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Saskatoon real estate: Week in review (December 22-26 2008)

Having just celebrated my sixteenth Christmas holiday season as a Realtor, I’ve learned over the years that you just can’t expect much of this particular week. Close your local MLS for three of the five regular business days and pretty much expect sales and listings to fall off of the map. This year was no different.


Just 15 new Saskatoon real estate listings hit the board this week including 13 single-family homes and 2 condominiums. Total active residential listings settled at 1,292 properties, down 36 units from the previous week, among them, 782 houses and 429 condos.


Sales were equally weak with a total of 15 homes firming up a final sale including 11 houses and 4 condominiums.


Price results for the Saskatoon homes that did sell proved to be a little more interesting, but again, with only 15 units in the review there isn’t much of a conclusion that can be drawn from the numbers. Given that the median price for the week was just $195,000 and the highest sale recorded was $356,900 it’s not much of a surprise that the average sale price plummeted to just $214,500, the lowest weekly average for the 2008 calendar year. I actually had to re-format the vertical axis on the “Averages” graph to make this week’s review work. The six-week average managed to drop nearly $8,500, falling from $279,240 last week to $270,782 this week and reaching its lowest level since the week of March 10-14 when it was $265,040. The four-week median selling price also took a pretty good dive dropping to $245,000, down a full $10,000 from the week before when it closed at $255,000 and reaching levels not seen since early this year. In fact, only two other weeks in 2008 produced a lower four-week median.


Now, it seems to me that most of the time that we see a spike, or a large decline in the weekly average, prices bounce in the opposite direction the following week. I fully expect that will happen next week but, with another short week ahead of us, it’s quite conceivable that next week could bring similar results. If it does, the four-week median would almost certainly fall again, perhaps back to 2007 territory.


The average underbid fell fairly substantially this past week from $15,455 to just $12,525. However, when calculating the average underbid as a percentage of the average asking price it’s pretty much bang on with the week before. The big number discounts ($20K plus) shrunk significantly from nearly 20% last week to 7% this week. The $15,001-$20,000 underbid made a pretty big comeback accounting for 27% of all recorded sales. Action in the $10,001 to $15,000, and the $5,001 to $10,000 categories took a smaller percentage of sales while the up to $5,000 range grew from 22% of sales last week to 33% this week.


I hope that you’re all having a pleasant and relaxing break over the holidays. Best wishes for a safe and happy New Year celebration followed by an outstanding 2009 for you and yours. Thanks again for reading and contributing.


I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions. 

All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.


Norm Fisher Royal LePage Vidorra

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Saskatoon real estate: Week in review (December 15-19 2008)

It was a far stronger week than I had expected. Perhaps Saskatoon real estate buyers were in the Christmas spirit. Overall, sellers had a better week than they did the previous week with stronger sales, higher prices and smaller underbids. Oddly, multiple offers were received on a number of properties. I am familiar with four instances where more than one buyer attempted to buy the same home. Two of the four sellers low-balled their asking price and tried the old “delayed presentation of offers” approach. Both of those properties found a number of willing bidders. One of the homes is firmly sold with a $13,000 overbid, while the other is under contract pending removal of conditions.


Through the course of the week 49 sellers in the residential category placed a sold sign on their property, up three from the week before, but down roughly 20% compared to the same week last year. Included in those unit sales were 31 single-family homes and 15 condominiums. Total residential unit sales to date in December finished the week at 131. Sales will almost certainly slow through the balance of December and there’s little doubt that we will finish the month below last year’s figure of 210 units, but it’s looking like we’ll close the month above the five-year average of 157 units, making December a far better month than we’ve seen in some time.


New listings also increased over the previous week. 62 residential properties were offered for sale on the Saskatoon MLS including 48 detached houses and 12 condominiums. Additionally, 13 of 28 properties that processed a cancellation came back as a new listing.  Total active listings continued to decline for the eighth week in a row finishing down by 50 units at 1,328 including 811 single-family homes and 435 condominiums. Active listings may well slip below 1,200 units by the first of January when, based on historical trends, we can expect to see the inventory begin to grow again.


In spite of the fact that condominium sales took a larger than typical share of the market (over 32%) once again, the average selling price of a Saskatoon home (houses and condos) bounced back more than $40,000 this week to finish at $290,715. The six-week average increased marginally from $275,914 last week to $279,240. Following a fairly significant slide last week, the four-week median inched down to $255,000 from $256,250 the week before.


Month to date, the average selling price in the entire residential category is $270,756, up nearly 6% from last December, but down roughly 3% from the final average of $278,495 in November. Perhaps more interesting, the average selling price of a Saskatoon house is sharply lower through the first two-thirds of December than it was in November sitting at just $279,057, down from $302,508. Condos are averaging $246,475 compared to just $222,834 last month. Certainly, condo prices are driven higher by a handful of luxury sales, but even if I remove four units at the high end and the low end we see a marginal increase in the average sale price. I suppose a lot could still change between now and the end of the month but I look forward to diving into these numbers a little deeper.


The average underbid was nearly 22% lower than last week moving from $19,717 to $15,455. Approximately 81% of all sales were wrapped up within $15,000 of the asking price compared to just 62% the week before. The most significant changes occur at the upper end of the underbids chart with the $10-15K category ballooning, the $15-20K category disappearing altogether, while the $20-25K and the plus $25 category both shrunk.


It’s also interesting to note that 6 of 46 house and condo sales were reported at, or above the asking price. Hardly indicative of a trend, but just the same, it’s the highest percentage we’ve seen since the week of September 22-26. As my family celebrates Christmas this will likely be my last post until next weekend. I’d like to wish you all the best of the holiday season. I hope it proves to be a happy time for you.


Thank you again for reading. I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions. 

All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.


Norm Fisher Royal LePage Vidorra

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What would happen if the Canadian real estate market followed a similar path to the U.S. housing market, and what would that look like a year down the road?


The Financial Post answered that question in an article titled, “How low can they go? If Canadian prices follow U.S. trends, certain cities will experience a major slide in house prices.”


Using a calculation based on the rise and fall of U.S. housing prices, and applying those same numbers to prices in Canada the Financial Post determined it would “…mean that most Canadian cities are headed for a fall in housing prices, especially those out west.”


Using their formula, the average price of a Saskatoon home would fall to just shy of $170,000 by October 2009 from it’s peak of $310,386 in June of 2008.


Is this method of comparing markets reasonable, or is it more like asking, “What would happen if we all suffered from cancer symptoms?”


You decide, and please let me know what you think.


I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions. 

All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.


Norm Fisher Royal LePage Vidorra

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Saskatoon real estate: Week in review (December 8-12 2008)

As expected, new Saskatoon real estate listings continued to taper off this week falling to their second lowest level for any week this year. A total of 58 residential properties were offered up for sale including 30 single-family detached houses and 15 condominiums. 26 residential listings were cancelled or withdrawn and just 10 of those made a repeat appearance as a new listing on the Saskatoon MLS system. Total active listings continued to slide for the seventh consecutive week dropping 28 units from the previous week to finish at 1,388 units including 850 houses and 449 condos, and reaching its lowest level since the week of June 16-20.


As residential sales activity picked up over the previous week, the listings and sales lines on our graph reached their closest point since February of this year.  A total of 46 residential property owners managed to firm up a pre-Christmas sale. 28 houses and 17 condos found a new owner over the course of the week. This was one of the better weeks for condo sales that we’ve seen in some time. The category managed to capture 37% of total residential sales, compared to just 15% the week before. Since the first of September condos have accounted for less than 21% of total residential unit sales.


74 price changes were recorded this week, a fairly sharp increase from 50 the week before. Seller motivation remains high. That motivation is certainly reflected in the balance of this week’s numbers.


Prices took a substantial dive this week according to all three of our value indicators. The weekly average fell sharply to just $247,022, down from $270,226 the week before as it reached its lowest level since the week of February 11-15, and its third lowest level for the entire year. The six-week rolling average dipped to $275,914 from $283,832 the previous week. Finally, that stubborn four-week median price dropped from the sticky levels we’ve been seeing for about three months time, falling to $256,250 from $269,950 the week before and reaching its lowest level since the week of March 10-14.


So, what the heck happened to Saskatoon real estate prices this week? There’s no doubt that the unusually high number of condominium sales brought the averages down, but still, the average selling price of a Saskatoon house also came in sharply lower compared to the previous week falling to $257,536 from $279,331. Interestingly though, the average size of the houses that traded was just 1,123 square feet, compared to 1,200 square feet for those which traded the week before. Given that the average cost per square foot for a Saskatoon house was $242 in November, nearly $19,000 of that difference can be accounted for in the size difference over the two weeks. Are higher condo sales and smaller house sales an indication that some first time buyers are beginning to get active again? Only time will tell.


Regardless of the types of homes and the sizes of houses that traded, there’s little doubt that Saskatoon home sellers who were fortunate enough to bag an offer went all out in an effort to close the deal. The average underbid soared to $19,717 and reached its highest level this year. The percentage of home sellers who completed a sale within $10,000 of the asking price did see an increase from 41% last week, to 47% this week. At the same time, there was a sharp increase in the percentage of sellers who accepted an offer that was more than $20,000 under their list price. The $20-25K category saw an increase from just 3% last week to 11% this week, while the over $25K category moved from 15% to 18%.


I expect that similar activity will be the order of the day through the balance of December. From this point forward, buyers are in extremely short supply as the focus shifts from home buying to holidays. At the same time, seller motivation is likely to reach its peak as Saskatoon home owners put a sold sign at the very top of their Christmas wish list. If you have decided that you’ll purchase a home in the next sixty days, these next three weeks may present an opportunity to grind yourself a good buy. Once we get through this year sellers may be encouraged by an uptick in buyer activity that we would normally expect over the next few months.


I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions. 

All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.


Norm Fisher Royal LePage Vidorra

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RBC’s recently released “Housing Trends and Affordability” study suggests that housing affordability in the province saw some modest improvements over the third quarter but the Saskatchewan housing market is experiencing a “hangover” after a year of partying hard.


“Like Alberta and British Columbia before it, Saskatchewan is about to feel the downside of frenzied markets. Housing demand in the province greatly benefited from the red-hot prairie economy (thanks largely to strong demand and prices for commodities) and the inflow of people into the province. However, housing markets got carried away as skyrocketing prices significantly overstepped historical relationships with household income. RBC’s provincial affordability measures spiked in all housing segments last year, reaching the poorest levels on records dating back to the mid-1980s. As is often the case, a wild party ends with a hangover and Saskatchewan’s fête last year will be no different. Housing resales and prices are already showing clear signs of weakening. More is likely to occur.”


Take two Tylenol and call me in the morning.


I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions. 

All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.


Norm Fisher Royal LePage Vidorra

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Saskatoon real estate: Week in review (December 1-5 2008)

New listings in the Saskatoon real estate market fell to their lowest level since the week of December 31 – January 4 as a total of 70 properties made their way to the MLS system including 45 houses (single-family detached homes) and 17 condominiums. Additionally, just 13 of the 43 properties that were cancelled or withdrawn from the system this week found their way back on as a “new listing.” Total active residential listings took a huge slide falling nearly 8% in a single week to finish at 1,416 units, down from 1,534 the week before and reaching their lowest level since the third week of June. The current inventory includes 862 houses and 463 condos.


Unit sale numbers were fairly steady at 34 units, down 3 from the previous week, and off 14 units from the same week last year. Total unit sales consisted of 29 houses and 5 condominiums. Looking at the “Units Sold vs. Units Listed” graph, it’s somewhat encouraging to me that the right side of the graph looks an awful lot like the left side of the graph. Will we come out into January seeing numbers that are comparable to last year? Will new listings continue to trend closer to weekly sales, or will they spike higher like they did last year?


Over the course of the week 50 price changes were recorded on the Saskatoon MLS system. The average sale price for the week fell rather sharply to $270,226 from $293,424 the week before while the six-week average gave up just over $1,200 sliding from $285,086 to settle at $283,832. The median sale price for the week fell about $8,000 from the week before but the four-week median continued to display a stubborn attitude holding firm at $269,950 and remaining in the same general range as it has for the past three months.


Buyers continued to find motivated sellers, who were prepared to engage in an aggressive negotiation as the average underbid remained fairly steady at $15,319, up just slightly from the previous week, but still amongst the top five weeks this year. The percentage of buyers prepared to sign a deal within $10,000 of the asking price fell from 48% to 41%. The percentage of buyers who managed a discount in excess of $20,000 also came in lower falling to 18% from 24%. The $10,001-$15,000 category grew by 6%, and the $15,001-$20,000 category doubled from 6% last week to 12% this week.


I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions. 

All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.


Norm Fisher Royal LePage Vidorra

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The Saskatoon Region Association of Realtors recently reported November resultsfor the entire residential category of Saskatoon real estate, which includes single-family homes, condominiums, semi-detached properties, duplexes, mobile homes and vacant lots. Unit sales totaled 181 properties across all of these property types, and an average sale price of $278,495. Let’s have a look at how houses (single-family detached homes) and condominiums did in comparison to the entire residential category.


Residential listing inventory took a pretty good slide this month in both the house and condo categories. Total active listings of Saskatoon houses for sale fell to 882 from 990 at the close of October, and 1,053 the month before. Condo listings landed at 493 units, down from 530 the month before. Sales also weakened in both categories as house sales fell to just 132 units, down from 162 the month before and way off of the 223 properties sold in November 2007. Saskatoon condo sales slipped to 38 units, down just a smidge from October’s weak performance when 40 units traded, but off by 50% compared to November 2007 when 77 condos changed hands.


The price of a Saskatoon house saw marginal declines according to all four value indicators through the month of November. Average selling prices slid to $302,508 from $305,021 in October but remained significantly higher than the $257,491 recorded in November of 2007. The median house price slid $5,000 for the second month to settle at $285,000 and the three-month average showed it’s fifth consecutive monthly decline down by just $1,000 compared to the previous month.


All but one of the five major trading areas experienced a decline in the price per square foot on houses that traded. Area 5 managed a gain from $239 in October to $244 in November. Area 4 took the biggest dive falling from $196 in October to just $162 in November. On average, across all areas, the average price paid per square foot on houses declined from $247 last month to $242 this month. That’s just a 2% decline on a month-over-month basis but a 15.5% decline from its peak in May when the average price per square foot of a Saskatoon house was $280.


In the Saskatoon condo market, the numbers are not quite as simple but a close look does provide some clues. First, the average selling price inched down slightly, falling just over $2,000 from $224,970 in October to $222,834 in November. The median selling price shows a small gain from $210,000 to $214,000 and the three-month average is more or less level with the previous month at $230,812. On a month-over-month basis those don’t look like big changes, but year-over-year we see a pretty significant downward trend. In November 2007, the average selling price of a Saskatoon condo was 8% higher at a whopping $241,339.


The price per square foot number for Saskatoon condominiums provides a clearer picture of how condos have been affected over this period of correction. Again, area 5 manages to produce a gain on just three unit sales but the numbers tumble in areas 1 and 2. With average selling prices fairly stable, we can see that buyers are clearly buying larger units for roughly the same amount of money. Overall, the average selling price of a Saskatoon condo, on a price per square foot basis fell roughly 6% over the month from $231 in October to just $217 in Novem

The gap between the price of a Saskatoon house and a condo continues to widen. We are finally seeing pretty substantial differences (30-35%) between the average price of these two types of properties and the cost per square foot measure has grown slightly larger as well. Last November, house prices were not quite 7% higher than a condo. Prices on a cost per square foot basis were actually higher for condos than houses at $234 and $225 respectively. This was just one of the strange imbalances that occurred in our real estate market through 2007 which has managed to sort itself out.


Condos are starting to look far more realistic at their current price point, perhaps even reasonable given the huge rents that they’re generating. I can’t help but wonder if future prices changes won’t be a little closer to what houses have been experiencing. Entry-level apartments that came close to $200,000 through the spring are now available in the $160,000 range and a decent townhouse can be had for as low as $210,000. I wonder how long it will be before renters facing constant increases start to look to these properties as a solid option. From a seller’s perspective, renting a condo is now an option that may be as good as selling it. I guess it all depends on where you think prices are headed and when this correction will end.


I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.


Follow our daily updates on Twitter @SaskatoonHomes.


Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Vidorra

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The Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS® (SRAR) has released November’s statistics for the residential category along with the following media release.


The active residential listings number dropped slightly during the month of November. Buyers had 1495 properties to choose from at the end of November that number down from 1667 properties being available in October of this year.


Saskatoon REALTORS® listed 425 homes in November that number up 13% from November 2007 when 375 homes were placed on the market, Year to date 7,891 residential properties have been listed for sale.


The average selling price remained steady for November at $278,495.00 up 11% from November 2007 when the average selling price was $251,209.00. Year to date the average selling price stands at $288,807.00 up 25 % from 2007. These higher average sale price numbers indicate significant sales activity in the mid to upper price range.


181 residential properties sold in November that number down 43% from November 2007 when 316 units sold. The year 2007 was a unique year for sales activity. When measured against 2005 and 2006 the unit sales are down 22% when 230 units sold. Year to date 3,360 units have sold down 21% from 2007 having a total of 4,234 residential units sold. The 2008-year to date unit sales number is up 2% measured against 2006 when 3,276 residential units sold. When 2008 sales numbers are compared to 2005, unit sales are up 15% when year to date number stood at 2,861units sold.


Residential dollar volume year to date is on par with 2007 with REALTORS® having sold $970,392,000.00 of real estate. Year to date dollar volume in 2006 stood at $523,242,000.00.


The $300 to 400,000 price range has experienced the highest activity in 2008 followed by the $225 to 250,000.00 price range. Year to date 161 residential units have sold over $500,000.00.


The global economic slow down will in some way affect all areas of Canada. All indicators point to Saskatchewan being one of the best places to weather the storm. As indicated in the Canadian Real Estate Association news release, consumer confidence is being battered by downbeat headline news. Homebuyer sentiment has become very cautious, by contrast to the urgency to purchase in 2007.


There are fewer buyers and they are taking longer to shop, so the pricing environment is very competitive.


Unrealistically priced homes will sit on the market. Sellers are by and large under no distress to sell. Those who put their home on the market at an unrealistic price and are unwilling to cut it will likely take it off the market when the listing expires with a view to selling another day.


Canadians are definitely concerned by the economic news out of the U.S., and much of that news stems from distress in the U.S. housing market. Canadians should realize that Canada’s economy and housing market are both in better shape. This means the downturn in Canadian consumer confidence will pass and when it does, housing demand will rebound, especially when they realize the window of opportunity to buy at reduced prices and at low interest rates will begin to narrow once economic growth shows signs of rebounding next year.


My Closer Look at the Saskatoon Real Estate Statistics for November will follow in the next couple of days. That report examines sales and listing activity for condominiums and single-family detached homes.


I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.


Follow our daily updates on Twitter @SaskatoonHomes.


Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Vidorra

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