Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released their 3rdquarter Canadian housing forecast this morning. With hundreds of billions of dollars riding on insured mortgages, nobody will claim that CMHC doesn’t have a fair bit of skin in the real estate market and is not exactly an unbiased source. Just the same, they have a significant voice with the national media and there's little doubt this report will be all over the news today.
…Sales of existing homes through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) strengthened steadily through 2009 and remained strong for the first half of 2010. For the remainder of 2010, MLS® sales will decline and will stabilize at more sustainable levels in 2011. Overall, 463,800 sales are expected in 2010, followed by 456,000 in 2011.
The average MLS® price is expected to edge lower in the third quarter of 2010 with modest growth resuming thereafter as balanced market conditions curtail the upward pressure on house prices. For 2010, the average MLS® price will be $338,900 while 2011 will see a slight increase to $342,200.
…The slower pace of price increases, coupled with historically low mortgage rates, improved affordability and stimulated housing demand in the first half of 2010.The strong gains in the first half of the year will be offset by a moderation in existing home sales in the second half as mortgage rates rise and pent-up demand is exhausted. Accordingly, resales in 2010 are expected to dip below last year’s annual level before advancing in 2011 on the strength of an improved labour market and increased demand supported by migration patterns.
Existing home prices in Saskatchewan will rise modestly through the balance of the year and going into 2011, reflecting balanced market conditions. Active listings have moved higher and this will ensure price growth remains modest over the forecast period. Accordingly, the average MLS® price will increase to $239,250 in 2010 and to $246,200 the following year.
So there you have it. Even as bubble talkcontinues to capture the interest of the national media, CMHC chimes in to predict a stable market through 2011.
Read CMHC’s Housing Market Outlook, Canadian Edition is here.
The Saskatoon version of this report should be out in a few days. I will add a link to this post.
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