well though.
I won’t repeat what has already been said about the Alberta jobs but i will add to it. Anyone who has been laid off in Oil and Gas here (and there have been quite a few) haven’t had too many problems finding another job in the industry since companies will pretty much only rehire experienced workers now. However, i do have some friends who are not in oil and gas and they are struggling a bit.
Having said that i will replay a broken record. My friend in Regina who passed all 3 levels of his CFA still cannot get a decent finance job there. He is stuck in his govt job (which is comfy but a waste of his education). Two MBA grads that I know cannot get a business related job there.
On a positive not for buyers in Alberta is that you can build really cheap now. One of my friends from Edmonton just moved here and can build a 2000ft two storey in New Brighton , no garage, for 330k. That is absurd. Mind you this is way out in New brighton which is roughly 22km from downtown but still. Not a chance in hell you could do this last year for under 400k. The builders are canabalizing each other to death here. The used market hasn’t dropped nearly as fast.
April 13th, 2009 at 2:54 PM
Website lists city among world’s most dangerous
http://www.thestarphoenix.com/news/Website+lists+city+among+world+most+dangerous/1400570/story.html
Where in the world do these surveys come from?
Out East?
April 13th, 2009 at 2:57 PM
Vinny,
Builders (mainly of condos) are feeling the pain in Vancouver as well:
Vancouver condo price drop leads to lawsuits and big discounts
http://tinyurl.com/d36err
“Amacon said it is cutting prices in The Beasley project by 22 per cent, some $100,000 to $250,000 and more per unit”
George,
Saskatoon on the same list as Mogadishu? Too much.
April 13th, 2009 at 2:57 PM
Bookrat,
When I posted the first link last night it was direct to that site and displaying the same image as it appeared on PSD. I captured a screen shot at 7:40 pm. I have this site in my reader. The guy always posts a link to the original. Often, they don’t last more than a few hours.
George,
That list is just too much man. Hopefully Nick won’t see it.
April 13th, 2009 at 2:58 PM
Mocked CEOs need ‘only $3,700 a day’ (and other interesting mockeries)
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/offbeat/2009/03/17/moos.mocking.ceos.cnn
April 13th, 2009 at 2:58 PM
More on Chinese toxic drywall (this time out of Florida). Yet one more reason to do your due diligence (home inspections, on-site, etc.) when looking for a Winter vacation home
http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/03/18/chinese.drywall/index.html
April 13th, 2009 at 2:58 PM
Jason,
some bad news about granite countertops, it may have radon gas which is the second leading cause of lung cancer. If I had granite, I would be getting it tested, especially if it was bought a low price.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/24/garden/24granite.html?_r=1
April 13th, 2009 at 2:59 PM
George, apparently nothing is sacred in construction anymore…! Thanks for the head’s up, I’m definitely getting some granite tested! I found these additional links which may be helpful:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/health/radon.html
http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/hl-vs/iyh-vsv/environ/radon-eng.php
April 13th, 2009 at 2:59 PM
It’s hard to tell that Saskatchewan is an ultra-violent, impoverished hellhole, at least from this year’s budget:
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2009/03/18/budget-main.html
Something that caught my attention:
“For the first time ever, the province is taking in more in potash revenues ($1.9 billion) than it is in income tax ($1.8 billion).”
Interesting, particularly for the “real people don’t really benefit from rising resource prices” argument I’ve seen here in the last few weeks. I mention this because I’ve largely agreed with this crowd in the past. Now, there’s no guarantee that all that revenue will get spent in ways that help “real people”, but I’d be hard pressed to criticize this government’s spending decision too harshly. (With the one huge caveat of Station 20 West, but that’s neither here nor there)
April 13th, 2009 at 2:59 PM
George, believe it or not, there are no home inspection companies offering radon testing in Saskatoon. I called around and found one place (AmeriSpec) that is planning to offer radon testing starting in April (www.amerispec.ca, 652-8779).
April 13th, 2009 at 3:00 PM
Spring last all of April, may, and into mid June so yes prices will hit $310K or above during that time period. There may be a housing surplus now, but I can guarantee you there will be another housing shortage in Saskatchewan in the next 5 years. I know of developers who are working on building high rise condo buildings in the downtown core district. They are not petty and look at these little weekly stats, any smart investor would no better then to bet your money on weekly stat updates! Yes its nice to see and it keeps people coming back to this blog, and don’t get me wrong Norm has allot of great info, that’s why I’m here. People need to look at the big picture here in Saskatchewan, and need to realize the gold mine that is Saskatchewan, and the un tapped money pit that has yet to be banked. We’re Alberta’s TWIN BROTHER, who has not be paid much attention to. Well times are changing and its time for this TWIN BROTHER to get to work and start pumping out the dollars. If it were not for the George Bush created world recession, Sask would still be booming. This however is a small blip on the radar, and as I said 2010 things will be back to normal. These developers who are investing who r investing millions into the downtown core in the end will be the winners 5 years from now. Think long term, not next week.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:00 PM
The CBC article says that
“For a Regina home with a taxable assessment of $200,000, the savings would be $457 in 2010, the government said.”
Does this translate the same for Saskatoon?
Also good question on the CBC site – will this transfer to lower rents as the reduction is passed on?
April 13th, 2009 at 3:04 PM
“Also good question on the CBC site – will this transfer to lower rents as the reduction is passed on?”
Not much chance of that. Rents are determined by market demand, not an owner’s underlying costs.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:04 PM
Of course high commodity prices in a commodity selling market help subsidize all of us!
Here’s hoping they hold their ground/go up.
Good for the province.
That said, that’s a big if.
Not a lawyer, the crime is still pretty darn high, now we all just have more toys to be robbed of.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:05 PM
Norm, one of the most dangerous cities in the world is silly. Even I can admit that.
Still, within Canada, and relative to other Canadian cities, Saskatoon has a much worse crime rate than any where else in Canada, regardless of whose study you look at, Saskatoon has been called the most violent, dangerous, crime ridden etc. for the past 2 years – in Canada.
Sure there are 10 cities each in Iraq, Afghanistan, Mexico etc. that are far worse. Maybe those countries have no one city though that is so much worse than the national average?
Would still feel safer walking in Ontario after dark,
definitely can’t say the same for a lot of American cities, Middle Eastern – day or light. etc. But that doesn’t really matter, like this survey, opinion not really a good measure. The reason I see Saskatoon as so violent compared to other Canadian jurisdictions is Stat Can data! Year after Year, so not explained by a one year blip – especially when last year, Saskatoon had more than 3,200 Violent (ie Serious) Crimes.
Saskatoon is far and away Canada’s most violent city, but overall, Canada is a very safe country. Just bugs me when people pretend Toronto or Vancouver is dangerous because a tiny fraction of their huge populations are victims, and seem to warrant more national attention than the drive by shooting in Saskatoon a couple weeks ago that didn’t even make PROVINCIAL CBC news, when a Toronto shooting was on the National. We’re not even in the same league as many other world cities – though Maclean’s did say Saskatoon, Regina and Winnipeg WOULD be among the 10 Most Dangerous American cities!!
April 13th, 2009 at 3:06 PM
Seems a lot of Saskatchewan’s “appeal” for keeping young people is Fear Based Marketing.
“Cost of Living” is cheaper here
It’s not, cheaper to live in Edmonton
“Big cities are dangerous” “it’s safe here”
Not true, Toronto less than half the crime
Toronto suburbs the lowest crime rate in Canada!
“jobs pay well here”
Not nearly as well as Regina or Alberta
I put my money where my mouth is and moved to Regina.
One thing lost in the “provincial” boom is Regina is at worst the same price, has more secure government jobs, pays better, and now has (slightly) less violent crime.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:07 PM
Stoon,
Thanks for the “spring” lesson.
I guess I had that coming.
I love Saskatchewan and Saskatoon. I don’t have a lot of issues about the promising future that we have and I am encouraged by the interest which has been shown in our province and our city. I’m thankful that there are people and companies who are willing to invest in our city and contribute to its growth. These are all wonderful developments. Unfortunately, the province doesn’t buy homes, people do. As long as the people who live here are earning an average household income of around $60,000 they won’t be able to afford a $310,000 home even if they are gullible enough to agree to buy one. This is a problem that can’t be overcome by a promising future. When the promises of the future are realized, and when the people who live here are experiencing those benefits through a stronger household income, then homes may once again reach ridiculous levels. Until then it seems unlikely to me that it should cost more to buy a home in Saskatoon than it does in other wonderful cities where household incomes are already higher.
I guess the end of June isn’t that far off so we’ll soon know if you’re right. If you are, I will humbly bow to you for your wisdom and foresight. Mean time, a sizable wager would delight me if you have enough confidence in your prediction to make yourself known.
captcha: “70 experts” – that seems about right
April 13th, 2009 at 3:08 PM
Nick,
“Norm, one of the most dangerous cities in the world is silly. Even I can admit that.”
Oh, how gracious of you.
“One thing lost in the “provincial” boom is Regina is at worst the same price, has more secure government jobs, pays better, and now has (slightly) less violent crime.”
Aaaaand, I would also add that Regina has a Chili’s.
How many murders in Regina in 2008 Nick?
Stoon,
To be clear, when I said “sizable,” I meant as large as it could be and still be within the boundaries of the law.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:08 PM
I would like to request that anyone who is agreeing that Saskatoon is a dangerous place to live to back this up with statements about when the last time they felt threatened or unsafe in the regular day to day lives.
The reality of physical crimes is that they are typically interpersonal and relationship based. Random physical attacks are very rare in any centre. This does not diminish the crime or excuse the crime – BUT to base whether to live in a city based on interpersonal crime – ignores the underlying issues of physical crimes.
If you base your argument of how safe a city is on property crime – (which is typically non-personal and random) that would make far more sense.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:11 PM
Pam,
I thought Dave Scharf wrote an interesting blog (short but thoughtful) on the “dangerous” story.
http://tinyurl.com/csoj9u
April 13th, 2009 at 3:21 PM
Stoon and Norm,
I personally think you two having a posted bet or real estate draft would make this blog more interesting….It could be made legal, similar to an authorized hockey draft that runs the same time as the NHL playoffs.
Just an idea but it would be entertaining.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:22 PM
Does anyone have a link to find information on the crimes per area in Stoon? People I speak to around the city always generalize the “alphabet avenues” and other west side areas as being home to a strong majority of the crime. Wonder if that is actually true?
For the demographics of the people commiting the crime, stats on our prison population would conclude that. Those would be intersting to see as well.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:23 PM
Who is this new Norm{space}Fan impersonating me?
Norm – you have more than one fan, apparently. Well deserved.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:23 PM
Potential Buyer
“Does anyone have a link to find information on the crimes per area in Stoon?”
http://www.police.saskatoon.sk.ca/index.php
There is a section on community crime stats – where you can pick the neighbourhood. This does not appear to report major crimes. But, property crimes are listed.
Norm,
Thanks – interesting blog. When Scharf says “And, if you do it’s probably reflective of the neighborhood that you are living in.” And I would add that it is probably even more reflective of WHO you live with.
Yes – we should all be doing more to assist people who are living in violent homes and communities. And I’ve been lucky enough in my professional life to meet not tens, but hundreds of Saskatoonians who are working to make EVERYONE’s lives safer.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:27 PM
Potential Buyer
Further link to Central Division with information about major crimes:
http://www.police.saskatoon.sk.ca/pdf/Monthend_Summary_Report_for_December_2008.pdf
April 13th, 2009 at 3:27 PM
“There is a section on community crime stats – where you can pick the neighbourhood. This does not appear to report major crimes. But, property crimes are listed.” – Pam
Thanks for the info Pam.
Based on the months and areas i checked, it looks like the west side definitely has an insane amount more property crime.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:27 PM
Well, I had my predictions for 2009 all ready at the end of December, but sadly I was disappointed.
I’d be willing to go for a friendly wager to see who’s closer, with our good host officiating, of course.
You game, Stoon?
Captcha= high-level legal
April 13th, 2009 at 3:28 PM
Vinny,
“One of my friends from Edmonton just moved here and can build a 2000ft two storey in New Brighton , no garage, for 330k.”
Does this include the lot or just construction costs?
April 13th, 2009 at 3:28 PM
Saskatoon has led in total violent crimes for 2 straight years.
Back when Saskatoon led in murder (9 of them?) the excuse of small size = big per capita made sense. I bought that murder is not a good measure of dangerousnous, as it’s so uncommon. I’ve always argued the violent crime total is the big deal. And with over 1,600 /100,000, the well over 3,000 aggravated assaults, rapes, robberies etc. persist and can’t be explained by small size.
Surprising though places like Quebec can be twice the size and have 0 murders…
Fear based marketing keeps people here.
When the truth is Saskatoon is Among the Most Expensive and Most Dangerous places in Canada to live.
How about Ottawa for safe federal jobs?
Significantly cheaper housing?
And significantly lower crime?
And as far as murder being signficant?
2007 – Saskatoon, 206,000 people 9 murders
Ottawa, 1,000,000 people 14 murders
I don’t think it is, can’t call Saskatoon Canada’s most dangerous city based on 9 crimes. But based on 3,200 total violent crimes? And when it was so far above the rest of the pack, at least being top 3 for violent crime in 2008 is a guarantee.
Tough to keep people in Saskatoon, when any where else in Canada is safer, most are cheaper and many pay more…
April 13th, 2009 at 3:29 PM
Regina had 7 murders in 2008
2 less than Saskatoon’s 9 in 2009
April 13th, 2009 at 3:29 PM
“Fear based marketing” is a good way to describe how Saskatchewan keeps its young here! We always hear how bad every where else is. When it comes to affordability, the grass really is greener everywhere else, especially October to April
April 13th, 2009 at 3:29 PM
NormFan,
“Who is this new Norm{space}Fan impersonating me?”
Becoming kind of a common name.
Bless you.
Pam,
“When Scharf says “And, if you do it’s probably reflective of the neighborhood that you are living in.” And I would add that it is probably even more reflective of WHO you live with.”
I expect that’s probably true. How sad.
“And I’ve been lucky enough in my professional life to meet not tens, but hundreds of Saskatoonians who are working to make EVERYONE’s lives safer.”
That’s all your gonna say? Sounds interesting.
Nick,
All violent crimes are “significant” but nothing tops murder for consequence or permanence. Yes, 2007 was not a good year but Saskatoon had just two murders in 2008. According to my math, a person was roughly three times more likely to be a victim of homicide in Regina last year. That doesn’t sound “slightly safer” to me.
Crikey,
“I’d be willing to go for a friendly wager to see who’s closer, with our good host officiating, of course.”
If you are willing to craft the rules, I am willing to officiate.
Potential Buyer and Stoon,
“I personally think you two having a posted bet or real estate draft would make this blog more interesting.”
Assuming it’s legal, I would wager $1,000 in favour of Stoon’s charity of choice if we reach an average selling price of $310,000 in the residential category, as reported by SRAR for April, May or June 2009. $1,000 payable to mine by Stoon if we fall short of that number. Second thought, I’ll sweeten the offer and consider myself the loser if the average exceeds $300,000.
Stoon,
Sound like fun?
April 13th, 2009 at 3:30 PM
Further to my last comment, any humble bowing for your “wisdom and foresight” would require an average sale price of $310,000 as predicted by S’toon. There’s no point in getting silly now.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:30 PM
Surprise inflation offers hope
Consumer prices showed some surprising signs of life in February, dispelling fears of deflation gaining a foothold in the Canadian economy – at least for now. Prices rose 1.4 per cent from a year earlier, driven by higher food and shelter costs, Statistics Canada said Thursday.
http://tinyurl.com/c78vyv
April 13th, 2009 at 3:30 PM
My prediction for Q2 average price was $287,000 (end of Q1 prediction was $281,300).
How about we split it down the middle, Stoon: if the average price is above $298,500, you win the bet, and if it’s below, I do. Nice and simple.
I’ll let Stoon propose the nature of the wager.
Game?
April 13th, 2009 at 3:30 PM
According the budget, the Sask government is predicting 11,500 new jobs are to be created in Sask. this year. Wow, staggering if it comes true.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:31 PM
What happened to some of the predictions of 220,000 by spring that were thrown around last November or so? Anyone still throwing those out?
April 13th, 2009 at 3:31 PM
Mark,
I don’t remember what number I had said, 250k? for spring if interest rates and the economy stayed the same.
The economy here is doing very well comparatively speaking (to other provinces) but I did not think interest rates would get this low. Now a person can buy a bigger home with a lower monthly payment compared to the fall.
Low rates for the next while (couple years?) will keep prices from dropping as much.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:34 PM
Peter,
330 is including lot and taxes. When i say “here” I mean Calgary. you won’t find a pre-owned home of that size for much under 400 even in that area here. Of course once you are actually in non-boonie territory houses cost more than that here.
“dangerous city”. Having lived in Regina until I was 28 I would say that is a good laugh. Never did I ever feel threatened in Stoon or Regina late at night. Yes, Stoon and Regina have more crime per capita but are you really worried about it there? There are weekly shootings in Calgary and several daily stabbings. Vancouver and Toronto are worse. Sure those are less per capita but it affects you and they are usually in places that people tend to go to (downtown). I never felt scared to honk at someone or give them the finger for bad driving in Regina (not that i do that lots
) , but you’d really better be careful in the bigger cities. Also, gotta be careful about looking at somebody the wrong way or turning your back to a panhandler. A coworker of mine was put in a coma when he ignored a panhandler here.
I have said this many times. Create more office jobs and I will gladly move back. But until I can financially support my family I will have to stay in Alberta.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:34 PM
Norm,
How are the listing v sales looking so far this week?
Thx!
April 13th, 2009 at 3:34 PM
Crikey,
The lawyers are advising that a “friendly bet” doesn’t likely bust any rules. Let’s see if Stoon ever comes back and then we’ll make some decisions.
Gordy,
I’ll guess that weekly listings will come in close to last week but I think we’re going to crack that 50 mark for unit sales.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:38 PM
U.S. House passes bill taxing AIG, bonuseshttp://news.sympatico.msn.ctv.ca/abc/home/contentposting.aspx?isfa=1&feedname=CTV-TOPSTORIES_V3&showbyline=True&date=true&newsitemid=CTVNews%2f20090318%2faig_vote_090319
It should have been “Go directly to jail, do not pass go and do not collect $165 million” for those clowns.
In other news, Metro Vancouver just recorded their 40th shooting in 2009 but it does not compare to crime riddled Saskatoon
Hey, just a thought, maybe the US government can send the AIG executives to the 9th worst crime filled city in the world (Saskatoon) for a week. If they make it back alive, that is their bonus:)
April 13th, 2009 at 3:38 PM
Gordy, are you Jason?
April 13th, 2009 at 3:39 PM
George,
Here’s the problem with the $135 million in AIG bonuses: that sum is only less than 0.1 per cent of the $183 BILLION that the U.S. Treasury gave to AIG as a “pass-through” to its counter-parties:
http://tinyurl.com/c29k5a
“AIG paid 12.9 billion to Goldman Sachs — where then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson had previously worked as chief executive — in the months after the insurer was rescued by the government last September.”
April 13th, 2009 at 3:39 PM
Crikey,
“Here’s the problem with the $135 million in AIG bonuses: that sum is only less than 0.1 per cent of the $183 BILLION that the U.S. Treasury gave to AIG as a “pass-through” to its counter-parties:’
How true, but you know what they say. “Give ‘em an inch…” People gots to know that when you bust the world you can’t have a bonus, even if it is a paltry $165 million.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:39 PM
Good news: less worry about deflation. Not-so-good news: we might be seeing the start of inflation (read: higher interest rates).
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1405308
George/Crikey, do you think they made a mistake by “jumping the gun” on that AIG legislation? I think many would have voluntarily returned the bonuses (some were starting to receive death threats), but now they’ll have grounds for a class-action lawsuit against the US government (the AIG bailout package authorized the bonuses specifically to avoid breech-of-contract).
Mark, you’re funny (wasn’t me, ie: not Gordy).
April 13th, 2009 at 3:41 PM
“People gots to know that when you bust the world you can’t have a bonus”
Too true! At a tactical level, there’s definitely something to be said for winning the smaller battles early and with gusto.
Jason,
I’m not guessing these people are long on insight or character, so no, I don’t think most of them would have voluntarily returned the bonuses, unless they thought it would affect their future employability somehow. Given the culture of entitlement there seems to be on Wall St., a class-action attempt wouldn’t surprise me, but I doubt it would be successful. People’s memories can be pretty long when their trust is destroyed.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:42 PM
“According the budget, the Sask government is predicting 11,500 new jobs are to be created in Sask. this year. Wow, staggering if it comes true.” – Mark
Yes I agree, there will be a lot of good things for our provinces future. I have recently read that the future potash mine near Jansen (BHP Billiton) will be the largest in the province.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:42 PM
“What happened to some of the predictions of 220,000 by spring that were thrown around last November or so? Anyone still throwing those out?” – Mark
I guess that shows that nobody can acurately predict the house prices.
For this year I’ve read end of Q2 predictions of:
Crikey- 287k
Stoon- 310k
Norm- 300k or less (going by his bet before Stoon backed out)
George’s earlier prediction- 250k but had 2 clauses (interest rates and economy)
Myself- no clue but I’ll say no change for a guess
What’s your prediction Mark?
April 13th, 2009 at 3:43 PM
Potential, are we going off the weekly average or 6-week average? Assuming the latter, I’ll go with $260k end of Q2.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:43 PM
Just curious on why there is so much banter over the crime thing. What if Maclean’s told us we were the safest city? Or the tenth most violent? The only thin that seems to be making our city unsafe is that maclean’s said so. (Not to discount the 3200 or whatever crimes, but as someone who has lived here for a good portion of their life, I feel no threats to my safety.) I would take our crimes any day over shhoting in other cities.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:43 PM
“What’s your prediction Mark?”
I truly have no idea. 240,000 wouldn’t suprise me, and neither would 300,000. There are just too many variables. Inventory on one hand – potential job growth and more immigration from people out east, low interest rates, etc on the other. And the mix of houses that sell can pull that average too, as we’ve seen.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:43 PM
Retail sales up slightly:
http://tinyurl.com/ddssbt
After declining in every province in November and December, sales rose in all provinces in January except for a 0.6% decrease in Manitoba. None of the increases offset the declines in December.
British Columbia (+3.1%) posted the largest gain, closely followed by Ontario (+3.0%) and Saskatchewan (+2.9%).
April 13th, 2009 at 3:45 PM
Just to be clear, retail sales numbers are down in all provinces YOY (down by 1.0 in Saskatchewan, the smallest decline of aggregate retail sales of any of the provinces/territories except for Nunavut). The improvements are month over month.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:46 PM
http://www.thestarphoenix.com/business/fp/story.html?id=1411246
Brad Wall pulling a Harper?
“Everything’s fine. Nothing is wrong. I am awesome.” (paraphrased)
April 13th, 2009 at 3:46 PM
The Saskatoon real esate market seems to be in acceptance and fear now. Denial would admit disagreement, but argue that “fundamentals” are strong. Now the real estate market is doing what ever it can to down play and ignore opposition. Agents don’t want potential buyers to realize the weakness of the market and have changed from fear based marketing to having buyers as uninformed as possible.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:47 PM
Always tough to tell if retail sales up is a good thing, or more consumers spending beyond their means? Think this has been mentioned on here before, but kind of true.
Wonder what the total dollar volume of a 1% increase is? Probably not 1/5 th of 5% drop in December spending!
April 13th, 2009 at 3:49 PM
Realist you’re a big cry baby.
Now keep providing me with links to use in posts I won’t post
(not really BT…)
April 13th, 2009 at 3:50 PM
Matthew,
You know what’s even funnier? How short a memory the NDP Party seems to have. I guess I’d point out that Brad Wall was sworn in as Premier of this province on November 21, 2007 following the largest run up in housing prices that this province had ever seen. Consider that in 2006 the average selling price of a Saskatoon home was $160,500. By April of 2007, the average selling price had reached $220,862. On April 26, then Premier Lorne Calvert was busy “taking credit for the surge in Saskatoon house prices” (http://tinyurl.com/cnzpdb) and gearing up for another “promote Saskatoon campaign” to bring new people to this province in spite of the fact that we had just 254 active real estate listings and shelters and the local campground were overflowing with homeless people. By the time Brad Wall was sworn in the average selling price of a Saskatoon home had exceeded $250,000.
I might disagree with Wall’s assessment that “Saskatoon is among the most affordable cities in Canada” but for goodness sake let’s get real about who should get the “credit” for that. Lorne Calvert claimed it back in 2007 and he was completely right.
Atkinson’s comments in this story are completely laughable (sorry Pat).
April 13th, 2009 at 3:50 PM
My goodness Nick. How many flippin’ names do you have and why are you raising hell all over the net?
Potential buyer,
“Norm – 300k or less (going by his bet before Stoon backed out)”
Right, but let me be clear that I’m definitely leaning to the “less” side. I used $300K on my offer to wager because Stoon said $310K. I thought giving him/her a $10K buffer was kind enough.
I definitely feel like lower interest rates and lower prices are continuing to make this market more attractive. I think I could find many listings that would be cheaper to buy than rent right now, so things could level out faster than I’m expected. That said, and assuming that current trends continue, I’m going to guess that we’ll be seeing a six-week average selling price in the range of about $260K (maybe even $250K) by the end of Q2. I know, I know. That’s 10 points below Crikey on my high guess and pretty much in George’s neighbourhood on my low one but that’s how it’s looking to me. I think we’ll take a big step in that direction as this month closes.
If I’m right, and long term mortgages are still available at or around 4%, don’t be surprised if you hear me saying, “Now is an excellent time to buy” and see Nick kicking me around the internet.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:51 PM
Im sticking to my $310K prediction!
April 13th, 2009 at 3:51 PM
Does any one have predictions on where the rental market will go in Saskatoon? There are lots of places for sale but it’s still really tough to find a place to rent.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:51 PM
That’s the spirit Stoon.
Renter,
I don’t know much about your end of the market but I suspect that some relief is on its way eventually. Not long ago there was some talk around here about rent increases being withdrawn. I don’t think rents are going up anymore, so that’s probably the first needed change.
I was mentioning to some colleagues today that I have approached a couple of my sellers and suggested that they might want to consider taking a renter. Two of them will enter into a property management agreement this evening. While I was raising this, a couple of others mentioned that they have at least one seller that would like to find a renter. Now, consider that today is the first day of spring and sellers are already talking about the rental market. Seeing some of our resale product go to the rental market would be good for both of those markets in my opinion.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:52 PM
3 names I guess, if you include first, middle and last?
You are right though Norm, nattering back and forth isn’t what The Bench should be about, and I’ve removed both Realtor’s and BT’s comments. Then I added a link to your Merrill Lynch story, as it showed up on my list of pages linked to our site while I was deleting comments and it was quite amusing
I do have to say I agree though, that the selective posting of comments on one’s site, it is a bit hypocritical to go and slander the opposition on another more inclusive site. It’s too bad you’re the inclusive forum. On that note, I will keep my own comments above the belt, and try to focus our site a bit more on Regina. Time to move on.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:52 PM
And Norm, you’re right I don’t think it’s the time to buy, as low interest rates are likely here for quite some time and with prices poised to drop quite acutely, I am predicting far better bargains to be had within the next year or so.
I think my prediction had been $240,000 for the end of 2009, so half way there from $280,000 would be $260,000 by the end of quarter 2.
I would agree that if a buyer can talk a seller down from their unrealistic price, such as a 10 to 15% under bid, or the purchase of an appropriately priced property (if such a thing does exist in Saskatoon at the moment) that now isn’t a bad time to buy. As interest rates may stay the same, but can’t go much lower.
And Norm, have I ever “kicked” you around another site?
April 13th, 2009 at 3:52 PM
Nick,
“And Norm, have I ever “kicked” you around another site?”
I was totally kidding. You’ve been nothing but fair with me.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:53 PM
Looks like a lot of the same on sale right now
Not much of a buyers’ market at all
April 13th, 2009 at 3:53 PM
It may be officially spring now, but there’s still a ton of snow on the ground, and i don’t think people are in the spring buying mode right now. Once the snow has melted, and the temp starts hitting +10 and above. People will get into that buying mode again. I think listing now is actually a bad idea as you property will most likely sit for while even if its listed at a good competitive price.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:53 PM
Nick,
I owe you an apology.
When I first read Realist’s comment, I assumed that it was you writing under an alias. Perhaps it was the reference to thebench. For that reason, I assumed that you had dropped another link on me after I’d asked you a couple of times not to do that. In reviewing the comment I can see that wasn’t the case.
You have every right to speak up where you disagree and you certainly have every right to defend yourself on your own territory.
I’m sorry.
April 13th, 2009 at 3:54 PM
It’d be interesting if somebody was going to wager, but since this seems unlikely it’s simply another round of predictions. Good times, I call $270,000 for Q2!
Is Captcha trying to tell me something?: $225 birds
Captcha is apparently the most bearish here. :’)
April 13th, 2009 at 3:54 PM
Norm I think it’s a fair comment from you. As I have never seen you on another sight spreading propaganda or adverstising etc. as we have seen many other realtors, including some stuff that looked near bot generated, and to be fair sellers of every product under the sun, I think you have a right to say no to personal battles on your site.
This was why when another nameless web site owner, who will not post comments that are not consistent with his site’s real estate boosterism, is on my site, insulting others, where he would not allow any opposition on his own site, or so said another poster on my site, even to solicitation from said site. Though this had been my experience weeks prior when I had tried to respond to some comments on that same site.
I took a page from your book and just wiped out both sides’ comments. Easier than deciding who is right. Though we both know who I think is in the wrong in this case.
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