Ease up on that “especially those out west” thing!

We’ve already got enough blood on the streets to keep the Red Cross fixed for years.

Never mind the house prices tanking. Think of all the extra tax we’ll be paying for the Olympics. Together this makes for a big “ouch”.

You did say you were buying extra tickets just to help your western buddies out a jamb. Weren’t you giving them away as prizes to your readers. Thanks for helping out. We’re on our way becoming a have not province. “Buddy – got a buck for a Bucks?” :>))

So he makes thousands lose their homes leveraging all their eggs in one basket but he saved the 10 people he just barely didnt get destroyed by his advice their homes 8 years later. Wow he must be the greatest guy ever im gonna go buy his book right now!!11!1!

Between 1990 and 2008 Alberta’s population grew by 1,000,000 +, basically the same as the entire current population of Saskatchewan.

1990 2.5 Million

2008 3.5 Million

So, with similar house prices, and Alberta with bigger wage AND job gains, which province is really “boom”ing?

The one that gained One Million?

Or the one that has held steady at One Million for 20 years… and has hundreds of vacant properties for sale … maybe suggesting Saskatoon, not growing so much, just a lot of renters got kicked out and prices got jacked up for a year and a half.

Seems funny that Alberta with wages that much higher, taxes that much lower, and growth equal to our entire population justifies a house price the same as Saskatoon…

thebench.ca

Yes, but you might very well freeze!

What we do know is that the US is working like crazy to fix this economic mess and if they succeed, we will see another 20-30 years of “progress” that will only be limited by the scarcity of resources and political instability in other distant lands.

It is possible that the US may come out of this recession in 2010, making the Canadian version short and thus not disrupting RE prices as much because commodities will rebound and the Sask Economy will remain strong and thus attracting people into the province, which keeps home demand from collapsing.

On the flip side, if the US fails, we are headed for a depression and prices will probably collapse and most people on this forum will be unemployed and will not care much about RE prices.

Either way, the best place to be in the world in my view is right here in Saskatchewan. At least you will not starve to death here

“Hmmm, why do they think Toronto will escape unscathed?”

Because the people who write these things own homes in Toronto. In fact, Toronto is taking one of the more brutal beatings. I believe their units are down better than 50% for a few months now. Does seem a little optimistic to think that prices may actually increase there next year.

Hard to call that a “boom” and surprising housing construction couldn’t keep up with a net increase of Zero over 20 years…

“Saskatoon

Start date (Oct. 1999): $110,195

Peak: (June 2008): $310,386

Current: (Oct. 2008): $285,310

Predicted: (Oct. 2009): $169,480

”

1999 = $110,000

2009 = $170,000?

Could be, actually still a respectable increase in value considering the low sales volume, high inventory, economic uncertainty, plummeting oil prices and commodities all on the way down.

To put it another way, if you told some one in Saskatoon in 1999 that their then $110,000 house would be worth $170,000 in 2009, despite a global economic down turn, and big lay off at Cameco and Potash Corp, and a whack load of housing inventory, I think most people would be happy with the $60,000 gain.

$20,000 or $5,000 a year (of $150,000) is about a 3% annual increase in prices. Really, ignoring the speculation driven “boom” with similar (worse) fundamentals and looking at the starting point, maybe not so unreasonable after all?

Thanks for digging that up. Fun times debating affordability with the Premier. Oh well, we all know who still has his job.

“I was expressing concerns about affordablity to the media before 2007 wrapped up and I understand the benefits of affordable housing for everyone.”

Yes, you’re absolutely right- in fact, way before 2007 wrapped up. Here’s a Star-Phoenix article from the spring 2007 with you talking about the impact of the rapid run-up in prices affecting affordability.

http://tinyurl.com/7og9w8

As far as that recent FP article goes, there has been quite a bit of information out there as early as 2002-2003 that a housing bust in most industrialized countries was in the works, but not much in terms of predictions that Canada was going to specifically track a U.S.-style housing bust. There’s Schiller, but this was reported in early October of this year, so I’m not sure how “predictive” it actually was. The writing was clearly on the wall by this point:

http://tinyurl.com/74bbs3

“I think the lack of financial restraint is best illustrated here.”

That is too funny. Looks like a better house than mine. Definitely worth more.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081205.reMays1205/BNStory/

A reader poll on housing predictions for 2009 might be interesting…

Didn’t mean to to totally ignore your last question, but I’m definitely going to skirt it. Week in review will be posted before noon tomorrow. It was not the week I thought it might be.

“Norm, David Wolf’s (Merrill Lynch) numbers (up to a 50% overvaluation in Saskatoon) are reasonable, and a slightly better scenario than those proposed in the Financial Post.”

Sorry, I seem to be having some trouble communicating today. When I said I wasn’t aware of anyone actually making this “prediction” I was thinking more of Canada following the U.S. as suggested in this article. I am aware of David Wolf’s “50% overvalued” assessment for Saskatoon.

“I believe that all economic and financial models are being heavily influenced in unpredictable ways by world markets, and as a result, I think this makes it extremely difficult to make accurate predictions.”

This is certain. While I have a hard time imagining that the average might come down $110K in a year, I would never say that it’s not possible. As Bookrat pointed out in another thread nobody would have believed house prices would spike the way they did here if you’d have suggested it back in 2006. I am completely open to theories that predict western economies could crumble completely. I think we’re probably far more screwed than most of us realize.

“You meant “2008″, yes?”

No, I meant 2007. I’m pretty sure that I was quoted in the SP expressing concerns about deteriorating affordability by summer of 2007. I certainly published a number of “affordability” posts here during 2007.

I believe that all economic and financial models are being heavily influenced in unpredictable ways by world markets, and as a result, I think this makes it extremely difficult to make accurate predictions.

After all, wasn’t Canada supposed to narrowly avoid a recession next year…? Ultimately, I think a lot of these “theories” are (unfortunately) going to turn into hard and fast predictions after the fact.