Strong sales in Q4 reinvigorate first-time home-buying segment

SASKATOON, January 9, 2020 -- According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey released today, the aggregate price of a home in Saskatoon decreased 1.0 per cent year-over-year to $368,954 in the fourth quarter of 2019. 

The median price of a standard two-storey home decreased 2.5 per cent year-over-year to $392,517, while the median price of a bungalow increased 1.3 per cent year-over-year to $338,345 during the same period.

“We’re seeing an increased level of interest in entry-level homes; the first-time buyer market has picked up, which skewed median prices downward,” said Norm Fisher, broker, and owner, Royal LePage Vidorra.

Fisher added that increased wages, combined with lower unemployment rates, is increasing consumer confidence.

“Incomes are rising and mortgage delinquencies are now falling,” stated Fisher. “There are strong indicators for an improving Saskatoon housing market in 2020, with modest price gains around one per cent, at best.”

Nationally, the aggregate price of a home in Canada increased by 2.2 per cent year-over-year to $648,544 in the fourth quarter of 2019. Similar to the third quarter, potential buyers are continuing to come back to the real estate market. In the first half of 2019, buyers had remained largely at the sidelines waiting to gauge the potential impact of the federal mortgage stress test.  

“The federal government has signaled that changes could come to the mortgage stress test mechanism in 2020,” said Phil Soper, president, and CEO, Royal LePage. “The stress test pushed people out of real estate markets across Canada temporarily. For the most part, buyers have adjusted, yet it still represents a significant hurdle as families pursue the dream of owning their own home.”

Soper added that the impact of the regulations-driven drop in demand is felt very differently in different parts of the country. 

“We believe policymakers have the necessary experience to modify the tool to meet the reality of today’s Canada - that we have very different and varied economies, and by extension housing policy needs, from region to region,” said Soper.

News Coverage for This Release

CTV Saskatoon - 'Strong Indicators'  that Saskatoon housing market will improve in 2020

GlobalNews - https://globalnews.ca/news/6404383/saskatoons-housing-market-royal-lepage-2019-2020

About the Royal LePage House Price Survey

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data in 64 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the median price of a two-storey home rose 2.3 per cent year-over-year to $761,817, while the median price of a bungalow increased modestly by 0.7 per cent to $537,622. 

For more regional analysis, visit Royal LePage’s media room. The media room also contains royalty-free assets, such as images and b-roll, that are free for media use. 

The Royal LePage House Price Survey provides information on the three most common types of housing in Canada, in 64 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. Housing values in the Royal LePage House Price Survey are based on the Royal LePage Canadian Real Estate Market Composite, produced quarterly through the use of company data in addition to data and analytics from its sister company, RPS Real Property Solutions, the trusted source for residential real estate intelligence and analytics in Canada. Commentary on housing and forecast values are provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts, based on their opinions and market knowledge.

About Royal LePage

Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country’s leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of over 18,000 real estate professionals in over 600 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage Shelter Foundation, dedicated to supporting women’s and children’s shelters and educational programs aimed at ending domestic violence. Royal LePage is a Bridgemarq Real Estate Services Inc. company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbol TSX:BRE. For more information, please visit www.royallepage.ca. 

Norm Fisher, Broker/Owner of Royal LePage Vidorra and Kyle Benning of GlobalNews discuss the impact of "newcomers to Canada" on the local and national real estate markets.

A recently released report from Royal LePage shows that "newcomers to Canada" are behind one in five homes sold across the nation. That number goes to two in five in the Prairie region.

The survey found that 86% of newcomers (anyone who has moved to Canada in the past ten years) see real estate as a good investment and 75% of respondents arrived in Canada with savings to help them purchase a home.

Most typically, these folks settle into a rental home or stay with family initially. On average, those interviewed for this report purchased within three years of arriving in Canada.

At the current rates of immigration, it's expected that newcomers will purchase 680,000 Canadian homes over the next five years, 71,000 within the prairie region.

Read the full report here.

Read also: GlobalNews - 41% of homes bought on the Prairies purchased by new Canadians

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  Reach out by voice or text at 306-241-6676 or email me at norm at teamfisher.com

Norm Fisher

Royal LePage Vidorra

Affordability of Saskatoon homes sparks demand

Local housing market shifts towards a balanced market

SASKATOON, July 10, 2019 -- The aggregate price of a home in Saskatoon continued to show declines in the second quarter of 2019, decreasing 2.6 percent year-over-year to $359,895, according to the Royal LePage House Price Survey released today.

During the second quarter, the median price of a two-storey home decreased by 3.0 percent year-over-year to $388,470. At the same time, the median price of a bungalow decreased 2.2 percent year-over-year to $327,325.

“What happened behind the scenes this spring is that we saw demand was up nine percent year-to-date compared to last year and that’s a really strong growth number,” said Matt Miller, broker, and owner, Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate. “We are moving from a buyer’s market into a more balanced one.”

Miller predicts prices to remain relatively flat in the next quarter, with perhaps some small increases. Home buyers should continue to benefit from low-interest rates and the adjustment in regional sale prices. He stated the effects of the OFSI mortgage stress test are still being felt.

“If you look at the Saskatoon real estate market, the contraction mirrors what is happening in the economy and it is similar to other commodity-dependent regions,” stated Miller.

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite, compiled from proprietary property data in 63 of the nation’s largest real estate markets, showed that the price of a home in Canada increased 1.1 percent year-over-year to $621,696 in the second quarter of 2019. When broken out by housing type, the median price of a two-storey home rose 1.0 percent year-over-year to $727,165, while the median price of a bungalow dipped 0.4 percent year-over-year to $516,048. Condominiums remained the fastest growing housing type on a national basis, with its median price rising 3.8 percent year-over-year to $452,451.

“We now have evidence of a sustained market recovery in the nation’s largest market, and signs of a price floor in other regions hit hard by the eighteen-month-old housing correction,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “Only in the West do we see a significant number of home buyers remaining on the sidelines, depressing sales volumes and causing prices to sag. Buoyed by supportive economic conditions, many stubborn homeowners in B.C. and Alberta remain unwilling to let their precious real estate go for less than what they perceive as fair value, which has gone a long way to protecting existing home values.”

Royal LePage expects national home prices to see a modest uptick by the end of the year, rising 0.4 percent compared to the end of 2018. 

Homebuyer confidence affected by employment uncertainty and increases in home financing costs SASKATOON,

January 11, 2019 – According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey released today, the aggregate price of a home in Saskatoon saw a moderate decrease in the fourth quarter of 2018, decreasing 1.7 per cent year-over-year to $371,486.

When broken out by housing type, the median price of a two-storey home decreased 0.4 per cent year-over-year to $407,286. During the same period, the median price of a bungalow decreased 3.5 per cent year-over-year to $330,663.

“High levels of inventory coupled with a significant decline in demand have led to moderate decreases in the region’s home prices,” said Norm Fisher, Broker and owner, Royal LePage Vidorra.

“The increased costs of financing a home have also contributed to the slowdown in the Saskatoon real estate market. The stress test that came into effect in January of 2018 along with interest rate increases have made it tougher for first-time homebuyers,” added Fisher.

“At the same time, the commodities sector slump continues to weigh down the city’s housing market. As our provincial economy heavily relies on mineral extraction, uncertainty regarding employment in the oil and uranium industries is affecting homebuyers’ confidence.”

Nationally, year-over-year home prices made healthy gains in many regions across Canada in the fourth quarter of 2018. The Royal LePage National House Price Composite, compiled from proprietary property data in 63 of the nation’s largest real estate markets, showed that the price of a home in Canada increased 4.0 per cent year-over-year to $631,223 in the fourth quarter of 2018.

When broken out by housing type, the median price of a two-storey home rose 3.9 per cent year-over-year to $745,007, while the median price of a bungalow climbed 1.5 per cent to $516,950. Condominiums continued to see the highest rate of appreciation nationally when compared to the detached segment, rising 7.2 per cent year-over-year to $447,915.

“The invisible hand that guides our complex economy hit the real estate reset button in 2018 and that is a good thing,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage.

“Major market home price inflation through much of the decade had led to dangerous overheating in our most populous regions. Government regulatory intervention and rising interest rates, when combined with property price overshooting, triggered the correctional cycle we find ourselves working through today.” 

Read also - Global News - Mortgage stress test, higher interest rates affecting Saskatoon's real estate market

Surplus of inventory and low commodity prices contribute to home price depreciation across the region

SASKATOON, January 10, 2018 – According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey1 released today, home prices in Saskatoon saw moderate declines in the final quarter of 2017, with the aggregate price of a home in the region dipping 2.2 per cent year-over-year to $377,222.

When broken out by housing category, the median price of a two-storey home decreased 0.4 per cent year-over-year to $410,819 in the fourth quarter of 2017, while the median price of a bungalow decreased 4.6 per cent to $338,854.

“The decrease in home prices that we saw in Saskatoon in the final quarter of the year comes down to a high level of available inventory, especially in the bungalow segment of the market,” said Norm Fisher, broker and owner, Royal LePage Vidorra.

“In recent months, we have seen a surplus of activity at price points below $350,000 that has boosted the market, but not enough to keep prices from sliding.

“We continue to struggle with low commodity prices. When they are down, our housing market is impacted significantly,” continued Fisher. “We have seen layoffs in the potash and uranium industries, keeping our unemployment rate above the national average. However, we do see improvements on the horizon. Saskatoon has great inventory at an affordable price point for first-time buyers to choose from, providing them with attractive options and time to make an informed decision.”

Nationally, Canada’s residential real estate market saw strong, but slowing year-over-year price growth in the fourth quarter of 2017. The Royal LePage National House Price Composite, compiled from proprietary property data in 53 of the nation’s largest real estate markets, showed that the price of a home in Canada increased 10.8 per cent year-over-year to $626,042 over the three-month period. When broken out by housing type, the median price of a two-storey home rose 11.1 per cent year-over-year to $741,924, and the median price of a bungalow climbed 7.1 per cent to $522,963. During the same period, the median price of a condominium appreciated faster than any other housing type studied, rising 14.3 per cent to $420,823 on a year-over-year basis.

“To prospective homeowners in our largest cities, condominiums represent the last bastion of affordability,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage.

“This is especially true for first-time buyers whose purchasing power has been reduced by tightening mortgage regulations.”

In line with Royal LePage’s previous Market Survey Forecast, Royal LePage predicts that the price of a home in Canada will increase 4.9 per cent by the end of 2018. Looking ahead, the company anticipates that the new OSFI stress test will slow the housing market in the first half of 2018, as buyers adjust their expectations and many market participants take a “wait and see” approach.

“The unsustainably high rates of home price appreciation witnessed in recent years in B.C. and Ontario were dangerous to the stability of not only the housing market but to the broader economy itself,” continued Soper. “Policy measures like the OSFI stress test will quell runaway housing inflation to an extent. However, we do foresee an upswing in demand in the latter portion of the year, as prospective buyers adjust to the new realities. To put it another way, the demand is still there.” 

Read also: Global News - Housing prices in Saskatoon continue to drop

Despite seeing a healthy amount of demand, high inventory levels contribute to slight decreases in pricing across the region

SASKATOON, July 13, 2017 – According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey1 and Market Survey Forecast released today, the aggregate price of a home in Saskatoon dipped slightly in the second quarter of 2017, slipping by 1.7 per cent year-over-year to $379,864.

When broken out by housing type, the median price of a two-storey home and bungalow both declined by 1.7 per cent year-over-year to $409,633 and $345,868, respectively.

“Saskatoon’s residential real estate market continued to march onwards in the second quarter of 2017, producing sales figures that are on par with the same time last year,” said Norm Fisher, broker and owner, Royal LePage Vidorra.

“While inventory is at an all-time high, home prices have been supported by modest population and job growth, combined with continued low interest rates.”

Looking ahead, Fisher forecasts that pricing and sales activity will soften slightly by the end of the year, as high inventory levels and a seasonal slowing of demand dampens the market.

Nationally, Canada’s residential real estate market posted strong home price gains in the second quarter of 2017, with the majority of metropolitan markets across Canada displaying expansionary trends. During the quarter, the Royal LePage National House Price Composite showed that the price of a home in Canada increased 13.8 per cent year-over-year to $609,144. When broken out by housing type, the price of a two-storey home rose 14.6 per cent year-overyear to $725,391, while the price of a bungalow increased by 10.7 per cent to $511,965. Over the same period, the price of a condominium climbed 13.4 per cent to $397,826.

“Following a period of unprecedented regional disparity in activity and price appreciation, we are now seeing a return to healthy growth in the majority of Canadian housing markets,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage.

“The white-hot markets are moderating to very warm; the depressed markets are beginning to grow again. Canadian housing is in great shape – a statement that I certainly did not make last quarter.”

“The rate of national house price appreciation that we experienced in the second quarter continues to be above what we would consider a normal range, driven primarily by very strong year-over-year price growth across much of Ontario,” continued Soper.

Looking ahead to the remainder of the year, Royal LePage forecasts that the national aggregate price of a home will increase by 9.5 per cent in 2017 to $617,773 when compared to year-end, 2016. 

Read also: Global News - Home Prices in Saskatoon continue to slide: Royal LePage

Significant inventory and soft demand create a buyer’s market SASKATOON,

April 18, 2017 – According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey1 released today, the aggregate price of a home in Saskatoon dipped slightly in the first quarter of 2017, decreasing 0.5 per cent year-over-year to $385,980.

When broken out by housing type, the median price of a two-storey home declined 1.5 per cent year-over-year to $412,795. During the same period, the median price of a bungalow increased modestly by 0.9 per cent year-over-year to $355,623.

“A persistent supply of inventory is giving buyers the edge across several price ranges and property types in Saskatoon,” said Norm Fisher, broker and owner, Royal LePage Vidorra.

“When coupled with a continued low interest rate environment, the surplus in listings has kept Saskatoon’s housing market relatively affordable when compared to many other larger cities in Canada. Even though low resource prices are having an impact on employment and population growth in Saskatoon, home prices have been remarkably resilient in the face of tough times.”

Nationally, Canada’s residential real estate market saw substantial price growth in the first quarter of 2017, increasing 12.6 per cent year-over-year to $574,103. The price of a two-storey home rose 13.9 per cent year-over-year to $681,728, and the price of a bungalow increased 11.0 per cent to $490,018. During the same period, the price of a condominium increased 8.9 per cent to $372,638.

While the majority of housing markets in Canada posted modest gains, price appreciation across much of Ontario significantly outpaced the rest of the country. Meanwhile, the pace of year-over-year home price appreciation in Greater Vancouver was noticeably lower than the historic highs witnessed in 2016.

“For the first time in several years, real estate markets in Vancouver and Toronto are headed in opposite directions,” said Phil Soper, President and CEO, Royal LePage.

“The Vancouver market stalled, as confused consumers took to the sidelines after a series of uncoordinated moves by all three levels of government. With its housing shortage becoming more acute, Toronto easily stepped forward to assume the title of Canada’s most overheated real estate market.”

Significant home price appreciation, caused by market dynamics similar to those that have driven housing activity in the Greater Toronto Area, is being seen across the entire “Golden Horseshoe” region of south-central Ontario, and as far away as Windsor and London in southwestern Ontario. In fact, the torrid pace of home price appreciation in much of Ontario contributed almost half of the national aggregate home price increase in the first quarter, with the rest of Canada appreciating by a healthy, but much lower, 6.4 per cent year-over-year when excluding all Ontario-based regions.

“The overall Canadian market is healthier in 2017 than it has been in years, yet the downside risks are greater too,” concluded Soper.

“Our economy, which has recovered nicely from the 2014 oil crisis, is sadly dependent on moves by an unpredictable U.S. federal government and can be swayed by unforeseen global events, such as fallout from Europe’s restructuring. Still, housing activity is strong and prices are rising at a healthy mid-single-digit rate across the land.

The trend in Alberta, Quebec and Atlantic Canada is particularly encouraging. Our concerns with the state of Canadian real estate begin and end in Toronto and Vancouver.” 

Read also: Global News - Saskatoon housing prices flat in Q1 2017: Royal LePage

SASKATOON, April 7, 2016 – The aggregate price* of a home in Saskatoon remained relatively flat in the first quarter of 2016, slipping 0.3 percent year-over-year to $373,658, according to the Royal LePage House Price Survey**released today.

When broken out by housing type, the median price of a two-storey home increased 1.5 percent to $464,630 while the median price of a bungalow rose 0.7 percent year-over-year to $366,113.  During the same period, condominium prices fell 10.1 percent year-over-year to $226,186.

“The number of completed and unabsorbed condos is up 35 percent over last year. New units resulting from condominium development projects that started two years ago are now coming onto the market and generating a spike in inventory in this segment,” said Norm Fisher, owner and broker, Royal LePage Vidorra. “This is leading to some price softness in the condominium segment and creating a window of opportunity for buyers.”

Nationally, Canada’s residential real estate market showed strong year-over-year price increases in the first quarter of 2016.  The Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate markets continue to lead the country in home price appreciation, with Canada’s economic landscape supporting robust housing demand in these metropolitan areas.  Additionally, an emerging trend of inter-provincial migration to British Columbia and Ontario from commodity-focused economic regions such as Alberta is expected to put further upward pressure on home prices in these areas in the coming months.

The price of a home in Canada increased 7.9 percent year-over-year to $512,621 in the first quarter of 2016.  The price of a two-storey home rose 9.2 percent year-over-year to $629,177, and the price of a bungalow increased 6.8 percent to $426,216.  During the same period, the price of a condominium increased 4.0 percent to $344,491.

“A glance at our national house price composite points to a very strong Canadian real estate market, yet the findings contain extreme regional disparities of the kind we haven’t seen in over a decade,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “Like an economic triumvirate, the impact of rock-bottom interest rates, the low Canadian dollar and a rapidly expanding U.S. workforce are stimulating economic growth and housing demand in our largest metropolitan areas. Conversely, in cities like Calgary, the ongoing drags in depressed energy prices and worrisome employment trends have taken a material bite out of sales volumes. As a lagging indicator, home prices in Alberta and Newfoundland are just beginning to adjust to the lower demand.”

“Redistribution of labour across the country is further reinforcing disparities among housing markets, as the broader impacts of the oil recession on Alberta’s economy take hold.  For the first time in many years, we are witnessing an out-migration trend in the province, as economic conditions and employment prospects dim,” continued Soper. “We expect British Columbia, followed by Ontario, to be the top recipients of new household inflows in the coming year, which will further fuel housing demand and price appreciation in Greater Vancouver and the GTA.  This is in sharp contrast to the situation from 2011 to 2014, and in the mid 2000’s, when a booming energy sector attracted families from all over Canada to Alberta.”

Read also: Global News - Increased inventory drives down Saskatoon condo prices