http://www.yattermatters.com/real-estate/vancouver-real-estate-heresy-unplugged/

I’m not sure what to make of the “assumptions” which the report makes but the researchers use of the Royal LePage House Price Survey data seems much more reasonable than it did at first glance.

Al Gore has made a lot of $ of his spin on global warming while it’s been reported that his “mansion” uses more energy per month than the average home in a year. http://www.snopes.com/politics/bush/house.asp His “Inconvenient Truth” is that he doesn’t practice what he preaches.

Thanks…I think. Good luck to you!

Watching,

I don’t recall the listing that you’re asking about. I participate in sharing of listing data with several local brokerages and agents so there is a lot of product which finds its way to my listing pages. I’ve searched the “sold” and “expired” listings on the MLS and can’t find anything that meets the description you’ve given. Sorry.

Happy We Stayed/Watching the market,

You can always take comfort in Merril Lynch’s report stating Saskatoon’s market is nearly 50% overvalued! LoL If we came to realize even HALF of that I’d be satisfied.

So like many, many others out there, I guess we will just sit and “wait and see”. However, during our process of searching and thinking, we have noticed that several of the homes we have been interested in have been reduced a fair bit….so we may not have to wait for all that long.

Norm, I have a question for you, a while back, we saw a property on your website in the Grovesnor Park area, a lovely character type home, completely reno’d for about 539,000…I noticed it was gone one day, and wondered what ever happened – it looked fab.

Love your blog…especially the long, numerous and usually hilarious comments that follow. Not to mention all the great information and stats that can be passed on, knowing that you are right on top of things as usual!

You make my night!!

That sounds a tad excessive. We were looking a few months earlier than that, and we found quite a bit about 300-325K for something halfway decent in a neighborhood that was livable (to us). Nothing fancy. Something decent in the neighborhood we’re in now, however, would have been priced well over $400K. We didn’t buy then, either. Way too out of whack with income/price ratios, which has traditionally been “around” 3x annual income, prior to the credit/debt party days. Today, people don’t seem to blink an eye at buying something well over 5x annual income, which is clearly unsustainable, particularly with the economy slowing. You clearly couldn’t expect prices to continue to rise ahead of incomes- how much debt can you expect people to take on? We quickly realized it had nowhere to go but south (did you see the average income doubling in 2 years?).

So, we wait. Just like a whole lot of other people, it seems.

check back in 2 years for Saskatoon house prices.

I’d bet that we lead or are close to the top for biggest percentage loss in that time frame.

Looks like the commodity bubble is popping following the Saskatoon real estate bubble.

Speculators are gonna get creamed in these two markets the next while. Some have already if they bought at the peak. It will take some time to play out.

House prices need to fall 10% more: BMO

http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=787746

The link to methodology is here.

http://www.realtor.org/research/research/ehsmeth

My assumption is that “closed” means “no longer conditional” but I’m guessing on that.

Could you tell me what “existing sales” means? I’m not being obtuse, really. Real estate is not my forte. Does this include pending sales or “got financing-took possession” sales? Does it include bank-owned properties and/or foreclosures?

The Western US certainly seems to be taking a disproportionate beating, but I suppose this is where much of the speculation was rampant. I find the fact that the state of California (if it were an independent state) reportedly has the 8th largest economy in the world to be truly frightening, considering the financial mess they find themselves in.

Thanks for the indulgence. I won’t talk about the US anymore (today).

From NAR’s website. I see July’s numbers have been posted since I last visited. They broke the developing trend being down .6% from the previous month.

http://tinyurl.com/5s4zof

Hey Norm,

Could you provide a link/info for this, please? From what I’ve been able to glean, sales may be rising slightly (large amount of foreclosure activity), but I haven’t heard anything about prices rising in the US.

Thanks!

“How Counter-Productive is Realtor Association Spin?”

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/03/how-counter-pro.html

http://www.slate.com/id/2199371/

I understand the concept of seasonality but I have no idea how “seasonal adjustments” are made.

Truth be told, this isn’t something that can be identified as a clear trend here in Saskatoon. Looking back over the last few years, I see sort of a slow gradual increase through the year (with some minor ups and downs) with prices often peaking in December for the year. Perhaps it’s because prices have traditionally been lower here?

I have noticed on the NAR website that they never compare this month to last month. Interesting that both the average and the median price of a US home has increased for six consecutive months but they still use the year over year comparison in their media releases. They use the “seasonality” explanation for that.

“Mark, you would know more about this than I would – what is your opinion on seasonality (ie. generally accepted real estate trends over the course of a given year).”

Whoops.

Change “Mark” to “Norm”. My mistake (sorry).

Norm, any comments on the usual seasonal trends in real estate?

I encourage you to look again at the data I linked to (especially the condo data, since it is usually considered a precursor to SFH activity). And for what I said about the more problematic underlying fundamentals – look at the absorption rate. Calgary’s problem is not going away anytime soon.

You’re trying to compare a number from last November to the current August number. Again, there is a seasonality to real estate prices. Read this link for a better understanding, it’s titled “Why houses cost more in the summer”:

http://www.slate.com/id/2199371/

If you want a true comparison of your “stable” prices, look at year over year, not random calendar month to random calendar month.

Again though, as someone who lives here, I encourage you to talk to someone on the ground (ie. someone trying to sell their house). Ask the person who’s cut their price $50,000 so far and still has no buyer interest if they think that prices are “stable”.

Mark, you would know more about this than I would – what is your opinion on seasonality (ie. generally accepted real estate trends over the course of a given year).

Don’t vote conservative. If you normalize every bit of persuasive nonsense out of BOTH sides’ campaigns, you’re left with the reality that conservatives hate people. The one thing Harper never talks about is his goals for the middle class.

I drive a lot for my job and I am plagued with guilt over how much fuel I use. The green taxes will start to put innovation and a gentleman’s concern back in the hearts of businesses’ today. Something that has been sorely lacking.

On the subject of real estate, Saskatoon has to return to normal prices. Even though we’re seeing prices drop now, there’s damage that we will be squaring up for the next ten years. The 0/40 mortgages will be sorting people out based on who paid too much for a house due to greed and who did not.

I’m hoping I won’t be in the worse of those two categories having paid 120k for my house. I hope that because I’m in Winnipeg – a more stable market – time will heal any risk I took.

The most important thing I said though: For the love of Canada, don’t vote conservative and gamble away everything you love about this country. They don’t stand for it. I don’t care who else people choose to vote for, but these greedy thugs are so transparent.

I want to be a millionaire

George,

Im heavily invested in the TSX and I bought some more BQI at 3.71 again even tho I said i wouldnt lol. Now every1 can watch me ride the wave of destruction har har

Personally I think Merryl Lynch will be a buyout target or fail and as for Citigroup they are too diversified to fail with all of their various spinoffs that could be sold to make up for write offs.

To All Bears,

Hope you buy some houses for the cheaps!

Your charts make my point exactly. Prices dropped in Calgary 10 percent last fall, but have been pretty stable since, throughout the worst of the inventory glut. A SFH average price was what 440,000 to 460,000 in November, December last year, guess what, 440,000 this August. As for median price, off about 2 percent through the course of 2008.

Seasonality? Inventory seems to grow through summer months in two previous years on your chart, only to drop off in the fall. This year inventory has been dropping through the summer. High in May, but lower in June, July, August. Different. Sorry, but prices in 2008 are sticking through all that inventory, give or take a couple percent. Can’t say what comes next.

It would make just an interesting paper on human behaviour and beliefs in groups. (or something to that effect)

Back to real estate for sure.