Saskatoon recorded its third consecutive annual improvement in affordability according to Demographia’s study. It moved from a median multiple of 4.3 in 2010 down to 4.0 by the third quarter of 2011 to re-enter the ranks of the “moderately unaffordable” for the first time since 2007.

Calgary, Montreal and Victoria also showed modest affordability improvements during 2011 while Halifax, Ottawa, Regina, Toronto, Vancouver, and Winnipeg all became less affordable.

Vancouver once again reined for the largest income to price gap in Canada. In that area it now takes 10.6 times median income to purchase a home priced at the median, up from 9.5 times just a year ago.

Click image for a larger view.

See the entire Demographia survey for 2012 and past reports for 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, and 2006.

*The median defines the centre point where half of all values are above and half are below that point. For instance, if the median income for an area were $50,000 then half off all income earners would earn more than that and half would earn less. In the case of home values, it’s the point at which half of all sales occur above the number, and half occur below.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

SASKATOON, January 12, 2012 – The Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Survey Forecast released today showed slight year-over-year price increases for all three housing types surveyed in Saskatoon.

Detached bungalows posted a modest gain of 0.9 per cent, selling for a fourth quarter average of $334,250, over the same quarter in 2010. Standard two-storey homes saw a 2.6 percent increase over the same quarter last year, selling for an average of $368,750. Standard condominiums sold for an average price of $232,333 – a 3.3 per cent year-over-year increase.

“Migration to the area continues to sustain Saskatoon’s balanced market,” says Norm Fisher, Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate. “In the fourth quarter we also saw a demographic shift. Although we see a range of buyers, typically the market is dominated by first-time buyers. In the fourth quarter, more established buyers took advantage of low interest rates to move-up from their previous homes.”

Fisher also noted that pockets of Saskatoon still had an ample supply of inventory and this led to the balanced conditions seen in the fourth quarter.

Nationally, despite calls in some quarters for Canadian house prices to soften in 2011, the market proved resilient as demand created by low interest rates and a relatively stable national economy created upward pricing pressure for all housing types surveyed. Further, recent high profile reports forecasting significant house price declines in 2012 are not supportable. In the fourth quarter, standard two-storey homes rose 4.2 per cent year-over-year to $375,427, while detached bungalows increased 6.1 per cent to $344,392. Average prices for standard condominiums increased 3.6 per cent to $234,680.

“In the recovery period following the 2008-2009 recession, I found myself repeatedly speaking of ‘irrational exuberance’ in the Canadian housing market,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive of Royal LePage Real Estate Services. “Expectations were too high and the pace of expansion unsustainable. With this report, I find myself in exactly the opposite position. Widespread calls for a major real estate correction in 2012 simply can’t be justified. The industry has significant momentum entering the year, and is buoyed by the stimulative effect of very low interest rates; we expect the market to continue to expand – albeit at a slower pace.”

Royal LePage expects average price growth to continue through 2012 and predicts national average prices to increase by 2.8 per cent by the end of the year.

Read the report titled, “Housing Evolution” here.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS® listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

Detached bungalows posted a modest gain of 1.9 per cent, selling for a third-quarter average of $335,000, over the same quarter in 2010. Standard two-storey homes saw a 2.5 percent increase over the same quarter last year, selling for an average of $358,750. Standard condominium sold for an average price of $235,000 – a 2.2 per cent year-over-year increase.

Prices in each of the three categories were affected by market supply, with an increasing number of higher-end properties being listed in the city. Supply was more balanced for condominiums and standard two-storey homes, resulting in slightly better returns for sellers in these categories.

“The supply of available homes in the most popular housing types has fallen in recent weeks, but we’re headed into some of our leanest sales months when demand typically starts to decline,” says Norm Fisher, Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate.

Fisher notes that August 2011 was the best August on record for the number of homes sold, which had a positive impact on total transactions for the third-quarter. “Our August numbers helped sales volume rise to 8 per cent over the five-year average,” said Fisher, “which may reflect the fact that Saskatoon continues to have a stronger employment scenario right now than many other cities.”

Nationally, the average price of a home in Canada increased between 5.7 and 7.8 per cent in the third quarter of 2011, compared to the previous year. The strength of home price appreciation in the third quarter defied expectations as very low interest rates buoyed consumer confidence in a comparatively stable Canadian economy.  Year-over-year gains appear deceptively strong in comparison to a weak third quarter of 2010.

“The strength in Canada’s national housing market conceals signs of predictable softening in some regions,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive of Royal LePage Real Estate Services. “The third quarter saw a return to a normal seasonal business cycle as price appreciation slowed in many areas – with some average values even falling slightly – after the busy spring trading season. A broader slowdown is expected in the months ahead but fears of a US-style correction are completely unfounded.”

In the third quarter of 2011, the national average price of a detached bungalow rose 7.8 per cent year-over-year to $349,974, while standard two-storey homes rose 7.7 per cent to $388,218 and standard condominiums rose 5.7 per cent to $239,300.

“To best provide Canadians with an accurate look at the housing market, Royal LePage uses year-over-year comparisons as the housing market follows a seasonal pattern. It is important to note that our 2011 third quarter results benefit greatly by going head-to-head with what was by far the previous year’s weakest period,” continued Soper.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS® listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

Citing an economy that “stumbled” through 2010 and deterioration of affordability that is worse than other regions of the province, the report calls for a slightly higher rate of price declines in Saskatoon than may be experienced nationally. TD is forecasting an 11.5 percent decline in unit sales and an 11.1 percent decline in the average sale price for Saskatoon.

Interested in learning more about the TD report? Read it here.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS® listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

The Royal LePage House Price Survey for the second quarter of 2011 has just been released. Here is the media release for the Saskatoon area.

Second-quarter house prices in Saskatoon experienced little change over the same period last year, according to the Royal LePage House Price Survey released today. Second quarter sales volumes remain stable because of increases in higher end single-family home sales and healthy competition for buyers in other categories.

Detached bungalow prices showed no change, selling for a second quarter average of $331,250. Standard condominiums sold for an average price of $242,000 – a year-over-year gain of 3.9 per cent. Prices for standard two-storey homes fell slightly by 0.5 per cent, selling for a second quarter average of $353,750.

Overall, Saskatoon’s flat price changes conceal a varied market performance for some housing types. As entry-level properties reached an affordability ceiling, upper-end properties witnessed a surge in the number of sales recorded.

“Saskatoon saw a 46 per cent increase in sales of single-family homes in the $500,000 plus market while other housing types such as standard condominiums witnessed a considerable drop in sales,” says Norm Fisher, Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate.

Inventories remain higher than normal across all housing categories and an increase in competition to attract buyers is helping to maintain price stability overall.

“We’re seeing a drop-off in the entry-level buyers as a result of new mortgage rules and affordability though more executives and expanding families are keeping the market strong,” explained Fisher.

Nationally, the residential real estate market saw sizable year-over-year price increases in the second quarter of 2011, but high house prices are concealing early signs of a moderating market. The market has seen its near-term peak in house price appreciation, and a slower second half of the year is expected. Still, by the end of 2011, the national average house price is expected to be 7.7 per cent higher than it was at the end of 2010.

“In many of Canada’s regional markets, we saw house prices appreciate at a significantly faster rate than wages and salaries, and this trend cannot continue indefinitely,” observed Phil Soper, president and chief executive, Royal LePage Real Estate Services. “We expect price gains to moderate considerably in the latter half of 2011, which should reduce the stress associated with purchasing a new home,” Soper said.

Average house prices in Canada continued to rise in the second quarter across housing types surveyed. The national average price of a detached bungalow rose 7.5 per cent year-over-year to $356,625; the price of a standard two-storey home rose 6.1 per cent to $390,163; and the price of a standard condominium rose 3.5 per cent to $238,064.

Read the Star Phoenix story here.

Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS® listings from all real estate brands with the most detail and information available anywhere. Check it out here.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

More from CREA’s release.

Steady sales activity combined with fewer new listings tightened the national resale housing market. The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of the balance between supply and demand, stood at 56.5 per cent in March. This kept the national housing market firmly entrenched in balanced territory, with March marking the firmest reading for national market balance in more than a year.

Based on sales-to-new listings ratios, more than half of local markets in Canada could be considered balanced in March, with two-thirds of the remaining markets considered to be as sellers’ markets.

Read the full release here.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS® listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

Saskatoon – Strong buyer demand offset by above-average inventory

The Royal LePage House Price Survey released today showed little year-over-year change in Saskatoon house prices. Sales activity was up year-over-year, but an above-average supply of listings tempered price increases.

Detached bungalow prices increased 0.9 per cent, selling for a first-quarter average of $331,250. Standard condominiums sold for an average price of $239,333 – a year-over-year gain of 0.4 per cent. Prices for standard two-storey homes fell 1.7 per cent, selling for a first-quarter average of $360,000.

“In the beginning of 2011, our inventory was 30 per cent higher than the same period last year although current levels sit at 20 per cent,” says Norm Fisher, Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate. “This has created significant competition among sellers.”

An over-supply of inventory helped create a buyer’s market, and Fisher believes mid-March changes to the mortgage rules helped boost sales by motivating first-time buyers to enter the market before the change took effect.

Nationally, low interest rates and a recovering economy continued to fuel activity in Canada’s housing markets over the past year, which has led to country-wide increases in average home prices. In the first quarter of 2011, the national average price of a detached bungalow rose 4.3 per cent year-over-year to $341,355, while standard two-storey homes rose 3.5 per cent to $379,388 and standard condominiums rose 4 per cent to $237,919.

“The rate at which Canadian homes are appreciating may well have peaked for the next year or so,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive of Royal LePage Real Estate Services. “We expect house prices will continue to creep up, but most of the excess demand created by the initial drop in interest rates has been satisfied, and affordability continues to erode slowly, allowing the listings supply to catch up.  In most markets, lower single digit percentage increases are more likely for the balance of the year.”

“Canada’s real estate market has maintained momentum coming out of 2010, indicating that the post-recession recovery is continuing,” Soper added. “While low interest rates continue to drive demand, the tepid pace at which employment levels are improving is tempering the rate of home price appreciation in many Canadian cities.”

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS® listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

It’s worth noting that the carrying costs for a typical detached bungalow in Canada required 39.9% of household income in the fourth quarter, significantly more than your lender would likely approve you for, but slightly less than what RBC says is the “long-term average.”

Here’s what the report has to say about Saskatchewan.

The Saskatchewan housing market finished 2010 on an enviable note. Home prices, for the most part, rose slightly in the fourth quarter, yet housing affordability improved for the second consecutive time. The provincial home resale market gained back solid forward momentum in the second half of last year (notwithstanding some softening in the final months), which contributed to re-establishing a stronger balance between demand and supply. Generally, the price increases in the fourth quarter more than reversed declines in the previous period but were too small to negate the beneficial effect of lower mortgage rates on affordability. The RBC Measures fell between 0.6 and 1.1 percentage points in the quarter, although the levels continue to be modestly above historical averages in the province. In our view, the Saskatchewan market will take its current affordability position in stride as a rebound in provincial economic growth, and, especially, continued strong migration inflows will support housing demand this year.

Read the full report here.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS® listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

The overview of the report argues the following points, and others.

• The now inevitable downturn in the housing sector will severely constrain economic growth over the next couple of years, as consumption expands at a more muted pace and housing investment shrinks back towards a more normal size. Economic growth will rely increasingly on business investment and net exports.
• Over the last several years, growth in consumption has far outstripped income gains, as households have gone on a spending binge, funded by credit growth and home equity extraction.
• With household balance sheets stretched and house prices expected to fall, however, we forecast that growth in consumption spending will lag income growth for the next couple of years, as households focus on rebuilding their saving rate.
• House prices have been growing rapidly for nearly a decade now and it has reached the point where housing is so overvalued relative to incomes that a downward correction seems unavoidable. We fear that house prices could fall by as much as 25% over the next three years.

The complete report from Capital Economics can be found here.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS® listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

Madani, in a report released this week titled, “Canada Economics Focus, house prices likely to fall for several years” says rising interest rates and near stagnant wage growth resulting from low inflation will cause housing affordability to deteriorate substantially in the years ahead taking values down an estimated twenty-five percent.

The report is an interesting read addressing some of the typical, “Can’t happen here because” arguments while taking a look at how such significant declines might effect the economy and Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

Read it here.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS® listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

Spurred in part by a decline in homeownership costs, Saskatchewan home buyers resumed house hunting in recent months with home resales in the province rebounding since August and reversing most of its slide in the first half of this year. The earlier softening of activity, nonetheless, had a linger- ing effect on home prices in the third quarter, which fell across all housing types relative to the second quarter. In turn, this lingering effect, along with lower mortgage rates, contributed to a significant improvement in affordability. The RBC Affordability Measures dropped between 1.8 and 2.2 percentage points, which was the most since early 2009. While lower than they were a year ago, the measures are still modestly above their long-term average, thereby suggesting to us that current market conditions are stretching homebuyers’ budgets to a degree. However, those budgets are likely to be boosted from a strong expected rebound in the provincial economy and, thus, family income this year and next.

Read the full RBC Housing Trends and Affordability study here.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS® listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

“Along with this slowdown in activity, we have seen a considerable increase in inventory compared to last year,” said Norm Fisher, Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate. “Buyers are not feeling a lot of pressure to act quickly right now, so demand is dropping off.”

Detached bungalows led the way with year-over-year price gains of 5.5 per cent, selling for an average of $328,750 in the third quarter. Standard condominiums sold for an average of $230,000, up 4.5 per cent from last year, while prices for standard two-storey homes were up 2.7 per cent year-over-year, selling for a third-quarter average of $350,000.

“It’s not clear why detached bungalows experienced the strongest price gains, however lower priced properties are always most in demand,” explains Fisher. “We’re beginning to see prices level off after peaking at the beginning of 2010.”

Detached bungalows and standard condominiums showed the greatest sales volume decreases for the third quarter, with single family homes under $400,000 down 30 per cent and condos under $250,000 down 25 per cent from last year. Multiple offers are rare, except when properties are priced below market value. Houses typically sold below asking price.

“With this softening of the market, sellers need to price their homes accurately,” says Fisher. “However, Saskatoon’s population is growing steadily as our employment rates are among the best in the country – so buyers are definitely out there.”

Nationally, Canada’s residential real estate market saw year-over-year growth in the third quarter as fears of a double dip recession or a housing bubble faded. House price appreciation slowed to a more modest five per cent in the quarter, which is historically typical of balanced real estate markets.

“Most Canadian housing markets cooled in the third quarter. In fact, the year is unfolding much as we predicted, with the unusually active first half of 2010 giving way to slower markets in the later part of the year.  Helped by very low rates in a competitive mortgage financing market, the third quarter was slightly stronger than anticipated, on new demand fuelled by improved affordability in many regions,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive, Royal LePage Real Estate Services. Looking ahead, it is very unlikely that the period from now to year-end can keep pace with the activity levels posted in the overheated market of the final quarter of 2009.”

In the third quarter, the average price of a detached bungalow in Canada was up 4.6 percent to $324,531, compared to a year ago. Over the same period, standard two-storey homes rose 4.4 percent to $360,329 while standard condominiums rose 3.9 percent to $226,481.

“House price growth now sits just below the long term annual average of approximately five per cent, but once this is adjusted for inflation, which is very low and expected to continue to be that way for some time, appreciation is right on track.  Canadian homeowners will be pleased,” said Soper.

Just last week, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released their preliminary housing starts data for September of 2010 which shows housing starts in Saskatoon increasing 45% for the month of September compared to the same month last year. Builders started construction on 191 units in the Saskatoon region last month. The year-to-date numbers are even more impressive, jumping to 1,755 from 780 at the same point in 2009 when housing starts were had fallen below long term averages.

This week, Statistics Canada released their New House Price Index that tracks price trends through August of this year. While prices remained steady in August, compared to July, they increased 3.8% from August of last year.

CMHC’s housing starts report is here.
Statistics Canada Housing Price Index is here.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

“If anything demonstrates the underlying health of the national housing picture, it’s the surge in sales of luxury properties this year,” says Michael Polzler, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “We know from experience that this segment of the market is usually the first to show pressure cracks when a market is softening- that has certainly not been the case this year, even during the summer slowdown.”

With the diminished risk of a W recession occurring, rebounding commodity and equity markets, and more positive economic data emerging daily, the outlook for the residential housing market has vastly improved over the past three months. Yet, markets are expected to record softer sales activity in the final quarter of the year, in comparison to the same period in 2009.

The media release is here.

The full report is here.

Coverage from the Globe and Mail is here.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

This is not your typical CMHC report. Rather, it’s an extensive review of the “state of Canadian housing” that goes well beyond a basic market update. In fact, the market update component is relatively small and looks back to 2009. Certainly, you’ve “been there, done that.” What you’ll find in this year’s Housing Observer is a pretty exhaustive presentation on the following seven topics that I pulled from the table of contents of the report.

Housing and the Economy
Housing Finance
Current Market Developments (if you can call 2009 current)
Demographic and Socio-economic Influences on Housing Demand
Recent Trends in Housing Affordability and Core Housing Need
An Exploration of Alternative Measures of Housing Need
The Equilibrium Initiatives

Download and read the report here.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS® listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

Royal LePage’s House Price Survey for the second quarter of 2010 was released this morning. Here is the release for the Saskatoon area.

SASKATOON, July 7 /CNW/ – The Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Survey Forecast released today showed solid price increases across most housing types surveyed in Saskatoon. Price gains were strongest for the city’s most affordable homes while above-average inventory levels for higher end homes is leading to a buyer’s market in this segment.

Standard condominiums led the way with year-over-year price gains of 6.3 per cent, selling for an average of $232,833 in the second quarter. Detached bungalows sold for an average of $331,250, up 6.1 per cent from last year. Standard two-storey homes were also up, gaining 5.4 per cent year-over-year, and selling for a second-quarter average of $355,000.

“Standard condominiums experienced the strongest price gains because of affordability,” said Norm Fisher, Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate. “First time buyers are trying to get into the market before interest rates go up.”

After peaking in April, sales volume for the second quarter is down approximately 6 per cent over last year with declines accelerating towards the end of the quarter. Bidding wars are rare, and are typically selling below asking price.

“Predictions of a softening market – in terms of the number of homes selling – are starting to come true,” says Fisher. “Sellers need to be aware of that, and price their homes properly.”

This mirrors Royal LePage’s national forecast, which predicts Canada’s residential real estate market will start to slow in the second half of 2010 after two quarters of strong price appreciation and sales activity. While market fundamentals remain strong across most major centres in Canada, sales activity was overly ‘front-loaded’ in the first half of the year and is expected to cool off for the third and fourth quarters. Prices are also expected to steady in the second half of the year.

“We have seen an unusual pattern of activity in the housing market over the past 12 months, with the market experiencing a surge of activity and price increases that peaked in the fall of 2009 rather than spring.  Early 2010 has followed a more typical seasonal pattern with prices and activity peaking in the second quarter,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive, Royal LePage Real Estate Services. “An expected increase in the supply of homes on the market will now bring stabilization in prices and in some cities we will see both prices and unit sales decline towards the end of the year. This should not be interpreted as a severe correction but rather a natural reaction to the market having peaked quite early this year.”

The surge of activity in the first and second quarters of 2010 corresponds to a number of significant regulatory and financial industry changes that affected homebuyers over the same period, including an increase in interest rates in the spring, tightening of mortgage lending rules for first-time homebuyers and investors, and the lead up to the introduction of the HST in British Columbia and Ontario.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

So, how will home prices be impacted?

“We estimate that at their peak in the first half of the year, average home prices will be roughly 15% overvalued when benchmarking against long-term economic fundamentals, such as income growth. If our forecast unfolds, roughly a third of this excess would be unwound by the end of 2011, leaving our estimate of valuation at roughly 10% above fundamentals, back to what it was in late 2007. As in our last forecast, we still expect the bulk of the readjustment to occur over a medium-term time frame of 2-3 years whereby average home prices rise roughly at the rate of inflation-after having climbed by over 8% annually over the last 8 years. Meanwhile, household incomes will be allowed to catch up and close the gap, which is concentrated in the country’s most expensive markets (e.g. Toronto, Vancouver).”

The bottom line?

TD expects to see the average price of a home in Canada to reach $349,000 in 2010 and moderate to $339,700 through 2011 when unit sales are expected to post a 10-12% decline. They expect prices to drop in seven of ten Canadian provinces and predict that the Prairie Provinces will post “meager” gains over the same period. TD says the average price of a home in Saskatchewan will finish 2010 at $242,000 and rise to $245,000 through 2011.

While TD is predicting national price declines that are nearly twice those called for by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), their predictions paint an optimistic picture given the amount of bubble talk we’ve heard over the past couple of months. TD economists believe that a quicker and stronger than expected economic recovery, and credit markets which will remain favourable by historical standards, will keep Canadian housing from the crash that some are predicting.

There does seem to be a couple of points of consensus amongst those who regularly comment on the nation’s real estate market. Demand is going to drop and home prices are likely to follow.

Phil Soper, chief executive officer for Brookfield Real Estate Services, owner of Royal LePage and le Capitale is quoted in a Globe and Mail story today. “It’s likely too conservative, but they (CREA) have the direction right,” he said. “Affordability is eroding in Canada, and higher prices and more expensive mortgages will push people out of the market quite quickly.”

Read TD’s report here.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions. All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

The big bounce in resale activity that took place during the spring and summer of 2009 in Saskatchewan showed signs of letting up late in the year, just as more properties were listed for sale. This put a damper on price increases recently, which allowed affordability to improve further in the province. In the fourth quarter of 2009, RBC measures fell between 0.1 and 1.1 percentage points (for condominiums and townhouses, respectively), in most cases extending the sharp declining trends since about the middle of 2008. Nonetheless, the cost of home-ownership remains historically high in Saskatchewan, with the unprecedented surge from late-2006 to early-2008 only partly reversed. This might not be cause for concern, however, considering that housing prices that prevailed prior to the boom were likely depressed by unfavourable migration flows, which have since turned around.

Housing affordability in Saskatoon also improved, though far more modestly when compared to the whole province.

Read the full report here.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Real estate geeks can follow our daily updates on Twitter @norm_fisher.

Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

In Saskatchewan, a more balanced market will be driven by continued population growth, CMHC predicts. They expect the province’s numbers to grow by ten thousand in 2010 and 2011, a combined result of positive inter-provincial and international migration. CMHC sees single-family housing starts in the province reaching 3,150, up from 2,829 in 2009, and MLS sales growing to 11,500 from 10,856 last year. “Considerable choice” will see price growth of resale homes moderate as they gain just 2.3% to reach $239,000.

In Saskatoon, single-family home starts will rebound from 1,101 to 1,200 this year following a 7.6% decline in the New Housing Price Index in 2009, the report predicts. MLS sales numbers will increase to 4,100 from 3,834 and the average resale price of a Saskatoon home will see a marginal increase from $278,895 last year to $285,000 through 2010.

Read the full report here.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Real estate geeks can follow our daily updates on Twitter @norm_fisher.

Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

Other tidbits from the Saskatoon section of the report include the following:

• While sales are still off of last year’s numbers average prices continue to edge up.
• Balanced conditions characterize the market overall.
• Rising demand could create a “tightening of supply” in the single-family home inventory.
• Multiple offers have re-emerged in prime “hot pocket neighbourhoods” but remain the exception.
• First time buyers account for the “lion’s share” of activity.
• A “good selection” of condominiums still exists.
• Buyers remain cautious, as do developers
• Speculation is virtually “non-existent” in the Saskatoon market.

The report provides market opinions provided by Remax brokers in 16 major Canadian markets including Remax Saskatoon. Read the full report here.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Real estate geeks can follow our daily updates on Twitter @norm_fisher.

Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

The following chart shows the changes in affordability levels in some of Canada’s most active real estate markets over the past five surveys. Click the image for a larger view.

I was a bit surprised to see that affordability at a national level really hasn’t changed significantly in the past five years. Canada’s “median multiple” comes in at 3.7 years, up from the lows of 3.1 in Q3/2007 but just slightly higher than the 3.6 years in Q3/2005.

Vancouver “wins the gold medal” as the most severely unaffordable housing market in the world requiring 9.3 times to median household income, an increase of almost a year in just twelve months time.

See the entire Demographia survey for 2010 and past reports for 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Real estate geeks can follow our daily updates on Twitter @norm_fisher.

Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

In Saskatoon, standard condominiums sold for an average of $217,000, up 5.9 per cent from the same period last year. Detached bungalows sold for an average of $310,500, up 3.5 per cent year-over-year, and average standard two-storey home prices increased by 3.0 per cent year-over-year to $338,750.

“At this time last year, Saskatoon’s real estate was hitting the bottom of the market,” said Norm Fisher, Sales Manager for Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate. “Resale activity is up across the board, and higher house prices are supported by lower inventory and increased demand, especially for entry level properties.”

“Condos are big movers. In 2009, interest rates went down and entry level homes came into high demand. Condominiums less than 1200 square feet are up dramatically in terms of unit sales in the last half of 2009,” added Fisher.

Canada’s residential real estate market is forecast to remain unusually strong through the first half of 2010 as economic conditions across the country improve and the stimulus impact of low interest rates continues to stoke demand, according to today’s Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast and House Price Survey.

“The Canadian real estate market enters 2010 with considerable momentum from an unusually strong finish to the previous year,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive, Royal LePage Real Estate Services. “The stimulus effect of low borrowing costs has contributed to a sharp rise in demand that has driven activity levels to new highs. This demand, coupled with a typical seasonal under supply of homes for sale, should cause home prices to continue to appreciate significantly during the early months of the year. Improving supply as the year unfolds and easing demand as the cost of home ownership rises should moderate home price increases in the second half of 2010.”

Regions that saw the strongest declines during the recession are now showing marked gains. Those regions include Toronto and the Lower Mainland, B.C.. Vancouver in particular experienced a robust quarter, with home prices rising across all housing types surveyed.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Real estate geeks can follow our daily updates on Twitter @norm_fisher.

Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

“With sales on the rise and listings trending down, the sales-to-active listings ratio is trending up. The seasonally adjusted ratio has risen on a monthly basis for six consecutive months. Although the ratio is rising, the market characteristic is still indicative of a buyer’s market. Increasing sales and falling listings will result in a continuing trend toward a balanced market in the coming months.”

A summary of CMHC’s forecasts for 2009 and 2010 follows.

Read the full report for Saskatoon here.
Read CMHC’s national housing report here.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Real estate geeks can follow our daily updates on Twitter @Norm_Fisher.

Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

“Since bottoming out in April 2009, prices have stabilized,” says Norm Fisher, Sales Manager for Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate Ltd. “Average buyer discounts in Q3 ranged from 3.5 to 4.5 per cent, showing buyers and sellers are making reasonable negotiations.”

Inventory is at 58 per cent of last year’s levels so homes are moving quickly. “Unit sales are through the roof,” Fisher says. “We’re hitting near record unit sales for most housing types. Overall unit sales in Q3 were up nearly 50 per cent over the same period last year.” Lower priced condos are moving faster than in Q2, but unit sales for condos in the $300,000 to $350,000 range are down year-over-year.

Although some single family homes priced below $350,000 are generating multiple offers, buyers are typically cautious. “The current Saskatoon market isn’t like the boom period of 2007,” he says. “We had a rally in the first quarter of 2008, then the market flattened out.”

Selling for an average of $291,000 in Q3, west side detached bungalows are the only housing type that showed a year-over-year price increase. Overall, lower priced homes have depreciated less than more expensive homes.

Overall Canada’s housing market appears to be on the road to recovery, but despite the strength of the market in the third quarter, giving the appearance of a surge in real estate activity, Royal LePage cautioned that sales are actually lagging approximately one month behind the typical seasonal pattern in year-to-date analysis.

“The economic recession interrupted the flow of the real estate cycle but it is essentially back on track,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services. “There is the illusion of a boom in the market, but in fact what we are experiencing is the end of a normal, short-term correction. Once housing supply returns to normal levels, we believe the economy will support low pricing growth into 2010.”

Click the image for a larger view.

Royal LePage House Price Survey chart for Canada

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Real estate geeks can follow our daily updates on Twitter @Norm_Fisher.

Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate