In their latest Provincial Outlook, RBC has downgraded projections for economic growth in Saskatchewan over 2008 and 2009, but still expects the provincial economy to perform better than all other provinces, except Alberta. In spite of this short-term downgrade, RBC does seem particularly bullish on the potential for Saskatchewan’s future providing that “the risks of overheated housing and commodity cycles” are properly managed.
RBC economists point to a heated Saskatchewan economy through 2007, which was largely driven by a “sharp reversal in net-migration outflows to inflows, the resulting pick-up in housing markets, strength in job gains, and high commodity prices.”
However, RBC warns that “cracks are appearing” in Saskatchewan’s economy.“Strained housing affordability that has pushed into record territory will crimp housing demand going forward because robust price gains are considerably out of whack with underlying fundamentals.”
“However, a variety of capital investments will support the non-residential sector… If Saskatchewan plays its cards right, then its early fortunes could become an embarrassment of riches for a small population through the triple play of diamond mining, renewed interest in developing its rich uranium deposits and a quickening pace of development in the immensely rich but challenging Bakken formation thanks to high oil prices and better technology… This offers Alberta-style future economic potential for a 70% smaller population, but requires managing the risks of overheated housing and commodity cycles.”
Read the RBC Provincial Outlook here
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Norm Fisher Royal LePage Vidorra
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