Saskatoon prices should be expected to fall more you would think as they are currently the highest in the province and Saskatoon seems to have been the most over built and have the largest inventory of any Saskatchewan market

If Saskatchewan prices are down 2.7% it seems Saskatoon prices should be down at least twice that much.

Sales before prices, yes?

Price of homes expected to fall

http://tinyurl.com/qaysc3

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GCAN5YR%3AIND

The bond market is still in a major downtrend which hasn’t shown me any sign turning around. There’s massive resistance between 2 1/2 and 2 3/4 points. I guarantee that major lenders see this and won’t be too concerned until that level has been breached on a consistant basis.

I could possibly see the bond market testing that level only to be knocked back down again. Therefore mortgage rates rising slightly only to be discounted again shortly after.

IMHO

I wasn’t really thinking much at all. The weekly average is a bit noisy, but it might be interesting to see how the rolling average/median have developed over several years. I was just trying to understand what G was getting at, but not being very successful, I’m afraid. G, are you wanting to see several years worth of data on one X-axis?

“Do the weekly average, the six week average, and the four week median sale price have their own graphs with the last few years of data?”

No. I do have a weekly average going back to that start of ’07 but we’ve only done the others back to 1/1/08. You’ll probably recall that those were just added a few month back.

What were you thinking?

I think you’re absolutely right. Do the weekly average, the six week average, and the four week median sale price have their own graphs with the last few years of data? I apologize in advance if this has already been addressed somewhere.

Thanks for adressing the bond yeild issue- there has been a sharp selloff in recent weeks, but I’m not sure this will continue. There’s so many issues potentially affecting mortgage rates in the near future it’s tough to keep them straight!

You may have been perceived as being on the attack initially. The year-over-year discussion has been going on a long time and some people and it has often been misused, but it is an appropriate measure if the blanks are filled in.

Stocks, bonds and mutual funds always post a yearly return, but you’re right that they go back much further.

This post http://tinyurl.com/dyh3al contains the graphs you’re looking for, and you can expect to see them adjusted on a monthly basis in the future.

The weekly posts are intended to be a quick market snapshot, and not a long term analysis. With 156 data points for each year that’s represented I find the price graph to be a bit cluttered with just two years of data. I think if I introduced another nine lines it would be impossible to read.

http://www.normfisher.ca/images/teamblog/stats050909_avg.jpg

L.oki

Not sure why the need to insult? I am merely mentioning a CBC report about incentives. I think similar incentives have been mentioned here as well.

Norm: I am merely pointing out that if I look up stock prices, bonds or mutual fund prices etc…. I never see a year over year comparison. I seem to have hit a nerve with some ….sorry. You must admit that a year over year graph is far less dramatic than a graph which would have one, two or three years posted adjacent to one another.

Armoth: thanks but I do read the graphs. Suggestion….”seek to understand”.

Overall I think this site is the best blog I have seen however there are a few people who seem eager to attack whenever someone posts a comment or opinion they don’t completly agree with. Isn’t that what blogging is about….the freedom to post comments and opinions?

I just meant that the rate you see isn’t the whole story, but that you often only get to look at the fine print once you have the commitment documents in hand, so it takes some effort to even obtain this information, and then more to figure out if the lowest rate is really worthwhile. Sort of like shopping for airfare and cars.

Good point. There was some kind of a disclaimer on that little promise. Also, bond yields have been climbing for five consecutive weeks so there is probably some risk that fixed rates could increase sooner rather than later.

http://tinyurl.com/pja9u3

Last year around this time BOC said they were going to increase rates because of inflation. The very next month, sure enough they increased it. That was the last increase we have seen since.

If you are going to time it, i wouldn’t try to wait until the very end because it might start going up before you get a chance to lock in. The flip side is that the economy could stay dismal even longer and you end up with a low rate even longer than just next year.

I think there are pretty strong disclosure requirements on lenders and brokers today. With my last couple of mortgages I received some kind of a “disclosure statement” prior to signing which detailed terms, costs, pre-payment privileges and pay out penalties. I believe that’s a requirement today.

Crikey,

“They may still have their “hands full” with building homes in the entry- to medium-price range”

Apparently, they’re building them without permits as well because housing starts are down close to 90%.

“How much of the market are first-time buyers”

It’s hard to know for sure. I’m sure that segment is strong right now but our last ten transaction look like this. 3 move ups, 5 buyers moving to S’toon (all previous home owners), one seller moving out, one first-timer. These are our ends of the transaction. Definitely some first time buyers on the buyer end of our listings (2).

“The whole city looked dishevelled to say the least, with the roads in amazingly poor condition and dirt, dust, and garbage piled up on every street.”

The snow doesn’t melt here in February like it does where you live. It’s only been gone a month and it’s still freezing some nights.

I’ve heard from a property manager that there is downward pressure on residential rents. Moving is a drag, but your bro might want to look around. I expect he could probably do better. I’m at least certain that there are vacant units downtown that aren’t having much luck renting for $1200.

I would imagine there are quite a few first time buyers that are now entering the market when last year they were priced out forever. Funny, I did not know forever could mean a year. I don’t think there are many investors buying like the last couple of year. I think the sales numbers have a bigger % of first time buyers than the last while.

Low rates and house prices dropping are helping.

Oh dear. I’m not even sure where to start with Mr. CEO of the Homebuilder’s Association’s quote. They may still have their “hands full” with building homes in the entry- to medium-price range, but I’d wager this is largely due to people in this price range (first-time buyers) finding it easier to “afford” to purchase with our insanely low interest rates. Where would the market be if this wasn’t the case? Certainly you’d think he’d admit that sales in the medium to upper price ranges have slowed (and prices correspondingly have lowered) considerably due to *declining demand*.

Norm, How much of the market are first-time buyers, and has this shifted at all from previously? Are there fewer move-up buyers? I found this interesting little tidbit, but it may not apply to this market:

Home Sales: One and Done

It is TMG I’m going through. The best 5 year rate (3.49%) is with MCAP, but now we’ve decided to go with a variable at 3% instead (First National) since the BoC has promised to keep prime frozen until next year. Maybe by that time we’ll be able to get 3.25% fixed! :’) Good luck to you.

In fact, said Alan Thomarat, CEO of the Saskatoon and Region Home Builders’ Association, residential contractors have their hands full building homes in the entry- to medium-price range, a contributing factor in the slide of the price of new homes as reported by Statistics Canada on Monday.

Selling price of new homes falls in Saskatoon

Amroth… if it’s a long while, I’m sure you’ve thought about just paying up and getting out, but if it’s not too long, did you know that you may be able to do an early renewal with no penalty (typically within 120 days of maturity) with your lender? Just make sure they’re offering a competitive rate (mine wasn’t).

As for me, I’m probably going to go with a 1 year term only (2.9% with First National), despite some very tempting 5 year fixed rates, since I may be looking at moving out of the country for work, and mortgages don’t travel well. I’m hoping that by next year a variable will be worth thinking about again, but I’m not holding my breath.

Settle down….and read the graphs

At the spike in inventory,

Wowzers least the spike wasnt as bad as last years

Heather,

I hope you get a wonderful rate im stuck with my 5.49% for awhile ~cries~

I’m sorry but I don’t think I’m understanding what you’re getting at. My weekly post has a near 18-month price history showing every blip and valley and my monthly reviews cover as much as five-years. There are 50 some pages on this site that show a ten-year history.

When it comes to the general discussion, I just say what comes to mind. It might be unreasonable to expect me to recite the history of real estate prices every time I make a comment. I’ll assume you’re thinking about my comment regarding new house prices rising 45% in one year. Does that not provide some needed context when we’re talking about the past years declines?

Year-over-year is the most standard measure when it comes to real estate, and that’s true when prices are rising or falling. It removes all “seasonal” considerations from the equation and seems to be viewed as the most accurate measure of change. Certainly, year-over-year figures don’t always provide the full story and it’s important to fill in the blanks. Up until just a couple of months ago someone wishing to spin a distorted story could have claimed that prices were up. If they didn’t mention the “year-over-year” qualifier someone could be easily misled. Three weeks ago, the year-over-year numbers showed pretty much the full extent of the declines. Around here, you get week-over-week, month-over-month, quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year and everything in between.

Can you please explain why it seems like every time a realtor is mentioning increases the number quoted is the highest average price that was reached but when talking about declines I always hear the “year over year” figures. Why can’t we talk in terms of the highest price reached in Saskatoon compared with where we are now? No one thinks of their home worth one value in Feb and then another value in August….

PS: I heard on CBC one analyst thought the decline in Saskatoon was far greater than the 11-12% mentioned due to all the “incentives given out by new home builders (ie: finished basements, cars, upgrades etc…)