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As 2011 draws to a close it’s clear that Canadian housing has performed better than most expected this year. It’s also clear, that in some markets, buoyant conditions and aggressive price increases have some experts talking about a price bubble again. There are a wide range of commentary, opinions and predictions coming forward and I thought I’d share those that I’m currently aware of, from those who profess to be experts. So, what does 2012 have in store for the Canadian housing market? It depends on who you’re talking to.
 
BMO


BMO’s Douglas Porter expects the Bank of Canada to hold interest rates through 2012, perhaps even drop them further. According to Porter, Vancouver will lose its status as Canada’s hottest housing market being replaced by Calgary and Edmonton.


BMO’s five fearless forecasts for next year- Globe and Mail


TD Economics


TD also sees the most promising signs for a strong market in Calgary and Edmonton while Toronto and Vancouver will experience the most serious price corrections.


Estimating that Canadian home prices are 10-15 percent overvalued, TD predicts that resale activity across Canada will fall 2.4 percent in 2012 while prices decline by 1.9 percent on average.


In Saskatoon, TD expects sales to slide 2.3 percent while prices slip 2.1 percent. Meanwhile, new housing starts are expected to grow by 2.6 percent.


Get ready for housing market correction: TD - Financial Post Special Report: Regional Housing Markets- TD Economics


Bank of America Merrill Lynch


Merrill Lynch estimates that Canadian housing is 10 percent overvalued at the present time. They expect that weaker economic growth and an oversupply of condos will lead to a five percent drop in home prices through the first half of 2012 and further expect prices to end the year flat as economic activity accelerates.


Merrill: Classic bubble signs in Canadian market - Globe and Mail Home prices set to drop in 2012 - Star Phoenix


Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC)


Nationally, CMHC predicts housing starts will decline 2.2 percent while MLS sales rise roughly 1.9 percent and resale prices grow by 1.2 percent on average.


In Saskatchewan, CMHC expects that housing starts will increase a whopping 8.3 percent. Resale transactions will also grow but more moderately at six percent, while average resale prices gain two percent.


In Saskatoon, CMHC sees housing starts declining by 11 percent. Still, they’re predicting increases of roughly 1.4 percent in the cost of a new home. After reaching their highest level since 2007, resale activity will fall roughly 1.3 percent to 3,800 units while resale prices grow by 2.1 percent.


CMHC Housing Market Outlook, Canadian Edition, Q4 -2011 CMHC Housing Market Outlook, Saskatoon CMA, Fall 2011


RBC


“The oversupply of homes on the market continues to weigh on new construction especially given that sales activity is running at a below-average clip. This is even with rock-bottom mortgage rates and financial institutions putting an end to the tightening in lending standards for mortgages. The government continues to make efforts to encourage homeowners to refinance at today’s lower rates though the take-up rate on these initiatives has been limited. The bottom line is that until the supply of homes available for sale is reduced, construction activity will make a very limited contribution to economic growth. In turn, this will limit the improvement in prices restricting growth in household real estate assets.”


Economic and Financial Market Outlook: RBC Economics


The Economist


“In some countires, such as Australia, Canada and Sweden, prices wobbled and then surged to new highs. As a result, many property markets are still looking uncomfortably overvalued.”


House of horrors, part 2- The Economist


Remax


Nationally, Remax expects resale activity to increase marginally by one percent while prices grow by two percent.


In Saskatoon, the real estate company sees resale activity growing by approximately ten percent to roughly 4,500 units while prices rise about three percent (my estimates based on the charts included in the report).


Remax Housing Market Outlook, 2012


I have no doubt there are other bits of commentary and prediction that I’ve overlooked, so feel free to put them forward if you have them in the comments section below. More importantly, tell us where you think our real estate markets are headed next year.


Thanks for reading.


Happy new year!


I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions. All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call of email me.


Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Vidorra

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Saskatoon real estate week in review: December 26-30, 2011
The final week of sales for the Saskatoon real estate market closed as it always does. That being, very quietly. The city’s agents reported a total of 36 single-family home and condo sales to the Saskatoon multiple listing service®, 26 fewer homes then were sold the previous week, for an annual gain of six when compared against trades recorded during the same week in 2010.I’m always surprised when anyone lists their home over the holiday week, but 21 homes did find their way to the MLS® system this week, precisely the number that went live during the same week a year ago, but nearly half the number that were offered for sale the previous week.
 
The total inventory of active residential listings on the Saskatoon Multiple Listing Service® slipped again, as expected, falling 41 units from the previous week to 912 properties to finish well above the number recorded at the end of the same week last year when inventory plunged to just 788. It’s also worth pointing out that the same week last year closed on the 31st of December, so a slew of month end expired listings had just fallen out of the inventory when we made our weekly report. Likewise, this year, there are about 100 listings that will expire as the year closes later today, making the year-over-year gain to a less significant number than it appears today.


As of this morning, there are 510 single-family homes and 342 condominiums showing an active flag on the MLS®. By tomorrow, those numbers will have slipped to 483 and 315 respectively. At the close of the same week last year, the two categories sat at just 439 and 298 respectively. No matter how you slice it, it looks like we’ll be kicking off 2012 with nearly ten percent more inventory than we had had the opening of 2011. However, the chart for active listings makes it pretty clear that inventory levels at the start of the year don’t provide any solid signals as to where they might go.


Cancelled and withdrawn listings fell to nearly none as just nine sellers pulled their property from the market. Two of them did the immediate re-list hoping to convince the market that the listing is “new.”  Another 11 sellers changed their pricing strategy by bringing it down, while two more listings reached the end of their time on the market without a sale.


The average selling price of a Saskatoon home slipped lower to $311,341 after climbing close to $20,000 over the previous two weeks. The six-week average pushed higher by twenty-four hundred dollars from last week to finish at $316,608 for an annual gain of roughly nine thousand dollars. Finally, the four-week median fell back over three thousand dollars from last week to close the week at $300,888. That’s up nearly $21K from the close of the same week last year when it slipped to just $280,000, a number that was low enough to appear out of sync with what had become the norm at that time, and a level that we haven’t reached since then. The numbers coming into 2011 almost present a better baseline for comparison of year-over-year sale prices. Using those, we see growth in the six-week average of around $11,000 and a gain to the four-week median of just $6,400.



Overbidding was pretty much a thing of the past last week, except for a few new homes reported sold substantially higher than list price in spite of lengthy market times, which we typically count as having sold at list (assuming that some extras were negotiated into the deal). Full list price sales came in at just seven, while 29 of 36 firm sales required some back and forth at the negotiating table with the sellers giving up an average of $10,900 to successfully close the sale.


I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions. All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call of email me.


Norm Fisher

Royal LePage Vidorra

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Saskatoon real estate week in review: December 19-23, 2011
The Saskatoon real estate market continued to move at a faster pace than is typical for the final week leading up to Christmas. For the second consecutive week, local agents reported 63 house and condo sales to the multiple listing service® to top sales from the same week last year by 26. New listings also continued to move onto the system with a total of 41 additions in the same two categories, fewer than last week by 11 properties and up on a year-over-year basis by 13 homes.



The total inventory of active MLS® listings in the residential category continued on a downward trend and fell below 1,000 units for the first time since totals moved above that number in early February. As of this morning, there are 953 residential listings showing an active status on the system for a weekly decline of 55 units, but up when compared against the close of the same week last year by 31 properties. There are currently 540 single-family homes (detached houses) and 354 condominiums for sale in Saskatoon. At the close of the same week last year, those housing categories stood at 506 and 363, respectively.


Cancelled and withdrawn listings slipped lower to just 18 homes with eight of those immediately returning for another go at the market, most bearing a new price. Price changes were nearly non-existent at just three. Over the course of the week, 19 listings expired having reached the end of their term without finding a willing buyer.


The average selling price of a Saskatoon home inched up, ever so slightly, gaining just a few hundred dollars on last week to finish at $319,111. The weekly median sale price grew by $19,000 to close at $324,000. The six-week average dropped about fifteen hundred dollars to $314,274 to claim an annual gain of just over three thousand dollars, while the four-week median pushed higher by roughly two thousand dollars on the week, closing at $304,000.  That brings an annual gain of $15,000, the largest in several weeks.


Overbidding was once again out of fashion. Just one lucky Saskatoon home seller finished a deal for more than the asking price. That overbid sale came in $1,100 above the asking price. Another seven sellers found a buyer willing to pay them their full asking price while 55 of 63 completed deals required some back and forth at the negotiating table for an average discount of $10,467.



I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions. All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call of email me.


Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Vidorra

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Here’s a link to an article that’s part of a series that appears in Bridges in which Charles Hamilton gets a feel for a Saskatoon neighbourhood from a resident of the area. This one is about the Hudson Bay Parkarea of Saskatoon.


Angie Lato, a ten year resident of Hudson Bay Park says, "When I look out my front door there’s a Lutheran Church, a seniors’ care home and the Catholic Elementary School and I was raising a family. I thought ‘you can’t get much better than this.’ The area has nice little crescents and a real sense of community. I felt that right from the beginning. It was an easy choice. We’re a really small area though – a little triangle on the map.”


Read the entire article here.


See our neighbourhood page of Hudson Bay Park.


I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions. All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call of email me.


Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Vidorra

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The design for the Remai Art Gallery of Saskatchewan has been selected as one of eight 2011 Award of Excellence recipients by Canadian Architect magazine and is featured on the coverof this month’s issue.


According to the story in the Star Phoenix, the $84 million gallery was selected from “163 submissions judged by a jury of Canada’s top architects.”


The gallery will be constructed at River Landing in Saskatoon’s Central Business Districtbeginning in 2012 with an anticipated completion in late 2014.


Read: Remai gallery receives national award.


I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.


Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS® listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.


Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Vidorra

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Saskatoon real estate week in review: December 12-16, 2011
Saskatoon housing sales continued at a pace that was busier than we would expect at this time of year. Local agents reported a total of 63 detached house and condominium sales to the multiple listing service® this week for a weekly gain of seven units, beating sales for the same week a year agoby 22 homes.


New listings came in lower than sales this week as would be sellers delayed their entrance to the market until after the holidays pass. Total house and condo listings came in at 52, a drop of seven from the previous weekto finish roughly on par with new listings for the same period a year ago.


Click the image for a larger version of the graph.


Total MLS® listings in the residential category took a fairly good drop but still finished the week at levels above last year’s. As of this morning, there where 1,008 residential listings showing an active status for a weekly decline of 54 properties and an annual gain of 41. Today, buyers will find 571 single-family homes and 373 condominiums available for purchase. Last year at this time, those categories stood at 527 and 382, respectively. You may recall that over the past couple of years, single-family home inventory has rarely been up on a year-over-year basis. It currently sits eight percent higher than it was at this time last year.


Still, these numbers strike me as fairly healthy, assuming that sales in the first quarter of next year are able to match the five-year average for this area, which I expect will be the case. By contrast, look to Regina’s inventory that currently sits at only 421 residential units including 334 single-family homes and just 63 condominiums. Unless those numbers see a sharp increase in the early next year, we could see some sharp price increases there in early 2012. Looking back about ten years, Saskatoon home prices where at about a twenty percent premium compared to Regina. This year, we’ll wrap the year up with a difference of around eight percent. I expect that we’ll see that gap close even more by spring of next year.


Click the image for a larger version of the graph.


Cancelled and withdrawn listings pushed a bit higher this week at 30 units. In a rare twist, surely related to the holidays, fewer than half of those returned to the market as a new listing. An additional 17 Saskatoon home sellers adjusted the asking price on their home. Meanwhile, 27 MLS® listings came to the end of their term and expired without a sale.


Following a fairly sharp decline last week, the average selling price of a Saskatoon home bounced back to $318,716. The weekly median sale price also bounced back in a big way picking up about $30K to finish in the more normal range of $305,000. The six-week median price slipped a little more than a thousand dollars from last week to $315,874 for an annual gain of just four thousand dollars. The four-week median gained about as much on a weekly basis to finish at $301,888 claiming an annual gain of just under five thousand dollars. Prices appear to be wrapping up the year very close to where they were at the close of 2010.


Click the image for a larger version of the graph.


One lucky Saskatoon home seller managed to complete a deal for $5,000 more than their asking price on the first day that the home was offered for sale. An additional seven found a buyer who was willing to offer the full asking price. The remaining 55 sellers sharpened their pencils to wrap up a firm sale at an average discount of $10,230.


Click the image for a larger version of the chart.


Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS® listings from all real estate brands with the most detail and information available anywhere. Check it out here.


I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.


Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Vidorra

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Saskatoon’s future is bright, according to a report presented to city council on Monday night. The 215-page report, prepared by MXD Developments Strategistsof Vancouver projects that Saskatoon’s population would hit 325,000 by 2028. By then, the city will require six new hotels, a thirty percent expansion in retail space from 10 million square feet to 13 million square feet, and an forty-five percent expansion of industrial space from the current 15.2 million square feet to 22.3 million square feet.


The primary recommendation in the report is a relaxing of the current direct control zoning regulations that limit the types and numbers of businesses that can operate in suburban areas.


City administration will study the report and bring their recommendations to council in the near future.


Read: Report forecasts major growth from the Star Phoenix here.


I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.


Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS® listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.


Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Vidorra

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Allow me to draw your attention to Les MacPherson’s column, in today’s Star Phoenix titled, “Buyer beware when it comes to home purchase.”


The Buyers bought the condo and took possession in June of last year. In spite of a musty smell in the basement when they were shown the property, they did not have a home inspection done. Their Realtor told them an inspection was not necessary, they testified. Like quite a few other new homeowners, they soon would find out otherwise.


Soon after they moved in, the Buyers took out a wall between the kitchen and the den. Inside they discovered three dead mice. Exterminators later found in the basement walls a whole mouse city, with an estimated 100 nests. While no live mice were present, there were plenty of dead ones, some covered in maggots. Framing and drywall were ruined by mouse urine.


Read more here.


Like it or not, this story drives home the importance of conducting your own due diligence when purchasing a home. Most interesting, to me, is the reference to the newest Property Condition Disclosure Statementwhich urges buyers to have the property inspected. You simply can’t rely on the representations of a seller when it comes to property condition issues. No matter what your agent or the seller might say, courts expect buyers to take reasonable actions to protect themselves. Is a home inspection always a reasonable action? I think so. Apparently, the courts think so too.


I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.


Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS® listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.


Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Vidorra

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Saskatoon real estate week in review: December 5-9, 2011
Saskatoon real estate sales and new listing activity both fell back in line with historical norms this week. Agents reported a total of 56 house and condo sales to the multiple listing service®, a decline of 20 units when compared to the previous weekbut on par with sales reported for the same week last year.


Coming off of the strongest week for new listings in two months time, numbers fell sharply by 44 units compared to last week but finished five units lower than the new listing total for the same time period in 2010.


Click the image for a larger version of the graph.


Total active listings in the residential category slipped lower again, but they’re moving lower at a slower pace than is typical at this time of year. The numbers slipped by just 13 from last week to 1062 and finished higher on a year-over-year basis for the fourth consecutive week, this week logging the largest annual gain of 66 properties. Today’s active inventory shows 602 single-family homes and 396 condominiums. Last year at this time, those two categories stood at 544 and 395 respectively.


Click the image for a larger version of the graph.


Cancelled and withdrawn listings continued to decline as just twenty-four properties were pulled for the market. Eleven of those reappeared the same day as a new listing. An additional 32 sellers adjusted their price hoping for an early Christmas gift in the form of a sold sign. Another 17 listings came off of the market when they expired at the end of their term without a sale.


Weekly prices slipped lower again as the average sale price of a Saskatoon home fell more than fifteen thousand dollars from last week to $303,521. The median price slid even more dropping almost thirty thousand dollars from last week to close at just $275,100. Still, the six-week average sale price managed to increase by two thousand dollars to $317,007 for an annual gain of over seven thousand dollars. The four-week median price slipped two thousand dollars from last week to $297,850 and finished marginally lower on an annual basis for the second week in a row.


Click the image for a larger version of the graph.


For the first week in almost a year, there were no overbid sales reported. Eleven sellers did manage to close a sale at their full asking price while 45 of 56 sales required some pencil sharpening to close. In those instances, buyers managed an average discount of $10,659.


Click the image for a larger version of the chart.


Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS® listings from all real estate brands with the most detail and information available anywhere. Check it out here.


I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.


Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Vidorra

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Zoning changes proposed by Victory Majors Investments that make River Landing Village “economical” were approved by Saskatoon city council at their November 22nd meeting. The Meewasin Valley Authority(MVA) followed with their approval on Friday, paving the way for a potential spring of 2012 ground breaking.


Victory Major Investments took over the project from Lake Placid Developmentslast year when the developer failed to secure adequate financing. Initially, Victory promised quick action on getting the project started but later petitioned the city for changes to the previously approved project.


The approved changes have the potential building height increasing to 95 meters, from 68 meters, commercial space increasing from 30% to 40% and the allowable floor space increasing by as much as 50 percent.


The MVA is a conservation organization dedicated to conserving the natural and cultural heritage resources of the South Saskatchewan River Valley in Saskatoon. As such, all of the development at River Landing in Saskatoon’s Central Business Districtmust meet their approval.


Read: Zoning changes approved for River Landing project.

Read: MVA greenlights art gallery, Nasar Magaproject in River Landing.


I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.


Our Saskatoon home search tool offers MLS® listings represented by all real estate brands, presented with more detail than you’ll find anywhere else. Check it out here.


Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Vidorra

Read
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