Canada’s housing boom has ended for the second time since Douglas Porter; deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns officially declared it “over” in mid-April. Stay tuned for further endings as we move through summer and into the fall. :)

In a report released this week by TD Economics, economists Craig Alexander and Pascal Gauthier said, “The long-awaited end of the Canadian housing boom has occurred, reflecting more moderate demand and increased supply of properties for sale.”

In May, year-over-year price gains for existing home sales in Canada’s major markets fell to 1.1%, down from 8.6% just four months ago.

The report says that the cooling market is “nowhere as evident as in Alberta, with prices continuing to fall this year by eight to ten per cent from their peak.”

“The combination of significantly higher listings, reflecting the desire of homeowners to take advantage of the past increase in prices, and weaker demand, due to the past erosion in affordability, are leading to declining sales and softer price performance across the country, particularly in the west.”

“…Saskatchewan’s major markets offer an exception to the cooling trend on an annual basis, but this is mostly a question of timing. The price surge above 30% growth came late last year and much of the momentum is being carried into this year. But, if Regina and Saskatoon follow the path just recently threaded by Calgary and later Edmonton – and we think they will – Saskatchewan’s price growth will have come back down to earth by early next year. We are looking for 2-3% price growth in 2009, with a risk of a mild price correction.”

Not to be outdone, BMO economist Douglas Porter was quoted as saying, “Hey, I called it first!”

Well, not really, but he did throw this little gem forward in an interview with the Globe and Mail on June 27.

“It’s a bit unnerving to see how Canadian performance is beginning to look like that of the U.S. two years down the line.”

As disturbing as it is to see a “deputy chief economist” write reports in Comic Sans font, you have to admit that his graph is rather compelling.

“There is a litany of reasons why the Canadian market is different, but even a pale version of what we saw in the U.S. would not be good news,” said Porter.

The First “End” of Canada’s Housing Boom

TD Economics – Canada’s Housing Boom Comes to an End

Star Phoenix – Canada’s housing boom ends

Star Phoenix – National housing boom has come to an end

Globe and Mail – Housing Drop Looming in Canada?

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Follow our daily updates on Twitter @SaskatoonHomes.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Vidorra

Jason Warick wrote a story in the June 26 edition of the Saskatoon Star Phoenix titled, ”Sask. residents find Arizona opportunity.”

“The strong Canadian dollar, combined with rock-bottom prices for real estate in many cities such as Phoenix, means Canadians can snap up vacation homes or investment properties for less than half of the price of just one year ago. That’s attracted Saskatchewan buyers in droves.”

Two of my favourite Phoenix Realtors were quoted in the story.

Jay Thompson, also known as the Phoenix Real Estate guy writes about the article here.

Jonathon Dalton, the only “guest blogger” I’ve ever hosted here had this to say about his contribution to the story.

If you were considering a real estate purchase in the Phoenix area I would gladly vouch for either of these guys to treat you right and look after your interests.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Follow our daily updates on Twitter @SaskatoonHomes.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Vidorra

Though almost everything that could be said about this topic has already been said, I thought I’d better bring the latest news release from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) to the front page, lest I be accused of covering up the bad news. :)

In a press release issued Friday, CREA notes that new listing records have been set in Saskatoon for two consecutive months. May saw new listing activity reach 1,015 units compared to 706 properties that were listed in May 2007. Saskatoon’s total active listings inventory grew to an all time high of 1,154 properties by the close of May.

In an interview with Joanne Paulson of the Star Phoenix, CREA economist Gregory Klump describes recent changes as a “very dramatic evolution of the market.”

“The price increases that Saskatoon has seen are in the rearview mirror,” said Klump. You’re still going to get high year-over-year increases, but they’re going to shrink.

“That reflects the reality that the market is much more balanced than it has been for quite some time.”

Listing activity in Saskatoon and Regina saw the largest year-over-year increases compared to other major real estate markets across the nation, but it follows a trend that other western cities started to experience over a year ago. Nationally, new listing activity jumped seven percent to 67,628 units through May but ballooning inventory levels are causing the biggest problems in Calgary and Edmonton where average selling prices have fallen 2.4% and 4.8% respectively since this time last year.

For reasons that he doesn’t explain, Klump sees prices continuing to “rise at a slower pace,” and notes that CREA is “not forecasting price declines in Saskatchewan.”

Read Joanne’s Star Phoenix story here.

Read the Globe and Mail report here. (Thanks Crikey)

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Follow our daily updates on Twitter @SaskatoonHomes.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Vidorra

Residential unit sales in Saskatoon fell again in May for the third consecutive month, losing 163 sales (-34%) in the “home” category, and finishing the month at 339 units, compared to 502 in May 2007. The average selling price of a Saskatoon home (houses and condos only) fell marginally and finished the month at $305,148, compared to $306,033 the month before. In May of 2007, the average was just $233,013.

Earlier this month, the Saskatoon Region Association of Realtors reported a drop in the average selling price to $301,527 in May from $306,268 in April. Our “closer look” reveals that properties outside of the “condo and house” categories were impacted most. The average in the remaining classifications (duplex, semi-detached, vacant lots, mobiles) fell to $259,698 in May, from $304,516 the month before, skewing the overall averages down. In fact, Saskatoon home buyers paid $276 per square foot for their homes in May, compared to $272 per square foot, the month before. Basically, they settled for a little less home, for a little less money.

Once again, houses took the biggest hit when examining the decrease in unit sales. 241 units changed hands this May compared to 383 during May of 2007. Average selling prices increased from $240,089 last May, to settle at $327,392, about $1,400 less than the average in April. Again, prices per square foot were up $4 from April to $280 per square foot.

Condominium unit sales fell for the first time, but to a lesser degree than single-family homes, moving from 119 units in May of 2007, to 98 units in May of 2008. Average selling prices finished the month at $250,447, sharply higher than $210,236 recorded last year, but down a pretty good bump from April when an average of $259,975 was recorded. The price paid per square foot was up a smidge, month over month from $261 in April to $262 in May.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Follow our daily updates on Twitter @SaskatoonHomes.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Vidorra

Historically high commodity prices will push Saskatchewan to a leading growth position amongst Canadian provinces this year, according to RBC economist Paul Ferley.

Speaking to a group of RBC clients in Saskatoon on Friday, Ferley noted that a “wide range of commodities” are experiencing higher prices. He’s predicting that uranium, potash, wheat and oil production will push Saskatchewan’s economy forward by 3.5 percent in 2008, and 3.25 percent in 2009, compared to national growth rates of 1.5 percent and 2.5% respectively.

The Saskatchewan economy was the subject of much speculation in 2007, but ultimately underperformed on the most bullish predictions, which had forecast real GDP growth between 4 and 4.8 percent. Saskatchewan’s real GDP growth came in at 2.8 percent, just slightly above the national average. However, Saskatchewan’s nominal GDP growth through 2007 was exceptionally strong at 11.4 percent, topping all provinces except Newfoundland and Labrador. Real GDP measures changes in production, while nominal GDP measures the actual dollar value of the economy. You might say that we worked 2.8% harder, but earned 11.4% more.

Read the Saskatoon Star Phoenix story by Wendy Gillis here.

Read also: Saskatchewan Economy Underperforms on Expectations

Read also: The Rest of the Economic Growth Story

Read also: Saskatchewan Could Become an Embarrassment of Riches: RBC

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Follow our daily updates on Twitter @SaskatoonHomes.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Vidorra

In a press release issued this morning, the Saskatoon Region Association of Realtors (SRAR) says, “Saskatoon’s housing market stabilized in the month of May.”

SRAR reports that 1,015 residential properties were listed for sale, up from 706 for the same period last year. Unit sales, on the other hand, fell 37% when compared to May of 2007 when record levels of demand pushed unit sales to 580 units. “This May’s sales number is more on par with 2006 numbers,” the release goes on to say.

The average residential selling price remained strong at $301,527, down from it’s peak of $306,266 in April, but 29% higher than the number recorded in May 2007 when the average selling price of a Saskatoon home reached $233,404. Year to date, the average came in at $285,523 and the six-month rolling average came in at $275,218.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Follow our daily updates on Twitter @SaskatoonHomes.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Vidorra