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How would a housing downturn affect Canada’s economy?

In a follow up to its recently released report titled, “House prices likely to fall for several years,” Capital Economics says that a housing downturn will hit Canada’s economy hard, much like it did in the United States.


The overview of the report argues the following points, and others.

  • The now inevitable downturn in the housing sector will severely constrain economic growth over the next couple of years, as consumption expands at a more muted pace and housing investment shrinks back towards a more normal size. Economic growth will rely increasingly on business investment and net exports.
  • Over the last several years, growth in consumption has far outstripped income gains, as households have gone on a spending binge, funded by credit growth and home equity extraction.
  • With household balance sheets stretched and house prices expected to fall, however, we forecast that growth in consumption spending will lag income growth for the next couple of years, as households focus on rebuilding their saving rate.
  • House prices have been growing rapidly for nearly a decade now and it has reached the point where housing is so overvalued relative to incomes that a downward correction seems unavoidable. We fear that house prices could fall by as much as 25% over the next three years.

The complete report from Capital Economics can be found here.


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Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Vidorra

Norm Fisher, Author of the TeamFisher Saskatoon Real Estate Blog

About Norm

Licensed in 1993, Norm brings a wealth of experience to TeamFisher. He has worked in every imaginable capacity including sales agent, office manager, team leader, broker and now, broker/owner. Norm has written a weekly review of the Saskatoon real estate market for more than 650 consecutive weeks which may make him the most consistent industry blogger in the world.Less...

Licensed in 1993, Norm brings a wealth of experience to TeamFisher. He has worked in every imaginable capacity including sales agent, office manager, team leader, broker and now, broker/owner. Norm has written a weekly review of the Saskatoon real estate market for more than 650 consecutive weeks which may make him the most consistent industry blogger in the world.

Norm is known for his passion for technology and can most often be found exploring and experimenting with the next big thing in real estate marketing. He was the first Saskatoon real estate agent to promote a home online and has been an early adopter of new technologies ever since. “Everything about this business has changed over the past 20 years, and it will happen again in the next ten. An open mind and a curious attitude are all that’s needed to continue to find new ways to serve our clients by delivering a faster, smoother, worry-free transaction,” says Norm.

In his spare time, Norm enjoys Crossfit and cycling, some years accumulating over 2,000 kilometres on the road. He’s a strong supporter of the Royal LePage Shelter Foundation and enjoys raising funds by joining fun, fitness-related initiatives like the Grouse Grind for Shelter. In 2015, he trekked the Peruvian Andes to Machu Picchu. In 2017 he walked the southern highlands of Iceland across mountains, sand, snow, ice, lava fields and forest for seven days. Collectively those initiatives raised over a million dollars for Canadian women's shelters.
 

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