The inventory of Saskatoon homes for sale continued on an upward path through March. Active listings of detached houses grew by just over 100 units on a month-over-month basis and settled at 867 by month’s end. That’s a fair bit higher compared to March of 2008when just 470 houses were available for sale on the local MLS system. On the positive side, the number is up by less than 100% over the previous year for the first time in many months. Unit sales of single-family homes came in at 193 properties, down about seventeen percent from 233 sales in March of 2008 but still reached their highest level since July of last year when 228 houses were sold.

Available Saskatoon condominiums also came in higher on a month-over-month basis climbing from 412 units at the end of Februaryto finish at 461 properties a month later. Sales picked up over the previous month to 66 units, just half the number that traded in March of last year.

Based on current sales and inventory, condo sellers are faced with a seven-month supply of inventory while single-family home owners have just four and one half months of supply to contend with. There are some bright spots on the inventory front though. Overall, we have about a five-month supply of residential real estate in Saskatoon, which is the lowest it has been since July of 2008. From August through December, the supply hovered between seven and eight months.

The average selling price of a detached house fell from a lofty $305,130 last month, and finished March at $286,634, about 12.5% lower than the average sale price of $326,633 from March of last year. The median price had a shorter fall on a month-over-month basis, down just $5,000 to $275,000, but about fourteen percent lower than last March’s number of $320,000. The three-month average managed a small gain over February and finished at $293,973, down just over six percent compared to the same month last year.

The average price per square foot for single-homes also edged down in March, falling to $238 from $252 the month before, and finishing about fifteen percent off of the near peak number of $279 that we saw last March. Areas four and five both managed a small month-over-month gain but all five Saskatoon real estate areas took a bath compared to last year with area three falling most sharply at twenty-one percent and area 2 fairing most favorably, down just twelve percent from last March.

At first glance condos seem to have performed somewhat better then single-family homes on a year over year basis, at least as far as averages and medians are concerned. The average selling price of a Saskatoon condo declined just over $10,000 from February and was down just $4,700 from the same month last year when it reached $219,975. The median price of a condo fell $13,000 from $212,500 in February to $199,450 in March, down just five percent from March of 2008. The three-month average fell nearly $8,000 from the month before but actually finished higher on a year-over-year basis at $220,182, up from $215,822 last year.

When you’re talking about just 66 sales, across all five real estate areas, some crazy stuff can start to happen, so let’s dig a little to see what’s really happening here.

First of all, the average size of condo that traded in March 2009 was 1,007 square feet compared to 908 square feet for condos selling during the same month last year. Some of strength in condo prices can be attributed to that. Larger units should fetch a higher price. Secondly, there is a real shift in the location of the units that are selling this year. Last year, 22 of 130 condo sales, or seventeen percent of sales, occurred on Saskatoon’s more affordable west end. This year, we see 2 of 66 units, or about three percent of condo sales occurring on the west end. If we compare apples to apples (at least as closely as we can) here’s what we find. The average price of an area 1 condo was $241,447 last March and fell to $207,293 this year. Area 2 came in at $288,721 during March of 2008 and fell to $229,733 this year. Area 3 took some huge year-over-year gains climbing to $240,488 from just $186,859 last year but the average size of the units traded also grew from 698 square feet to 1,057 square feet. Area 4 hasn’t seen a condo sale for darned near a year, and finally, area 5 fell from $189,670 last March to just $169,000 this March.

Once again, average price per square foot numbers probably paint a slightly more accurate picture of Saskatoon condo prices. After seeing a healthy upward bump in January, the average cost per square foot for a condo slid to $214 from $223 the month before, and down about twelve percent from March of 2008 when it hit $242. On a year-over-year basis the average cost per square foot fell fifteen percent in area 1, thirteen percent in area 2, sixteen percent in area 3, and just four percent in area 5.

Remember, averages and cost per square foot numbers can provide some useful insights into pricing trends but they’re not as useful when engaging in an actual transaction. If you’re buying or selling you should be seeking current information on active listings and recent sales, which are most comparable to your property in terms of location, size, features and amenities.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Follow our daily updates on Twitter @Norm_Fisher.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Vidorra

Looking back on the boom in Canadian home building from 2002 to 2008, it is now clear that unsustainable price increases drove unsustainable levels of building. This overbuilding will weigh on markets over at least the next three years. Even as Canada recovers from the cyclical downtown, house prices will only rebound sluggishly and new residential construction will remain depressed, owing to this structural weakness. While newly built houses were being rapidly purchased by new homeowners during the housing boom, our view is that house prices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by fundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide during 2004-2008…particularly on the Canadian prairies.

Overpriced and Overbuilt: Canadian Housing Market Returns to Fundamentals: TD

Thank you to Crikey for the heads up.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Follow our daily updates on Twitter @Norm_Fisher.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Vidorra

The short week didn’t prevent agents and sellers from finding time to list Saskatoon homes for saleas one hundred and forty nine properties in the house and condo categories were offered for sale. Listings for the week were up nine units compared to last week but continued to lag well behind on a year-over-year basis. This same week in 2008 saw 200 new house and condo listings. Total active residential real estate listings managed to push higher again closing the week at 1,451 units, up fifty-two over last week when they sat just below the 1,400 mark, and sharply higher than the 619 properties which were sale during the same week last year. As of this morning, there are 890 houses and 472 condos for sale within the city of Saskatoon.

Saskatoon home prices remained fairly level compared to recent weeks but continued to lose ground using year-over-year comparisons. Again, this was a period of sharp and steady increases through 2008 while the current trend over that same period this year is, at the very best, holding the line. The average selling price for the week crept up just about five thousand dollars over last week to finish at $278,498. The six-week average gained approximately seventeen hundred dollars over last week, closing at  $268,726; nearly twenty-eight thousand dollars lower than the number reached for the same week last year. The four-week median held steady compared to last week at $260,000 but fell further on a year-over-year basis to finish $31,750, or eleven percent, below last year’s number.

The average underbid recorded this week increased from $12,180 to $13,141 and amounted to an average discount of 4.5% of the asking price, up from 4.3% last week. The lower price categories on the underbid chart look a lot like a typical week with about sixty-three percent of Saskatoon home sellers accepting an offer within ten thousand dollars of the asking price. There are some big differences in the upper end price categories though as the $10,001-$15,000 category increased from fourteen percent last week to nineteen percent, the over $25,000 expanded in a big way from four percent to sixteen percent, while the $15,001-$20,000 category disappeared from the chart and the $20,001-$25,000 represented just two percent of sales compared to eight percent a week earlier.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Follow our daily updates on Twitter @Norm_Fisher.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Vidorra

As we head into the all-important spring season, the ongoing cyclical correction will put the entire housing sector to the test. However, while the pain will likely persist for many homeowners and industry participants, there are encouraging signs on the affordability front in light of developments through the fourth quarter of 2008. The sharp deteriorating trend in RBC’s affordability measures from about 2004 to late 2007-early 2008 has reversed in the past year. At the national level, the RBC measures improved 2.3 to 3.5 percentage points between the final quarters of 2007 and 2008, with markets in Alberta and British Columbia showing more sizable repair (although this largely reflects the extent of the earlier impairment).

The improvement can be primarily credited to monetary policy during that period because lower mortgage rates account for the largest portion of the reversal in RBC’s measures in almost all major urban areas in Canada except for cities in Alberta. Rising family income also contributed positively across the country.

Only in Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver was price a constructive factor in the year-over-year change – although price has played a wider beneficial role in recent more quarters. Higher utilities and property taxes have remained a modest undermining factor.

Going forward, low mortgage rates and persisting downward pressure on housing prices will continue to help repair affordability, but slowing income growth will act as a restraint.

Saskatchewan — Boom is over but no bust

The housing boom is officially over in Saskatchewan. Market activity has cooled considerably from the frenzied pace of 2006-early 2008 and prices have begun to come off the heights they reached during their spectacular run-up. However, the post-boom period so far has been a mostly orderly affair thanks to the province’s largely supportive economic and demographic fundamentals (Saskatchewan’s economy is the strongest in Canada and is forecast to remain so during 2009). These positive factors overshadow extremely poor affordability levels that have resulted from the spike in prices of recent years. While lower mortgage rates, income gains and, in more recent quarters, lower prices have helped improve affordability in the past year, RBC’s measures remain at worrisome levels compared to historical averages. This represents an element of risk if the province’s economic performance is weaker than expected.

Read to entire report here.

Good news, bad news for home buyers: Star Phoenix

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Follow our daily updates on Twitter @Norm_Fisher.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Vidorra

First quarter residential unit sales maintained a similar pace to the last few months. Saskatoon REALTORS® sold 283 residential properties in the month of March, that number down 28% from March 2008 when 391 units were sold. Sales numbers are on par with 2005 and 2006.

REALTORS® sold $75,481,000.00 of real estate in March, that number down 33% from March 2008 when $113,206,000.00 of real estate was sold. The drop in dollar volume is directly related to the reduced number of unit sales. Year to date REALTORS® have sold $193,581,000.00 of real estate.

The average residential selling price was $266,720.00, that number down 8% from March 2008 with an average selling price of $289,530.00. These numbers indicate a slight softening of upper price range home sales. Year to date the average selling price remains on par with 2008 at $274,584.00.

The average residential price is derived by taking the month’s dollar volume of homes sold and dividing that number by the unit sales number. The percentage of change should not be used unilaterally as prices vary from area to area. Consumers wishing an accurate estimate of value for their home should contact a REALTOR® member to do a comparative market analysis.

In the month of March the $275,000 - $300,000 price range saw the greatest sales activity. 23 homes sold in the $400,000 plus price range. Year to date 69 properties have sold over $ 400,000 with 3 homes selling for more than $1,000,000.

An inventory correction appears to have begun. Saskatoon REALTORS® listed 662 homes in March, that number on par with 2008. Year to date 1,742 homes have been placed on the market. Buyers had 1435 properties to select from at the end of March. It will likely take the remaining part of 2009 to reduce the current larger than normal inventory level.

Confidence in the Saskatoon and Saskatchewan economy remains strong. Market activity and expectation are directly related to the employment environment. The Conference Board of Canada predicts an increase in GDP for our province in 2009; in addition employment numbers are also expected to increase. The necessary fundamentals appear to be in place for Saskatoon to have a stable market for the remainder of 2009.

Drop by early next week when our “Closer look at the Saskatoon real estate statistics for March” will be posted. It includes a more extensive overview of unit sales, prices and active listings of single-family homes and condominiums.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Follow our daily updates on Twitter @Norm_Fisher.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Vidorra