Providing analysis of what has happened in the Saskatoon real estate market takes a lot of work, but reviewing statistics and crunching numbers normally produces a pretty accurate result.
Predicting the future of a market is much simpler. You review what’s been happening lately, evaluate factors which may impact the market, fill your press release with all kinds of cool intelligent words and provided that you are smart enough to forecast early and waaaaaay into the future, sufficient time will pass and people will forget whatever you’ve said by the time your prediction fails. Simple!
Being correct in a market forecast is much more difficult. I could report a number of failures of my own, but I won’t, because this is my blog. :)
Today, I happened across a copy of the RBC Housing Forecast for 2007. Written sometime over the early months of this year, the report includes some real gems which drive home the point that even the brightest minds that economics can produce sometimes can’t see the forest for the trees.
“The western provinces continue to show signs of price growth topping out with British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan all likely having reached pinnacles in the pace of price appreciation.”
Don’t you wish they could have told us that in January?
With respect to Saskatchewan specifically, the report indicates, “…we anticipate housing affordability to ameliorate in the coming quarters as markets continue to cool” (ameliorate is an impressive word which economists use to say “improve”. :)
Let’s hope that things don’t “continue to cool” at this pace all year long.
What’s most startling about this particular “forecast” is that it was just released last week.
Apparently, it’s hard to get an economist’s attention once his work has begun.I’ve always understood that they can’t see what’s going on in Saskatchewan from Toronto, where I suspect this report was prepared, but come on; the Saskatoon real estate market is so damned hot they should be able to feel it out there.
As for me, I anticipate that current market conditions will persist unabated until housing inventories begin to ameliorate and buyers begin to demonstrate substantial resistance. You can take that to the bank.
I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.
Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Vidorra